The six key points that will decide how long Vaughan Gething can last as First Minister

When the majority of members in the parliament in which you sit has said they have “no confidence” in you, there has to be a feeling your days are numbered.

After First Minister Vaughan Gething lost a vote inside the Senedd because his own members wouldn’t back him, both his supporters and the Labour machine went all out decrying the vote as a “gimmick” with the phrase “non-binding” being in almost every sentence.

Senior members of the UK party tied themselves in knots trying to defend it. Member of the shadow cabinet Emily Thornberry embarrassed herself on national radio earlier this week when asked whether it would have been different if Keir Starmer had lost a vote in the House of Commons.

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Given the unprecedented nature of Mr Gething’s loss, it begs the question of how long he will remain First Minister? To try to get to the bottom of this, I spoke to experts, activists and elected representatives to try and understand the current mood in the party.

How bad are things for Vaughan Gething at the moment?

It is hard to overstate how precarious his position is right now and there is now actually a fair bit of data underpinning this.

Director of the Wales Governance Centre and politics professor Richard Wyn Jones told the Western Mail: “From the public attitude data that we have, we now have enough for me to feel confident talking about it. It shows two things.

“It shows that he has got high visibility. The amount of people who answer ‘don’t know’ when asked about him is right down. Secondly the data shows that people don’t particularly like him. That is the brutal reality.”

When the public in Wales are polled on the specifics of the donation Mr Gething took the results are stark. The latest Redfield and Wilton poll suggested he holds a net approval rating of -17%, down 27-points from last month. The poll finds only 18% (-15) of voters now approve of Gething’s overall job performance as First Minister of Wales. He is even now behind the unpopular Conservative leader Andrew RT Davies when people are polled on who would make a better First Minister.

The decision to accept a £200,000 donation from a man convicted of environmental offence has tarnished Mr Gething’s premiership.

Speaking to activists, several have said that the donations issue is coming up increasingly on the doorstep in recent weeks. “To suggest it hasn’t been cut through is simply not correct,” said one.

Another said: “Vaughan has been out canvassing with our General Election candidates and it’s astonishing we are allowing it to happen. Him being with us to knock doors drags us down.”

People are still furious

If Mr Gething and his team thought that time would heal the wounds of the contentious leadership contest they were sadly mistaken. But it isn’t just the fact the campaign itself was bruising, what with the union stitch-up and huge spending imbalances, there is also how things have been conducted after.

Several people cited the treatment of staffers who had supported Jeremy Miles as a key example of Mr Gething’s failure to build bridges after the vote. There was also very real anger that Mr Gething’s acolytes worked with the UK Labour whips to pressure Welsh MSs ahead of the no-confidence vote. This was perceived as UK Labour interfering in Wales.

Damage to the Welsh Labour brand

The Welsh Labour brand is incredibly important. There is a reason that Scottish Labour was once nearly wiped out when Welsh Labour wasn’t. Welsh Labour have been historically really good at being different, at creating that “clear red water” as Mark Drakeford once wrote for Rhodri Morgan. This ability to stand apart from UK Labour is very valuable and has been a key factor in Welsh Labour winning every election in Wales for over 100 years.

But this is now under threat in a very real way.

Prof Wyn Jones said: “There is overwhelming evidence that the Welsh Labour brand is incredibly important. They are trashing the brand at present.”

One person out knocking doors for Labour told me: “This whole situation is really quite regrettable, and could have been easily avoided at so many junctures, during both the leadership campaign and Vaughan Gething’s time as leader. This situation was so foreseeable it really is amazing that we still have found ourselves in this situation. While our national party has campaigned on honesty and integrity (Boris Johnson’s partygate, Owen Paterson lobbying, Michelle Mone PPE, etc the list goes on), it is frankly embarrassing that at home in Wales we’ve been forced into defending the same arguments.

“Who knows whether Hannah Blythyn leaked or didn’t – she is very well regarded in north Wales and seen as trustworthy, but of course politics is politics – but sacking her so bluntly was self-destructive. (Ms Blythyn MS has strenuously denied the leak allegation.)

