The Tory big beasts set to lose seats at election after shock poll

Alexander Butler

19 June 2024 at 4:02 pm·7-min read

A number of top Tory ministers are set to lose their seats in the upcoming general election as the Conservative’s faltering campaign grinds on, according to a new shock poll.

In devastating news for prime minister Rishi Sunak, YouGov’s poll has predicted 14 Tory big beasts are set to lose their seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Reform UK and Plaid Cymru.

The Conservatives would drop to just 108 seats, losing 257 of the seats they won in 2019, according to YouGov’s most recent projection. Labour would win a huge majority of 425 seats, up by 223.

Follow live updates here

Among those set to be outsted are Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Mel Stride, Alex Chalk, Mark Harper, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.

Here, The Independent takes a closer look at the Tory candidates set to lose their seats.

Jeremy Hunt

Jeremy Hunt is a long-serving Tory grandee, having served in multiple senior roles across government, including Foreign Secretary, Health Secretary and his current post as Chancellor of the Exchequer.

He will be standing in a new constituency this year – Godalming and Ash – after his seat in South-West Surrey, which he has held since 2005, is set to be abolished in the recent boundary changes.

He has a 10,720 majority but is set to lose the seat to the Liberal Democrats under the new YouGov poll published on Wednesday 19 June.

Grant Shapps

Grant Shapps is the MP for Welwyn Hatfield, taking up his first government position as a housing minister under David Cameron’s leadership.

Since then, Mr Shapps has served in several senior roles across government, including as transport secretary under Boris Johnson, home secretary under Liz Truss, energy secretary under Rishi Sunak and now secretary of state for defence.

He has a 10,773 majority and is set to lose his seat to Labour in the general election on 4 July, the new poll found.

Grant Shapps is set to lose his Welwyn Hatfield seat to Labour, according to a new YouGov poll (PA Wire)

Gillian Keegan

Gillian Keegan entered parliament in 2017, and has served as Education Secretary since 2022, having held a number of junior ministerial posts before that.

She has a 19,622 majority in her seat of Chichester but is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, according to the shock poll.

Gillian Keegan is vulnerable to the Liberal Democrats, according to the new YouGov poll (Getty Images)

Penny Mordaunt

The leader of the house, Penny Mordaunt, has been a popular figure in the Conservative party over the last few years, having stood for the leadership twice in 2023.

Ms Mordaunt held several senior government positions under Theresa May’s leadership, including Defence Secretary and International Development Secretary.

Ms Mordaunt is now on track to lose her seat to Labour in the constituency of Portsmouth North, where she has served as the MP since 2010, according to the poll.

Mordaunt is on track to lose her seat to Labour in the constituency of Portsmouth North

Mark Harper

Mark Harper was elected in 2005 in the constituency of Forest of Dean. He has served as Transport Secretary since 2022 and previously worked as Chief Whip.

Under the new YouGov Poll, Mr Harper is vulnerable to Labour. He currently has a 15,869 majority in his Gloucestershire seat.

Transport Secretary Mark Harper is set to lose his Gloucestershire seat to Labour, according to a new poll (PA Wire)

Johnny Mercer

Johnny Mercer has served as MP for Plymouth Moor View since 2010 and has attended cabinet as Minister for Veteran Affairs since 2019.

He is set to lose his seat to Labour, with the Reform party predicted to nibble away at the Conservative majority, taking around 11 per cent of the total vote share.

Johnny Mercer is vulnerable to Labour in his Plymouth seat, according to the new poll (Getty)

Alex Chalk

Alex Chalk won the seat of Cheltenham from the Lib Dems back in 2015, and has been viewed as a rising star in the party over the past few years.

Mr Chalk has long been at risk due to his wafer thin majority of just under 1000 votes, which he is now set to lose to the Lib Dems at the next election, according to the new poll.

Alex Chalk is set to lose his seat of Cheltenham at the general election on 4 July (Getty Images)

Michelle Donelan

Michelle Donelan has been Member of Parliament for Chippenham in Wiltshire since 2015, where she has a 11,288 majority.

