UKIP Could Win Over 100 Seats, Say Experts

Support for UKIP has surged to 25% in the polls and the party could win a remarkable 128 MPs in a general election, experts have claimed.

A Survation poll for the Mail on Sunday found a repeat of the Clacton by-election result next May would see the Conservatives lose 100 seats and Ed Miliband at No 10.

Labour and the Tories are both on 31% while the Liberal Democrats are on 8%, according to the research for the newspaper.

Experts suggest that the ratings would give Labour 253 MPs, Conservatives 187, UKIP 128, Lib Dems 11, and other parties, such as the SNP, 71.

However, private polling analysis seen by The Sunday Times puts UKIP on course to win a maximum of 25 MPs, which is still far higher than earlier predictions.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, told the Mail on Sunday: "The 25% level represents a 22-point increase on the 3% the party won in 2010.

"If that increase were to occur evenly in every constituency, they could still fail to pick up a single seat.

"But today's poll suggests UKIP's support has increased much more in the south of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK - by a staggering 34 points.

"If that level was recorded throughout the South, UKIP could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points."

Meanwhile, an Opinium poll for The Observer has Labour on 35%, seven points ahead of the Conservatives on 28%, UKIP on 17% and the Liberal Democrats up two on 9%.

The Tories and Labour were left reeling after UKIP dealt both sides major blows in the two by-elections on Thursday.

Tory defector Douglas Carswell became the first elected MP for the eurosceptics after taking Clacton with a majority of 12,404, and the party was just 617 votes shy of victory in Heywood and Middleton.

UKIP leader Nigel Farage has ruled out any form of election pact with the Conservatives despite fresh calls among Tory backbenchers for a deal to be struck.

He said he was "targeting everybody" in the forthcoming by-election in Rochester and Strood, sparked by sitting Tory MP Mark Reckless also defecting to his party.

Mr Farage told Sky News: "If I was to call a silence and ask our activists whether they wanted a pre-election pact with the Conservatives I think I would need to be bundled into that room for my own safety."

He added: "I don't trust David Cameron. I don't believe a word (he) says and for that reason it would be fruitless to even enter into any negotiation."

:: There'll be more on the rise of UKIP and Ed Miliband's leadership when Dermot Murnaghan talks to former prime minister Gordon Brown from 10am on Sky News.