Russia ‘in very fragile position’ and bracing for ‘major’ Ukrainian counterattack, say UK

Russia is in a “very fragile position” as it braces for a major Ukrainian counterattack, the UK has said as Vladimir Putin’s war hit the six-month mark.

British defence secretary Ben Wallace, who was briefed by intelligence chiefs on Wednesday morning, said Russia’s advance “is grinding” in parts of Ukraine.

Speaking as Ukraine celebrates its 31st Independence Day, Mr Wallace told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Russia’s advance can be measured in metres per week, not miles. It is grinding in small parts of the country in an attempt to advance – completely opposite of the three-days special operation that it touted at the beginning of this, six months ago.

“We pretty much accept, well, we do accept, the sort of observations of Russian losses to be – if you combine deaths, injuries, desertions – over 80,000 of their armed forces. That’s 80,000 in six months compared to 15,000 they lost in a decade in Afghanistan.

“I think we are in a position where Russia is in a very fragile position.”

He added that the morale of Ukrainian troops is “leagues ahead” of the spirits of Russian’s “poorly-trained” troops.

In an update on Wednesday morning, the UK’s Ministry of Defence also said that Russian commanders are anticipating a “major Ukrainian counterattack”, while suffering a shortage of military equipment.

It said: “The Donbas offensive is making minimal progress and Russia anticipates a major Ukrainian counterattack.

“Operationally, Russia is suffering from shortages of munitions, vehicles and personnel. Morale is poor in many parts of its military and its army is significantly degraded. Its diplomatic power has been diminished and its long-term economic outlook is bleak.”

The last six months of war have proven both “costly and strategically harmful,” the MoD added.

The war has killed thousands of civilians, forced over a third of Ukraine’s 41 million people from their homes, left cities in ruins and shaken global markets. It is largely at a standstill with no immediate prospect of peace talks.

Meanwhile, Ukrainians are on Wednesday marking 31 years since they broke free from the Russia-dominated Soviet Union.

It will be observed with subdued celebrations under the threat of further Russian attacks. Public gatherings are banned in the capital Kyiv and a curfew is in force in the front-line eastern city of Kharkiv, which has weathered months of shelling.

The government laid out the remains of burnt-out Russian tanks and armoured vehicles like war trophies in central Kyiv in a show of defiance.

On Tuesday night, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky warned of the possibility of “repugnant Russian provocations”.

“We are fighting against the most terrible threat to our statehood and also at a time when we have achieved the greatest level of national unity,” Mr Zelensky said.