Swift exit to doomsday scenario: How Tommy Conway's Bristol City future could play out

At least one thing is clear, Tommy Conway won’t be front and centre for any new kit releases over the coming weeks and, with hindsight, his lack of presence on the promotional material for season tickets and the like was something of a hint as to what the summer was likely to hold.

Bristol City are preparing for the sale of their top scorer and the best player to emerge out of the academy since his flatmate Alex Scott; a title that continues to develop and evolve and there’s every chance we could be passing the torch to another in the near future.

Conway’s refusal to sign a new contract, aware of his place in the market and being made aware of interest elsewhere, has put him in such a position, 92 games into his professional career, with 25 goals scored for the Robins.

How this all plays out is unclear, there are best and worst-case scenarios for all parties and, no doubt, plenty that haven’t been conceived yet, such are the enduring unpredictabilities of football, both on and off the field.

We’ve tried to break it down into four likely endings to this saga (can we call it that yet?), and what that then means for City, Conway and everything else…

A swift resolution

Granted, the above adjective is open to interpretation because, ultimately, how swift is swift? It seems unlikely anything will be concluded during Conway’s participation at the European Championships which, based on the idea of Scotland exiting at the group stage (apologies to our readers north of the border), takes us to June 23, a few days before the Robins squad are due back at the High Performance Centre for pre-season testing.

Given his participation in Germany, even if he doesn’t earn any competitive minutes, Conway will be permitted time off because he’s still trained and travelled with Scotland and the Under-21s since the start of the month, so could well be in line for a holiday somewhere for at least a week, probably two.

That’s not to say work can’t be undertaken while he’s away, after all the burden of negotiating and driving a move is essentially down to staff within clubs and his representatives, the player simply needs to offer a yay or a nay down the phone before things start to get properly serious.

Look at Jason Knight 12 months ago; City were working on that transfer for some time, and it was pretty apparent he was leaving Derby County that summer, but after playing for the Republic of Ireland in their Euro 2024 qualifiers in mid-June, and then requiring a break, it wasn’t properly concluded until the end of the first week in July.

Realistically, taking all that into consideration, the earliest likely point - based on Scotland not progressing any further at Euro 2024, because that further delays matters - is around the second or third week of July, roughly a month out from the start of the season.

It’s not as if City have been caught on the hop with this news as, clearly, they’re been aware of the possibility of having to sell Conway in this window for some time so work has been undertaken to cover all eventualities and timelines.

The need for an immediate replacement, as in place to be in the team by August 10, could be mitigated slightly by what happens over the first few weeks of pre-season as Seb Palmer-Houlden and, to a lesser extent in a positional sense, Josh Stokes could have thrust themselves forward and given Liam Manning a number of reasons to suggest they can be real first-team candidates this term.

Should that happen, it eases a bit of the tension around the situation from the Robins perspective, beyond the need to bring in a No9, which is a transfer mission independent of what happens with Conway; whether he stays or goes and when that is is immaterial - City will be trying to buy a striker, anyway. That could become two, we probably don’t quite know yet.

To return to the initial point around the European Championships and why there’s unlikely to be activity during his participation at the tournament, it’s pretty self-explanatory as while clubs are sophisticated enough in their scouting not to consider performing on such a stage as the sole indicator for a player’s quality, you have to remember Conway is a Championship footballer. There will be clubs watching him curious as to how he adapts in games of greater grandeur and how that could translate to the Premier League or Scottish Premiership.

Unless there is a suitor out there absolutely dead set on signing him no matter what, and as it stands that doesn’t seem to be the case as clubs weigh up their options and shortlists, then it’s a little bit of a waiting game and while everyone wants this to be sorted sooner rather than later, it’s kind of in everyone’s interests to see how the next 10 days in Germany play out.

