The SNP are struggling for relevance in an election dominated by a resurgent Labour

Paul Hutcheon

19 June 2024 at 5:53 pm·2-min read

The SNP are missing the magic ingredient they have possessed for over a decade in elections - relevance.

Alex Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon dominated Scottish politics, set the agenda and racked up landslide wins.

But John Swinney’s manifesto launch shows the SNP are struggling to give voters a compelling reason to vote Nationalist.

Every poll shows Labour is in line for a massive majority at Westminster and Keir Starmer is inches from Downing Street.

Even if the polls dip for Labour and the eventual majority is around 100, the SNP will have little relevance in a vastly-changed landscape.

Swinney's “number one ask”, as he put it to me in an interview, will be to ask Starmer for a referendum

He should save himself the price of a stamp.

There is more chance of Starmer making Jeremy Corbyn his Chancellor than of striking a deal with the SNP on a referendum.

Starmer will never agree to indyref2 while he is prime minister and the SNP cannot get around this road-block.

The SNP manifesto commitment on rejoining the EU is more rhetoric.

Starmer wants a better relationship with our European partners, but he will not alienate Red Wall voters by trying to unpick Brexit.

A huge Labour majority also means Starmer will not need the votes of SNP MPs for anything.

The most likely outcome of the election will be the SNP cast in the role as a centre-left pressure group trying to ensure Labour stays honest.

If Starmer dodges calls to scrap the two-child benefit cap, the SNP will be on the barricades crying betrayal.

If spending restraint continues, Swinney and SNP Westminster chief Stephen Flynn will pin NHS chaos on Labour.

Such attacks would have added potency in the run up to the next Holyrood election.

Swinney has stabilised the SNP to the extent that it is unclear whether his party will be routed on July 4.

The polls are yo-yoing in Scotland and it remains possible, albeit unlikely, that the SNP could remain the largest party north of the border.

But Swinney is no miracle worker and the overwhelming feeling is the SNP’s best days are in the past.

They won 56 seats in 2015, but Swinney would be delighted with 25 next month - a sign of decline.

Scots will decide in two weeks whether they want a party of protest or a party of government.

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