“After the cooperation agreement ended I warned my CLP that this was dangerous and that we risked a Humza Yousaf-style disintegration. We put ourselves in a position where one disaffected Labour MS could spoil it all, or we are relying on [Welsh Liberal Democrat leader] Jane Dodds!

“So when the confidence vote was announced, I had no faith that we’d come through. Lee Waters and Hannah Blythyn being ‘ill’ was unsurprising but who could blame them – it was deeply unhelpful but their support was hardly earned. Now we are told the vote means nothing. I think a vote of no confidence in the government may follow and perhaps those MSs will fall in line for that. But in the meantime, we are left an embarrassment.”

How is the Welsh Government going to pass a budget?

Aside from taking the donation in the first place, there are two big mistakes that Mr Gething has made and in both cases it stems from a seeming total unawareness of his own position.

The first is that he has acted like he has a majority in the Senedd – he does not. There was a reason he had an agreement with Plaid Cymru, because he needed them.

The second is that he acted like he has the support of a majority of his own MSs – he doesn’t. Most Labour members voted for Jeremy Miles in the leadership contest.

The problem is when you stroll around like you have power and support that you don’t really have, you eventually end up walking into the hard wall of reality. In Mr Gething’s case this will likely be the next budget.

How are Welsh Labour going to get their budget through this autumn? They only have 30 out of 60 Senedd Members. There is no way the Welsh Conservatives will vote through a budget. Plaid Cymru could very well demand Mr Gething step down in exchange for helping the budget pass. The only hope for Mr Gething is that he gets the lone Liberal Democrat Ms Dodds to support him much like Kirsty Williams did for Labour previously. But Ms Williams was given a cabinet position (education) in exchange for the support; would Ms Dodds accept a post of just over a year to back him?

I find it hard to imagine how he could bring her onside. Plus what would that say about her? She just said she had no confidence in him – why would she now prop him up?

It is worth adding that all the opponents likely want him to stay in post because, at present, he would be the largest of albatrosses around the neck of Welsh Labour going into a 2026 Senedd Election.

The best time for him to go is now

Even if he gets his budget through, when it comes to legislation it seems improbable that Mr Gething will be able to do much.

“My expectation is that he will attempt to do as little as possible and that will please the Welsh Parliamentary Labour Party,” said Prof Wyn Jones.

“The PLP very clearly wants him there. If you are looking at him in terms of survivability, it will ultimately come down to when the Labour party starts looking at the polling and taking it seriously.

“If they were taking it seriously they might think now is an easy point for him to step aside – given the General Election and the media’s obsession with the ins and outs of Farage.

“However it is also plausible that they will do what Conservative party is doing and stumble into the 2026 election with an unpopular leader.”

When will it get better?

Ultimately there are three ways Mr Gething goes: he resigns, his own party pushes him out or the Welsh Government loses a Senedd no confidence vote.

He has given absolutely no indication he will resign. If you won’t quit after losing a no confidence vote, when will you?

The chances of the Welsh Government losing a no confidence vote are slim. It would require a Labour member to vote against. It is one thing to vote against Mr Gething, but quite another to vote against your own party in government.

This just leaves the party to remove him. This only happens if he is seen by UK Labour as more a hindrance than a help. Once the General Election is done all eyes in Wales are on the Senedd election in 2026.

“We’re seeing one of the biggest gaps we’ve ever seen between Westminster vote intention for Labour and Senedd vote intention for Labour,” said Dr Jac Larner, a lecturer in political science at cardiff-university>Cardiff University speaking to the BBC.

“At the moment in the polls around 45% – just less than half – of all voters say they’ll vote Labour in a Westminster election but that goes down to about 30% in Senedd elections.

“You don’t want to read too much into that of course, but it does suggest that Labour at Welsh elections, at devolved elections, are at the moment considerably less popular than they are when it comes to Westminster elections.”

If this is the case in six months, you can see a scenario where the party moves against Mr Gething itself. Especially if they can’t get that budget through.