A late window exit

An inevitable follow-on from the above, is the prospect of Conway starting the season for City and ending the month of August wearing the colours of another team. This may not be the most comfortable of scenarios because while the 21-year-old is a consummate pro, well-liked by his teammates and staff and, to reiterate, while there is disagreement over his decision he retains a good working relationship with everyone at the HPC, it’s not going to create the best-possible environment for him from a supporters’ perspective.

The reaction has been mixed with those furious and feeling betrayed and those understanding of the situation from both sides. We’re not going to get into that but you can imagine which faction will be shouting loudest should 2024/25 commence and Conway is leading the line for the Robins, and a chance is missed or a heavy touch taken.

The longer and later Conway hangs around, the more it slightly complicates City’s own plans for the squad and the window itself. Do they recruit a direct replacement without definitely knowing he’s leaving? It would be prudent to do so, because ultimately if he doesn’t leave now it’ll be at some stage over the next 12 months, but do the finances permit such?

Manning has stated previously he wants players who are all-in and committed so unless there are injury issues, you’d imagine his minutes won’t be as regular as they were last season, especially with the prospect of a bright, shiny new No9 entering the building, whoever that might be.

Then again, should nothing be decided around Conway by early to mid-August, City have to be careful not to cut off their nose to spite their face here, because those three weeks before the window closes on August 30 could present a compelling case to all and sundry why it’s worth parting with however many millions now rather than wait until next year to enter what will be a pretty frenzied auction for his signature. Take the Max Bird argument as a reference point; had City not signed him in January, with his contract expiring in two weeks, there’s every chance they would have missed out on him this summer.

Three or four goals from Conway before the end of August could dot some i's and cross the t's on various scouting reports and force the agenda. But he needs to play to do so, which as we’ve mentioned isn’t a straightforward prospect, especially when you imagine the sort of vitriol he may receive and how that then potentially impacts performances.

And this could well drag towards that scenario simply because Conway’s expiring contract means clubs won’t want to pay premium money for him, but City will be requiring a healthy amount to help soften the blow of losing one of their prized assets.

Similar to the idea in the previous section of a club being besotted with him and just saying, “take my money”, allowing something to get done, there’s every chance that once the phone starts ringing more consistently, there’s going to be an awful amount of negotiating going on and, who knows, the initial price point City think they can get could end up being drastically higher or lower as talks develop, depending on a whole host of factors; the identity of the buying clubs and their comparative resources and how many are in for him.

If it’s one or two parties, similar to Wolves and Bournemouth with Alex Scott when the hope was for a few more at the table, it kind of limits just how much negotiating City can do, fully aware that in less than 12 months he’s walking out of the door for nothing.

All this moves things deeper into the window than first hoped. It’s not ideal but it’s certainly probable.

City take the financial hit

Already, reports in Scotland are indicating that Celtic and Rangers, while interested in the 21-year-old, are happy to wait until 2025 before trying to sign him because they know the mandatory FIFA compensation of £300,000 will do the trick ala Calvin Bassey and Joe Aribo, both represented by the same agency as Conway, as it goes.

That may be true, it may also be something of a play from the Old Firm to panic City into a cut-price sale, who knows? However, it can’t be denied that it’s an undeniable possibility and the fact the Scotland exit route exists, is of concern for the Robins.

Should we all be able to gaze into the future and see Conway leaving in June next year for Bournemouth (apologies, it’s an obvious joke), whether or not the Cherries’ Premier League status is intact doesn’t matter, it’ll likely enable City to earn towards a million in compensation, if not tip over that mark given how much senior football he’s played for the club.

Suddenly, while option one - a swift resolution - is the most appealing eventuality right now, the idea of another nine months of Conway plus a million pounds and a bit at the end of it, becomes a little more easy to swallow.

That is not taking into consideration the landscape that will create with the furious fan sentiment towards him but Conway is a striker, and if you’re in a position where you have to try and win supporters back over, then being a goalscorer is probably the best one; stick a few in past Cardiff City or lead the Robins up the table with 10 goals by Christmas, and there’ll be more than a few dissenters at least humming the Human League.

