‘Reform voters could leave us on just 57 seats’, says new Tory election ad

The Conservatives have released an advert suggesting they could be reduced to a rump of 57 seats, as their election campaign turns increasingly defensive.

The video warns that people voting for Reform UK could leave the Tories in third place, behind the Liberal Democrats, and gift Sir Keir Starmer the “largest majority Labour have ever had”, meaning there will be “no one holding [him] to account”.

With Labour still leading the Tories by about 20 points in the polls, with just over three weeks to go, Rishi Sunak’s campaign increasingly appears to be aimed at limiting his losses.

In recent days, the Conservatives have released a slew of social media ads warning of the consequences of Labour winning a huge majority.

In their latest Facebook ad, launched on June 10, they suggest that people voting for Reform or the Lib Dems could leave the Tories almost wiped out, with the lowest number of seats in their history.

The video presents a scenario where Labour get 43 per cent vote share and 490 seats, while the Tories get 19 per cent and are reduced to just 57, eclipsed by the Lib Dems who get 61 seats with 10 per cent of the vote.

In the scenario, Reform are one point behind the Tories on 18 per cent but are shown with “still no seats”.

As the poll is seen, the narrator says: “The more votes for Reform, the Liberal Democrats or anyone else will hand Labour a hundred extra seats, giving Keir Starmer the largest majority Labour have ever had.”

She goes on: “A vote for Reform or the Lib Dems means you’ll have no one holding Keir Starmer to account on your behalf.

“This means you’ll be handing him a blank cheque to spend on anything he wants with no control over what it’ll cost you. Are you sure that’s what you want to vote for?”

Other ads paid for by the Tories on Facebook warn that if people vote variously for Reform, the Lib Dems or Labour “you’ll hand Keir Starmer a massive majority and pay the price”.

Another ad shows a mocked-up image of Sir Keir standing on the shoulders of Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey and Reform leader Nigel Farage, brandishing a red piggy bank above his head. “A vote for Reform or the Liberal Democrats means you’ll have no-one holding to account on your behalf,” it says.

James Frayne, the co-founder of research and opinion consultancy Public First, questioned whether the strategy would work in shoring up Tory support.

“The Conservatives have gone beyond the point of no return with so many voters that scaring them about the prospect of a massive Labour majority won’t work,” he said. “Many will welcome it.”

He went on: “Back in 2015, David Cameron could scare voters about the prospect of a Labour/SNP double act, which looked a real prospect at the time.

“But Rishi Sunak is no David Cameron and Starmer just doesn’t worry voters like past Labour leaders.”

The ads are not the only sign that the Tories are focusing on limiting their losses.

Analysis by The Telegraph has found that the overwhelming majority of seats visited by Mr Sunak in the campaign are ones which the Tories currently hold, with some of them won with massive majorities in 2019.

On average, the seats he has visited have majorities of 22.8 percentage points.

A number of MRP polls have suggested that Mr Sunak could get fewer seats than the 156 seats the Tories achieved in 1906 – the worst result in the party’s history.

One large-scale MPR poll carried out by Electoral Calculus last month suggested the Tories could end up with just 66 seats.