The seeds of Starmer’s downfall have already been sown

The Labour party’s members are extremely happy this morning. It’s understandable. As things stand, they are predicted to win a massive 170 seat majority, just short of that won by Tony Blair in 1997. And yet that happiness may be misplaced. Look at the sheer scale of the expected swing – 209 seats – and then look at the figures underlying it. It is likely that Labour has done little better in terms of vote share than it did in 2017, and it is led by a man who will have the lowest favourability rating of any incoming Prime Minister, ever.

It illustrates two things. The first is that this was not a vote for Labour, but against the Tories. The second is that once deep tribal loyalties to mainstream parties are dissolving. And they are no less vulnerable to this trend than their Conservative opponents – a lesson they learned in 2019, when Labour heartlands were won over by Boris Johnson.

This is not 1997. This election is defined not by hope and optimism, but by despair and rage at the state of a declining country and a despised political class. That anger has been vented tonight against the Tories, and to Labour’s benefit. But where will it go next?

The sources of this anger are economic stagnation, urban decay, unprecedented mass migration and with these things a collapse in social trust, both in our institutions and one another. If Labour doesn’t turn these trends around, it will be next on the chopping block.

How bad could things get, and how fast? Labour should not underestimate the dangers. In 1906, the Liberal Party won their largest ever victory, taking 214 seats from the Conservatives. They would never secure a parliamentary majority again, and after a series of bitter internal disputes, and challenges from the Labour party, disappeared forever.

Across Europe, old and respected parties have disappeared into obscurity in the face of populist parties of Left and Right, and as this election shows, First Past the Post can mean that when the end comes, it can come very fast indeed