But, to repeat, with Celtic and Rangers lurking, City don’t really want to be playing the game of risk where Conway is allowed into free agency and the prospect of £1m (or whatever) becomes a third of that. Steve Lansdown, after all, is a man of finance and that’s not an appealing rate of return. Not one bit.

But we have to consider it a possibility, mainly because of a lot of the reasons we’ve touched on already; maybe the interest doesn’t manifest into anything beyond a few derisory bids, whether that be due to clubs not being that keen or then securing other targets; maybe City have a figure set they’re not willing to reduce and if that isn’t presented to them by means of an offer, then they’ll keep hold of him and roll with it later on down the line; that being because most clubs will look at the finances and think, ‘d’ya know what, let’s not pay £5m now when we can just try and get him for nothing in a year’; maybe, just maybe, he gets injured at some stage over the summer akin to 12 months ago, which really would be a doomsday scenario for all concerned.

Conway changes his mind

Alternatively, maybe just maybe this all turns out to be a bad dream, or at least an unpleasant and uncomfortable chapter for everyone, and Conway changes his mind and thinks that, yes, being a regular starter in the Championship for my boyhood club, surrounded by friends, a fanbase that loves (maybe past-tense right now, to be fair) me and a supportive staff, where I know my role, is best for me and my overall career development.

He is far from the finished article. As is perfectly normal at 21, and there are a number of improvements he needs to make to his game that will come, yes, from coaching and maybe operating in an environment higher up the food chain with “better” players, but also from playing consistent first-team football. Something he’s very much been given in BS3 and, had he signed his contract over the last however many weeks since it was presented to him, would continue throughout 2024/25.

The context for which he can call himself a City player is wildly different than it was at the end of last season; just from a supporters’ perspective the consensus has transformed from a hopeful he’ll sign to a hopeful he’ll go for decent money. And that’s probably being polite about it.

Of course, the concept of Conway changing his mind and signing extended terms will unquestionably be done later on in the window and is quite likely to be driven by what happens in between. It’ll be hard to refrain from any kind of cynicism if it occurs in the closing week of August when it’s become abundantly clear the interest out there is simply just that and nothing more.

But, hey, having Conway for at least another season where he’s committed to improving himself and the team can’t be a bad thing. A new contract also makes him a far more valuable asset than he is right now.

Everyone can put their anger to one side for the idea of 15-20 goals, and it also makes things considerably easier in the transfer market knowing that Manning only has to build on what he already has.

The reality is that it’s by far the least likely of all the scenarios because if City can’t sell him now - irrespective of how many clubs may or may not bid for him - should he maintain any kind of consistency, even if his output was to drop slightly next term - Conway at 22 on the open market would be a hugely enticing target for a number of clubs, just in the Championship alone.

For argument’s sake, let’s say he was a free agent right now, I’m not sure there wouldn’t be a team in the second tier who wouldn’t at least look to have a meeting with him; Burnley, Leeds United, Norwich City and, now flushed with parachute payments, Luton Town are likely to exceed any kind of wage offer City could present.

If not now, then certainly in a year’s time, Conway could find himself with a significantly larger contract and in a squad probably more likely to be pushing for promotion then the one he’s just left. And that’s before we’ve even brought the Premier League and Old Firm into the equation.

Quite simply, as we know based on the last few months and his unwillingness to sign a new deal at Ashton Gate, it’s hard to see how that situation could change in the short-term.

There is perhaps a utopia that does exist and maybe the stars could align. Conway stays, scores lots of goals to complement City’s dynamic new attack under Manning, with the Robins then very much in the play-off mix.

That is probably the most compelling sales pitch City could present to him to enable pen to meet paper. It’s just a shame it’s a hypothetical one and, right here, right now, isn’t rooted in enough reality to successfully alter his thought process.

SIGN UP: For our daily Robins newsletter, bringing you the latest from Ashton Gate