Rishi Sunak's Rwanda bill: What we know and don't know

MPs will vote tonight on Rishi Sunak's controversial Rwanda bill, which proposes sending some asylum seekers to Rwanda in a move that has already been ruled unlawful by the Supreme Court.

Make no mistake, the vote is a crucial one for the prime minister. Amid concerns over a rebellion from MPs on the right of the Conservative Party, Sunak has been meeting MPs to try and secure support from potential rebels - including at a Downing Street breakfast. It remains unclear whether he has managed to convince enough Tory MPs to back his bill and the vote is set to be a tight one.

Numerous charities including Human Rights Watch and Medicins Sans Frontiers (MSF) have criticised the government's Rwanda plan - calling into question the claim that the country is indeed safe for refugees and highlighting recorded instances of torture and limited political freedom.

Ahead of the vote, here's what we do and don't know about the Rwanda bill.

What we know

What is the Rwanda bill?

The legislation (the Safety of Rwanda Bill 2023) was introduced as a response to the Supreme Court ruling that the government's plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda was unlawful. The government drafted a new bill to declare decision-makers should treat Rwanda as a "safe country" for asylum seekers, and to attempt to stem any further legal challenges to the Rwanda plan.

However, Human Rights Watch criticised the government's Rwanda plan as "grotesque", suggesting the new treaty would not make the country safer for refugees.

When is the Rwanda vote?

MPs will vote on the bill's second reading at around 7pm on Tuesday, 12 December. The vote will decide whether the bill should progress to the next stage - where it will be further debated.

Where is Rwanda?

Rwanda is a landlocked country in east-central Africa, bordered by Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, and Uganda. The former German (and, later, Belgian) colony gained independence in 1962, which also marked a period of increasing violence in the country between the Hutu and Tutsi groups in the country as a result of colonial-enforced division.

In the 1990s, the civil war and resulting genocide in the country saw around 77% of the Tutsi population killed (estimates range from 800,000 to more than one million deaths) and an estimated 250,000 women raped. In the aftermath of the genocide, Rwanda invaded the neighbouring DRC, where many of the perpetrators had fled - leading to two wars between the countries between 1997 and 2003.

What we don't know

Is Rwanda safe for refugees?

This is the crux of the matter - the Supreme Court says no, but the new bill say yes.

According to the Supreme Court ruling, sending asylum seekers to have their claims heard in Rwanda is unlawful because it is not a safe third country for refugees - who could face ill-treatment there (known in law as refoulement). Following that ruling, the Rwandan government said: "We take our humanitarian responsibilities seriously, and will continue to live up to them", and the British government has responded by drawing up a new treaty that Home Secretary James Cleverly claims removes the risk of refoulement.

The treaty also seeks assurances from Rwanda that anyone sent there will not be further removed to another country.

The treaty includes the UK covering living costs of relocated refugees for five years; British judges to oversee the appeals process; and monitoring to ensure Rwanda is treating refugees according to its international obligations.

"The UK can’t legislate its way around the fact that Rwanda counters criticism with violence and abuse, including against refugees," wrote HRW Central Africa director Lewis Mudge.

He also highlighted the disappearances, torture, media restrictions and limited political freedom in Rwanda - where President Paul Kagame has been in power since 2000. The legitimacy of his most recent election victory (in 2017) was called into question internationally after he won 99% of the vote.

Why it matters?

It's a big day for the embattled prime minister, whose approval rating among the grassroots is currently at an all-time low of -25.4. After a blow over the Supreme Court's decision on the Rwanda policy, panic Cabinet reshuffle and Tory backlash over an increase in net migration, Sunak's position is not an enviable one.

Around 40 rightwing MPs met on Monday night to discuss their concerns, and, the chair of the New Conservatives faction told the Financial Times, "Every member of that discussion said the bill needs major surgery or replacement and they will be making that plain in the morning to the PM at breakfast and over the next 24 hours."

A rebellion over the Rwanda bill (which will likely be torpedoed if 29 MPs vote against it) would be a huge embarrassment for Sunak, further exacerbating the growing cracks in the party and potentially triggering questions about his future as a leader. Given his polling, it will also raise questions as to what - if anything - the prime minister will be able to achieve ahead of the next general election (and when one should be held).

If Sunak wins the vote, the issue is by no means resolved. Rebels who have been persuaded to side with the PM on this occasion have already made it clear that they will expect concessions on the bill going forward. And given that the next stage of the bill would mean further discussion and debate, there will be future opportunities for objections to be raised.

There is also the question of actual policy implementation and how many people are likely to be removed to Rwanda prior to the next general election. A Labour victory at this stage would also bring the plan to a swift end.