Tories narrow gap to Labour in poll as Sunak says election result not ‘foregone conclusion'

A new poll shows the Tories have narrowed Labour’s lead in the election as Rishi Sunak said the outcome on July 4 is not a “foregone conclusion”.

The new survey from Savanta for the Telegraph on voter intention shows the Conservatives have closed their gap behind Labour to 15 points, the smallest lead for Sir Keir Starmer’s party by this pollster for a month.

While the polling firm says such a lead will still lead to a huge Labour majority, it would imply heavy losses for Mr Sunak’s party rather than “electoral oblivion”

Later a second poll, by Redfield & Wilton Strategies, put the gap at 19 points, down from 23.The Savanta survey came as Mr Sunak was due to say in a speech on Tuesday that the outcome of the election is not a “foregone conclusion” and the decision of a small number of voters could swing it away from a Labour “supermajority”.

Multiple opinion polls have suggested the Labour party is on course for a huge majority in Parliament following the election.

The Conservatives have dubbed this an unaccountable “supermajority”, in a bid to dissuade voters who would usually back them from switching to rival political parties.

Speaking in Oxfordshire, the Prime Minister will say: “The outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion. If just 130,000 people switch their vote and lend us their support, we can deny Starmer that supermajority.”

The poll from Savanta, conducted over the weekend, suggests the gap from the Tories to Labour could narrow as polling day arrives.

It shows Labour on 39 percent, up one percentage point, the Conservatives at 24 percent, up three points, Reform UK at 13 percent, down one point and the Liberal Democrats on 10 percent, down one point.

It places the Tories at their highest level in a poll by the firm since Mr Sunak was heavily criticised for leaving D-Day commemorations early.

During June, Reform UK rose to their high point of 16 percent in a Savanta poll and the Conservatives dropped to 19 percent. But the latest poll shows Nigel Farage’s party appears to now be slipping in national vote share.

According to seat modelling site Electoral Calculus, if these results were replicated on polling day, Labour would still be on course for a majority of over 200, with the Conservatives on sub-100 MPs.

In his speech the Prime Minister is expected to claim more Tory MPs would help to “prevent Labour from rewriting the rules so that they can stay in power for decades”, pointing to Labour’s proposals to extend the voting franchise to 16 and 17-year-olds as among the moves which could entrench the party’s voter base.

The Prime Minister will add: “A Labour government would be bad for our country, and an unchecked Labour government would be a disaster from which it would take decades to recover.

“Between now and Thursday, we have got to get the message out to people that we Conservatives will stand up for you and make sure your voice is heard, your values represented.”

Meanwhile Labour leader Sir Keir said he would be forced to make tough choices to deal with the “very difficult inheritance” he would receive if he is in power after Thursday’s vote.

“If we do get over the line and come in to serve as a Labour government, it’s going to be really difficult because there’s going to be a very difficult inheritance after 14 years of failure under this Government, and we’re going to have to do really tough things in order to move the country forward,” he said on Monday.

After a stump speech at Hitchin Town Football Club, the Labour leader was asked whether he was concerned he could be the least popular opposition leader ever to enter No 10.

He said: “In five years’ time, we will be able to look back and say: ‘You are truly better off, your public services are working properly and the economy is working for everyone.’

“I’ll be very, very happy to be judged on that record.”