Trump impeachment: What would happen to the president and America if he was ousted?

President Donald Trump has undoubtedly been one of the most controversial presidents in American history. Since he took over the Oval Office, Mr Trump has been accused of colluding with Russia to win the 2016 presidential election, allegedly suggested his former attorney to commit campaign finance violations, and defended the use of tear gas on migrant children at the US-Mexico border.

For his critics, these incidents all beg the question of when, if ever, will Mr Trump get impeached?

On Thursday, the Atlantic published the cover story of the March issue calling for Mr Trump’s impeachment. Yoni Appelbaum, the senior editor of the magazine, wrote the piece, arguing that the president has “repeatedly trampled” on the US Constitution with his policies, handling of investigations involving his administration and his attack on political rivals and the press.

“These actions are, in sum, an attack on the very foundations of America’s constitutional democracy,” Mr Appelbaum wrote.

“With a newly seated Democratic majority, the House of Representatives can no longer dodge its constitutional duty,” he added. “It must immediately open a formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump, and bring the debate out of the court of public opinion and into Congress, where it belongs.”

With the partial government shutdown reaching its 25th day mark, the longest federal closure in American history resulting in over 800,000 federal employees working without pay, Mr Trump’s approval rating is on the decline.

Some Democrats have also already called for Mr Trump’s impeachment. Texas Representative Al Green happens to be one of the Democrats making those calls.

“I think [Trump] has to realise that the countdown to impeachment has already started,” Mr Green said. “He, at some point, will have to choose if he will face impeachment or if he will resign. It will be his choice. The congress will have no choice but to act.”

But to some senior Democrats, impeaching the president would be political suicide. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has repeatedly called for fellow colleagues to back off on the impeachment proceedings, saying “We shouldn’t impeach the president for political reasons and we shouldn’t not impeach the president for political reasons.”

The San Francisco liberal also cited former President Bill Clinton’s impeachment 20 years ago and how it backfired on Republicans in the following 1998 midterm elections. Ms Pelosi said Mr Clinton’s impeachment was “so bad, it was so wrong, and [the Republicans] had no right to do it, and it disrupted the public confidence in what we do”.

She was right. On midterm election day, the Democrats crushed the GOP and gained five seats in the House despite polling finding 70 per cent of American voters believe Mr Clinton was guilty of perjury—a crime.

But, let’s say for instance, that Mr Trump does get impeached. The crucial question to ask then is: what would the president and the US look like if Mr Trump were to be impeached?

Could Mr Trump resign before he is officially impeached?

Yes, it is a possibility. Former President Richard Nixon took that route when he resigned from the Oval Office in August 1974. Historians believe that if he would have not resigned, he would have been impeached and removed from the office.

Some legal experts believe Mr Trump could take a rule out of Mr Nixon’s playbook. California Congresswoman Jackie Speier—a Democrat sitting on the House permanent select committee on intelligence—reportedly said that based on the growing evidence on the Trump campaign’s ties with Russia, she believes he might resign before impeachment.

“I have always thought that he was never going to fulfil his full term,” Ms Speier said. “I am more convinced that he will leave before any impeachment would take place.”

What needs to be done to get Republicans to join in on impeachment proceedings against Mr Trump?

There are two possibilities for this to happen. The first depends on attitudes from Republican voters. If Republican voters end up turning on Mr Trump, it is likely for the GOP—who are eager to keep their seats in Congress—will follow suit. The other possibility, according to some political theorists, is that Republicans view Mr Trump’s impeachment as an opportunity to get the president they wanted all along: Vice President Mike Pence.

If Trump gets impeached, who will replace him?

Vice president Mike Pence. But for some progressives, Mr Pence—widely favoured by Republicans— is seen as an conservative ideologue with impenetrable views on abortion and LGBTQ rights. Thus making a possible Pence administration seem far more volatile and nefarious than the current administration.

What would a Pence administration look like?

There are stark differences in the way Mr Trump and Mr Pence handle political business. Firstly, Mr Pence takes more of a traditionalist approach in communicating with the American people. Unlike Mr Trump, Americans probably won’t see Mr Pence tweeting out threats against world leaders or insults towards the press in the middle of the night.

When it comes to reproductive rights and women’s healthcare, Mr Pence is likely to vow overturning landmark Roe v. Wade and might champion the GOP agenda to defund Planned Parenthood. During his tenure as an Indiana congressional representative, Mr Pence made a name for himself through his stalwart commitment to reducing government spending. In 2003, Mr Pence fought “tooth and nail and led GOP caucus members” to prevent a prescription drug entitlement from being added to Medicare—proving that the vice president is willing to take on his own political party for limited government.

Essentially, Mr Pence is married to the concepts of limited government, deregulations, shrinking government and returning the powers to the states. One thing for certain is that this could mean bad news for Medicare, women’s reproductive rights, civil rights, public education and climate change.

Could Mr Trump face jail time?

The Justice Department have taken the position that a sitting president cannot be indicted or prosecuted. But that could all change if Mr Trump is impeached from office.

Some top Democrats think so. California Congressman Adam Schiff, the incoming Democratic chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, said on Sunday that Mr Trump “may be the first president in quite some time to face the real prospect of jail time”, saying it could be the case the Justice Departments indict Mr Trump once he leaves office.

If new court filings in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation can prove that Mr Trump advised Cohen, his former attorney, to pay illegal hush money to women who allegedly had sexual relations with the president, he would could be found guilty of campaign finance violations.

Prosecutors argued that Cohen “acted in coordination with and at the direction of” Trump before the election to silence two women—Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal—about their alleged affairs with the former reality tv star. Mr Schiff believes prosecutors have also made the “powerful case” for Cohen, who plead guilty to campaign finance violations in August, to serve a prison sentence that could equally apply to Mr Trump. Prosecutors are recommending Cohen serve a 42-month sentence for campaign finance law violations, and charges for tax and bank fraud.