She was first appointed Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology on 7 February 2023. Under the new poll, she is predicted to lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Michelle Donelan, Secretary of State for Science, Innovation and Technology, is set to lose her seat to the Liberal Democrats (PA Wire)

Michael Tomlinson

Micheal Tomlinson has been a Member of Parliament for Mid Dorset and North Poole since the 2015 general election.

He was appointed Minister of State at the Home Office on 7 December 2023, and worked as the Illegal Migration Minister. He is also set to lose his seat to the Liberal Democrats.

Micheal Tomlinson’s Mid Dorest and North Poole seat is leaning towards the Lib Dems, a YouGov poll found (Getty Images)

David T C Davies

Mr Davies has served as Secretary of State for Wales since 2022, having previously served in junior ministerial roles and as the Chair for the Welsh Affairs Select Committee.

He became the MP for Monmouth back in 2005, but is set to stand in the new seat of Monmouthshire, as his previous seat will be abolished under the boundary changes. However, Mr Davies is set to lose his seat to Labour.

David TC Davies looks as if he will lose his Monmouth seat to Labour in the 4 July election (PA Archive)

Steve Baker

Steve Baker was appointed Minister of State at the Northern Ireland Office on 7 September 2022. He was elected as Conservative MP for Wycombe in 2010.

He was previously Parliamentary Under Secretary of State at the Department for Exiting the European Union from June 2017 to 9 July 2018.

Under the new poll, Mr Baker is set to lose his seat, which he is campaigning for while on holiday on Greece, to Labour.

Steve Baker, who said he would be campaigning for his seat while on holiday on Greece, is set to lose to Labour (Getty)

Mel Stride

Mel Stride was appointed Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on 25 October 2022. He was elected the Conservative MP for Central Devon in 2010.

He was previously Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons from 23 May 2019 to 24 July 2019, and Financial Secretary to the Treasury and Paymaster General from June 2017 to May 2019.

According to YouGov’s shock poll, he will lose his seat to Labour in the 4 July general election.

Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride could lose his seat to Labour in the upcoming general election (PA Wire)

Simon Hart

The Government’s chief whip Simon Hart could lose his seat to Plaid Cymru. YouGov’s previous poll predicted he would lose it to Labour.

Mr Hart has served in ministerial roles under both Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, having assumed office in 2010.

The Government’s chief whip Simon Hart could lose his seat to Plaid Cymru, YouGov’s shock poll found (AFP via Getty Images)

Richard Holden

Richard Holden was appointed Minister without Portfolio in the Cabinet Office on 13 November 2023. He was elected as the MP for North West Durham in 2019 and serves as the Tory chairman.

The YouGov poll has predicted a toss-up between Reform and Labour in Basildon and Billericay, which means he could lose the contest for parliament.

