Tories ‘stuck’ with Sunak and have no Boris to save them, warns Prof John Curtice

The Conservative Party is “stuck” with Rishi Sunak until the general election and there is no Boris Johnson-style figure waiting in the wings to save it, Britain’s foremost polling expert has said.

Prof Sir John Curtice said it was not feasible to replace the Prime Minister, despite speculation he could be ousted after next week’s local polls.

He added that the Tories were likely to suffer a general election defeat regardless of their leader.

In an interview with The Telegraph’s Politics Newsletter, the political professor said “dumping” Mr Sunak would make no difference to the party’s fortunes, despite it heavily trailing Labour in the opinion polls.

Sir John said: “Do you really think that you’re going to persuade the electorate to vote for you by saying, ‘We’re terribly sorry, we’ve dumped three prime ministers who in the end didn’t prove to be very good – but could you please vote for us again because we’ve now found you yet another fourth one?’

“It’s not going to work. The Conservatives are certainly, for good or ill, for all practical purposes, stuck with Mr Sunak, limited as his options are.”

Noting Tory fortunes had not recovered from the partygate scandal involving Mr Johnson or the ill-fated mini-Budget overseen by his successor Liz Truss, Sir John said the party had not done enough to convince voters on either the economy or the NHS.

Assessing the potential successors to Mr Sunak, he added: “The problem is there isn’t a Boris Johnson sitting in the ranks of the Conservative Party who has that remarkable charismatic campaigning ability to bring it together.

“Oh, by the way, the answer is not Boris Johnson because although he was undoubtedly highly effective before 2019, he is now damaged goods.”

He said Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, was “known for one thing, which is her ability to hang on to a sword for life or death for many, many hours without flinching”, but noted her politics remained a mystery.

Sir John said Kemi Badenoch, the Business Secretary, had “very little profile outside the ranks of the Conservative Party”, while a series of gaffes made by James Cleverly, the Home Secretary, meant “he’s not necessarily quite the safe bet you imagine”.

He also argued a lack of charisma among Britain’s political leaders could boost Nigel Farage’s fortunes if the honorary Reform president returned to front-line politics before the election.

“Certainly what is truly one of the striking features about British politics at the moment is the absence among any of our principal party leaders of a charismatic figure who could encapsulate what they’re about in simple language, [articulating] a vision for the country.

“They’re all very, very weak at this but Farage is excellent. Given the lack of rhetorical competition, if I were the Conservative Party, I would be delighted if he were to stay on at GB News, rather than to go back into politics.

“Rishi Sunak [is] unpopular, uncharismatic, can’t do the vision thing. Keir Starmer… Boring, uncharismatic, can’t do the vision thing. Ed Davey is a nice bloke but he’s made little impact, can’t do the vision thing. Humza Yousaf is a nice bloke but has all sorts of troubles in maintaining his political direction, and now his deal with the Greens has folded.”

Sir John suggested local Tory mayors Ben Houchen and Andy Street may “hang on” to their positions in next week’s Tees Valley and West Midlands contests.

“But for their personal popularity, we would be saying they were dead ducks… They might just do well enough to be able to hang on.”

He said Susan Hall had “no chance” of ousting Sadiq Khan, the London Mayor, adding that Mr Johnson “could be the last Conservative mayor of London for quite some considerable time”.

Asked about turnout at the next general election, he implied it could be as low as or lower than the 2001 poll, when 59 per cent of eligible voters cast a ballot, because of similarities between the contests.

“What was true about 2001 is that people were pretty clear it was all over bar the shouting, and there was not much difference between the parties,” Sir John said.

“Now, it could be that it’s all over bar the shouting, and there is much less difference between the parties than there was in 2019.”