Omicron wave may be slowing as Covid cases drop again — but over-75s still at risk

Coronavirus cases fell for the second day in a row in Britain on Thursday, with daily figures now lower than a week ago - leading to hopes the omicron wave is slowing.

A further 179,756 cases were added to official figures, down from 189,213 on December 30 - a four per cent drop.

Cases are continuing to fall in London and there is evidence that steep rises are beginning to tail off in the North West, the South East, the East Midlands and the East of England.

There were also 269 fewer people admitted to hospital in England on January 4, the most recent date for which figures are available, compared to the previous week.

The number of Covid patients in mechanical ventilator beds has also fallen by 2.6 per cent in the last week.

The King’s College ZOE app also showed that cases were continuing to fall in London and were slowing in the regions. However, the team warned that rates were rising in older age groups who are more at risk of hospitalisation.

Dr Claire Steves, scientist on the ZOE Covid Study app and reader at King’s College London, said: “It’s good news that the number of daily new cases has slowed for now.

“However, it’s worrying to see cases increasing in the over-75 age group. This is the group we need to protect, as they are the most likely to be hospitalised as a result of a Covid infection."

A separate study found that the risk of dying increased by 40 per cent for everyone in Britain during the first wave of the pandemic.

Scientists from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and University College London discovered that life expectancy declined for all groups of people regardless of their health status.

The research found that people who were already at higher risk of dying early suffered worse, but even healthy individuals were not exempt from the impact of the pandemic.

Although the researchers did not look at the reasons for the excess all-cause mortality rates, experts said that some of the increased risk may be causes other than Covid.

There have been growing concerns that lockdowns had a detrimental effect on health because of lowered activity levels, increased alcohol consumption, damaging mental health and preventing people from accessing healthcare.

The general stress of living through a pandemic may also have played a role.

'Life expectancy declined for all groups of people'

Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology, University of Reading, said: “These data show that everyone’s risk of dying, whatever the cause, increased by a similar amount during the first flush of the pandemic.

“While for some people, this extra risk will have come from the risk of catching Covid-19 itself, others will have died in greater numbers due to other reasons influenced by the pandemic and its impact on their health.

However, Dr Clarke warned that death rates may have been higher without lockdown.

“Many of these factors – such as stress, exposure to other diseases, lack of access to healthcare – may have been much worse had there not been a lockdown,” he added.

Researchers estimated excess mortality in 10 million over-40s in the UK during the 12 weeks of the first wave of the epidemic between the spring and autumn of 2020.

On average, the rate of death from all causes increased by just over 40 per cent compared to before the pandemic, regardless of people’s health conditions and other characteristics.

However, the mortality rates of those with dementia and learning difficulties were disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Usually the risk of death for those groups is three times higher but during the pandemic it rose to five times higher.

On average there were 1.5 excess deaths per 1,000 people during the 12 weeks of the first wave.

Dr Helen Strongman from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who co-led the research, said: “Life expectancy declined for all groups of people regardless of their health status with the risk of dying increased by the same relative proportion (by around 40%) for most subgroups of the population.

“Our study shows that SARS-CoV is a predatory virus, amplifying mortality rates across the board, and having the biggest impact on those with existing ill health or who are frail.”