The Telegraph
When is the next election TV debate? How to watch the BBC programme live
Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer will go head-to-head once again in a BBC debate on June 26 – a week before the country heads to the polls.
The Independent
Is Jeremy Hunt heading for his Portillo moment? On campaign trail as chancellor fights to keep Surrey blue
The chancellor is plotting a narrow course to victory in the ‘true-blue’ seat but, on a sunny Tuesday afternoon, Archie Mitchell struggled to see how he can hold on
HuffPost
Newsmax Slaps Very Awkward Note On Screen During Donald Trump Interview
Critics on social media suggested the chyron meant one thing.
The Telegraph
The Tories have abandoned the one thing that made them electable
The outcome of the general election is now considered such a foregone conclusion that the post-mortem examination is being conducted while the corpse is still twitching. Many pundits and politicians seem to think that the Government’s imminent demise can be explained by its failure to listen to one faction or another.
The Telegraph
Armageddon is upon us, and Britain will never be the same again
Make the most of living in Conservative Britain: Armageddon is upon us. In a little over a week, the Tory government – that last, oh-so-imperfect, infuriatingly porous roadblock to Left-wing hegemony – will have been obliterated. The removal vans, symbols of regime change, will be on their way. Parliament, the last major institution in Britain still nominally controlled by the centre-Right, will have fallen, in a wipeout without precedent.
The Hill
Trump, progressives suffer a rough night: 5 takeaways from Tuesday’s primaries
Tuesday’s contests in Colorado, New York, South Carolina and Utah saw the first incumbent House Democrat to lose in a primary this cycle, along with several losses for Trump-endorsed candidates. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party suffered a major blow when Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) lost to Westchester County Executive George Latimer, a moderate,…
HuffPost
George Conway Tells Trump What The Rest Of The World Really Thinks About Him
He also revealed what will happen if Joe Biden provokes Trump at this week's debate.
HuffPost UK
'Shouldn't Be Allowed To Make Stuff Up': James Cleverly Left Stuttering Over His Migration Claims
"It's invented, isn't it, James?" Labour's Yvette Cooper said.
The Independent
‘This party should fall’: MAGA candidate who didn’t win Boebert’s old seat calls Republican Party ‘irredeemable’
Volunteers and supporters of grassroots Colorado Republican Ron Hanks, who’d hoped to fill the congressional seat vacated by fellow MAGA diehard Lauren Boebert, gathered Tuesday night at a Grand Junction brewery for a watch party. Hanks lamented the results — and the state of the Republican Party. Sheila Flynn reports from the third congressional district
The Telegraph
Macron may soon resign
With Britain swept up in its own election, it easy to miss the equally momentous one taking place across the Channel.
The Independent
Trump goes off on Biden in early morning screed ahead of debate: ‘Man is a walking LYING MACHINE’
Trump lied 30,573 times with an average of 21 false claims a day, while in office, according to one analysis
Reuters
US, Russia defense chiefs speak as tensions rise over Crimea attack
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. and Russian defense chiefs spoke by telephone on Tuesday in rare communication between the two powers and with tensions rising after Moscow blamed Washington for a deadly Ukraine attack over the weekend on the Russian-annexed Crimea. The two sides gave widely divergent accounts of the conversation - the first one between U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Russia's new Defense Minister Andrei Belousov, who replaced Sergei Shoigu in May.
Associated Press
Iran's supreme leader warns sole reformist in presidential race, while calling for 'maximum' turnout
Iran's supreme leader issued a thinly veiled warning Tuesday to the sole reformist candidate in the country's upcoming presidential election, saying anyone who believes “all ways to progress” come from the United States shouldn't be supported. While often speaking in parables like many Iranian politicians, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appeared to directly undercut the candidacy of 69-year-old heart surgeon Masoud Pezeshkian, who has aligned himself with officials from the administration of former President Hassan Rouhani. Rouhani helped reach Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, an accord Pezeshkian has fully embraced in contrast with his five hard-line opponents, who want an agreement fully on Iran's terms.
HuffPost
House Republicans Launch Effort To Keep Bannon Out Of Jail
Republicans say Bannon’s subpoena had no legitimacy while their own subpoenas must be respected.
The Telegraph
Senior Tory ‘bet £8,000 he would lose his seat at election’
A senior Conservative has been accused of placing an £8,000 bet that he would lose his seat at the general election, it has been reported.
CNN
Israel’s top court rules ultra-Orthodox Jews must be drafted into military, in blow to Netanyahu
Israel’s Supreme Court on Tuesday ordered the government to draft ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military, delivering a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that has the potential to unravel his ruling coalition.
HuffPost
Social Media Predicts Outcome Of Trump-Biden Debate — And It's Hilarious
Pundits and politicians aren’t the only ones offering their hot takes on how Thursday’s CNN event will go.
Business Insider
North Korean troops will become 'cannon fodder' if they aid Russia in Ukraine, Pentagon says
A Pentagon spokesperson said that any military personnel North Korea sent to Ukraine to aid Russian forces would just be "cannon fodder."
Daily Echo
MP candidate pens letter on 'leaky sink' ahead of election
A Southampton MP candidate has written a letter taking aim at a Spanish teacher and said: "I am bad at languages but have 30 years experience in finance and law."
The Telegraph
‘Their manifesto is like a wishlist’: How Reform seduced Gen Z
Nathan Hobbs has been arguing with his sister about politics lately. She is 22, has a progressive outlook and, like most young voters, is likely to vote either Labour or Liberal Democrat at the General Election. Nathan, a 19-year-old student, disagrees with her and doesn’t fit the mould of much of his peer group either. He is planning to vote Reform UK on July 4. “There’s a real split [between us],” he says of the siblings’ divergence in political opinion. “She dislikes Nigel Farage.”