Ukraine’s new F-16 fighter jets will be destroyed as soon as they arrive

In a brutal and terrifying three days, Russia has wreaked havoc on the tiny, battered Ukrainian air force – lofting drones to surveil the air force’s front-line airfields and then firing ballistic missiles to destroy hard-to-replace warplanes.

As the missile campaign continues and the toll mounts – four or five aircraft were destroyed in 72 hours – it’s increasingly clear just one thing can save what’s left of Ukrainian air power. More Western-made air defenses.

But they’d better come fast.

The current wave of attacks began on July 1, when a Russian drone spotted six Ukrainian air force Sukhoi Su-27 fighters parked in the open in broad daylight on the tarmac at Mirgorod air base, 100 miles from Ukraine’s northern border with Russia.

A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck, destroying two of the supersonic fighters.

The next day, it happened again. A Russian drone flew circles over the Ukrainian air base in Poltava, just east of Mirgorod. After hours of surveillance, another Iskander missile struck – damaging, if not destroying, a Ukrainian army Mil Mi-24 gunship helicopter.

The attacks continued on July 3. This time the Russians targeted Dolgintsevo air base near Kryvyi Rih, 45 miles from the front line in southern Ukraine. A drone scanned the base, and as many as three Iskanders rained down, destroying what appeared to be a Ukrainian air force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 fighter.

Each of the attacks was preventable. If the Ukrainians had promptly shot down the drones, the Russians wouldn’t have known where to aim their Iskanders. But they didn’t shoot down the drones. There’s no evidence they even tried.

It’s apparent why. Normally, the Ukrainian air force would protect its most bases with layers of surface-to-air missiles. But the Ukrainians are struggling to simultaneously protect cities, front-line brigades and vulnerable bases such as the Mirgorod, Poltava and Dolgintsevo airfields.

Between them, the Ukrainian army and air force began Russia’s wider war on Ukraine with around 400 surface-to-air missile systems. Twenty-eight months later, the Ukrainians have lost around 140 of those systems and acquired – mostly from their foreign allies – around a hundred as replacements.

In theory, the Ukrainians still have 90 percent of their pre-war air-defense force. But it’s scattered more widely than it was before February 2022. Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities has compelled the air force to concentrate its best air defenses around the biggest population centers. That has left many military installations less protected.

That means more Russian drones flying overhead with impunity, and more Russian missiles streaking in. The Ukrainian air force may have fewer than 100 fighter and attack planes left, while the army might be down to 50 or so Mi-24 gunships. The service is getting, from its European allies, 85 Lockheed Martin F-16 fighters and perhaps a dozen Dassault Mirage 2000 fighters. But these planes will be just as vulnerable at their bases.

Some relief is coming. Before last month, Ukraine had just three batteries of its best American-made Patriot long-range surface-to-air missiles. Germany, The Netherlands and the United States have since pledged three additional batteries plus some spare launchers.

And a $2.3-billion aid package that the United States announced on July 3 includes big consignments of missiles for the Patriot batteries as well as for separate medium-range air defenses.

But these additional Patriot batteries aren’t nearly enough. One of them could protect Mirgorod and Poltava while a second covers Dolgintsevo. But what about the other 20 or so big Ukrainian air bases? And what of the tens of major cities that still lack significant protection from air attack?

The scale of Ukraine’s air-defense needs is enormous – and growing as Russia refines its surveillance and bombardment methods and lengthens the list of Ukrainian bases that are at risk. If Ukraine’s allies can’t send many more air defenses, and soon, Russian attacks could whittle nearly to nothing what remains of Ukraine’s air power.