Final Tony Predictions: Musical Book – ‘Kimberly Akimbo’ and ‘Some Like It Hot’ Among Top Picks to Win

Gordon Cox and Clayton Davis
·3-min read

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Book of Musical

Some Like It Hot review Broadway musical
Christian Borle and J Harrison Ghee in “Some Like It Hot” on Broadway

Weekly Commentary: A few voters seem to balk at voting for David Lindsay-Abaire for a book that adapts “Kimberly Akimbo” from his own 20-year-old play, but even many of those who express that hesitation still lean toward giving him the award anyway. Matthew López and Amber Ruffin’s redux of “Some Like It Hot” also earns appreciation for its interweaving of contemporary ideas of gender and race into the plot of the classic film, and the unexpected ingenuity of “& Juliet” also has its adherents. Even so, Lindsay-Abaire looks like the one to beat here.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Could win: Matthew López and Amber Ruffin, “Some Like It Hot”
Should win: David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”
Should Have Been Nominated: Cameron Crowe, “Almost Famous”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: Matthew López and Amber Ruffin, “Some Like It Hot”
Could win: David Lindsay-Abaire, “Kimberly Akimbo”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Predicted Nominees Are:

  1. “Kimberly Akimbo” (Booth Theatre) — David Lindsay-Abaire

  2. “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre) — Matthew López and Amber Ruffin

  3. “Shucked” (Nederlander Theatre) — Robert Horn

  4. “& Juliet” (Stephen Sondheim Theatre) — David West Read

  5. “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre) — David Thompson and Sharon Washington

All Eligible Shows (Unranked)

Tony Awards Predictions Categories

BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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