Ukraine-Russia news - live: Putin’s troops ‘unlikely to make notable gains in coming months’

Vladimir Putin’s ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months, the UK defence ministry has said in its latest intelligence update.

The ministry pointed to Russian presidential spokesperson Dimitry Peskov’s rearticulation of Moscow’s main goals of the ‘special military operation’.

“He said that one of Russia’s main objectives was the ‘protection’ of residents of the Donbas and south-eastern Ukraine but claimed there was still much work to be done regarding ‘liberation’ of those territories,” the ministry noted.

The remarks suggest that “Russia’s current minimum political objectives of the war remain unchanged.”

“Russia is likely still aiming to extend control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. Russian military planners likely still aim to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk oblast,” the MoD noted.

It added: “However, Russia’s strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas.”

Key Points

• Many killed in strike on Putin’s private Wagner HQ in eastern Ukraine

• Russian troops unlikely to make significant advances in next several months - MoD

• Ukraine’s eastern front line battered in cross-border shelling

• British royals told to keep away from Russian embassy, says Moscow’s envoy

20:17 , Natalie Crockett

We’re pausing our live coverage for the evening. We’ll bring you the latest updates at www.independent.co.uk

UK ‘open minded’ over sending longer-range weapons to Ukraine

19:45 , Emily Atkinson

Defence secretary Ben Wallace has said he would be “open minded” about supplying Ukraine with longer-range weapons systems if Russia carried on targeting civilian areas.

Speaking to parliament, Mr Wallace was asked by former PM Boris Johnson, a vocal supporter of Ukraine, about the possible supply of longer-range missile systems to Kyiv to destroy or damage drone launch sites.

“I constantly review the weapons systems we could provide,” Mr Wallace told the Commons.

“We too have in our armour potential weapons systems that are longer and should the Russians continue to target civilian areas and try and break those Geneva Conventions, then I will be open minded to see what we do next,” he said, referring to agreed basic humanitarian principles during war.

‘Hundreds of thousands more refugees expected from Ukraine'

18:45 , Emily Atkinson

The head of the Norwegian Refugee Council said on Monday he anticipates another wave of hundreds of thousands of refugees from Ukraine in Europe over the winter, because of “unliveable” conditions.

“Nobody knows how many but there will be hundreds of thousands more as the horrific and unlawful bombing of civilian infrastructure makes life unliveable in too many places,” Jan Egeland told Reuters by phone after returning from a trip to Ukraine earlier this month.

“So I fear that the crisis in Europe will deepen and that will overshadow equally crises in other places of the world,” he said.

Russian jet 'escorted Norwegian spotter plane over Barents Sea’

17:45 , Emily Atkinson

A Russian MiG-31 fighter jet escorted a Norwegian P-3 Orion military surveillance plane flying on Monday over the Barents Sea, which both countries adjoin, Russian news agencies reported, citing Russia‘s defence ministry.

Major fire damages second Russian shopping centre in four days

16:45 , Emily Atkinson

A fire the size of a football pitch has caused untold damage to a shopping centre near Moscow - just four days after a major blaze damaged a second in the region.

Images posted on Telegram by Russia‘s emergencies ministry showed that the fire at a construction supplies centre in Balashikha had caused part of the roof to collapse, with smoke billowing into the air.

The fire in the satellite town of 500,000 people on the outskirts of the Russian capital grew to 9,000 sq m (100,000 sq feet) before eventually being brough under control, the ministry said in a statement.

Major fire damages second Russian shopping centre in four days

Watch: Spanish police seize marijuana disguised as Ukraine aid

15:43 , Emily Atkinson

EU agrees to top up fund used for Ukraine arms purchases

15:10 , Emily Atkinson

European Union foreign ministers agreed on Monday to replenish a fund that has been used to pay for military support for Ukraine with another 2 billion euros ($2.11 billion).

There is a possibility of a further boost at a later stage, with the total increase until 2027 amounting to up to 5.5 billion euros, said the European Council which is grouping the bloc’s member states.

“Today’s decision will ensure that we have the funding to continue delivering concrete military support to our partners’ armed forces,” EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said in a statement.

Nato ‘will not treat Russia like Moscow treats its neighbours’

14:44 , Emily Atkinson

Nato countries can guarantee to Russia that they will not treat it in the same way Moscow is treating Ukraine, Poland’s president said in response to a question about French president Emmanuel Macron’s idea of security guarantees for Russia.

“What we, as honest people, politicians, Nato members, are able to guarantee to Russia is that no one is going to do to Russia what she is doing to her neighbours,” Andrzej Duda told a news conference in Berlin on Monday.

Poland and Germany ‘should ask EU for help with Ukrainian refugees'

14:17 , Emily Atkinson

Poland and Germany should ask the European Union for more help in dealing with an expected increase in Ukrainian refugees during the winter, the Polish president said on Monday.

“I believe that we should turn to the European Community so that there is financial support for our countries, which bear a particular burden in connection with taking in refugees from Ukraine,” Andrzej Duda said during a press conference in Berlin.

Two ‘killed in massive Russian shelling of Ukraine’s Kherson'

13:55 , Emily Atkinson

At least two people were killed and five wounded in the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson on Monday after what the regional governor said was “massive shelling” by Russian forces.

Ukrainian troops liberated the city from Russian occupation on Nov. 11. Ukrainian officials say Russian forces have been firing on it since then from the opposite side of the Dnipro River.

Governor Yaroslav Yanushevych wrote on the Telegram messaging app that the casualties had occurred in a single neighbourhood but that rescue workers were also combing a different area for possible victims.

Champagne-sipping Putin says ‘they started it’ to justify Russian strikes on Ukraine energy

13:35 , Emily Atkinson

Vladimir Putin has attempted to justify attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure by claiming Kyiv “started it” when the Crimea bridge was bombed.

Read our report in full here:

Champagne-sipping Putin says Ukraine ‘started it’ to justify energy strikes

Brigitte Macron greets Olena Zelenska in Paris

13:15 , Emily Atkinson

Brigitte Macron, wife of French President Emmanuel Macron, accompanies Ukraine's first lady Olena Zelenska as she leaves after a meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France.

EU considers new fund for energy investments to quit Russian gas

12:55 , Emily Atkinson

The EU needs to review its budget and consider launching a new fund for the major additional energy investments needed to wean countries off Russian gas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said.

“The question is whether it [the EU budget] is still fit for purpose, and a fresh look through a midterm review of the budget would open the door to create a sovereignity fund,” Ms von der Leyen said.

Ms von der Leyen declined to specify if this new fund would require the EU to take out further joint debt, but said the bloc’s existing funds would need to be “augmented by other sources”.

EU could face gas shortage next year, IEA says

12:35 , Emily Atkinson

The European Union has secured enough gas for this winter but could face a gas shortage next year if Russia further cuts supplies, the European Commission and the International Energy Agency says.

“Despite the action that we have taken, we might still face a gap of up to 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas next year,” European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen told a press conference, citing data from the International Energy Agency due to be published on Monday.

UN aid chief to visit Kherson on Ukraine trip amid power outages

12:15 , Emily Atkinson

UN aid chief Martin Griffiths has arrived in Ukraine on a four-day trip as officials race to repair energy facilities hit by Russian air strikes that have caused winter power outages.

The under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs and emergency relief coordinator will visit the southern city of Mykolaiv as well as the frontline city of Kherson, which was liberated last month, the United Nations said.

“Griffiths will see the impact of the humanitarian response and new challenges that have arisen as infrastructure damage mounts amid freezing winter temperatures,” it said.

In Kherson, which was recaptured from Russian forces on Nov. 11 after about nine months of Russian occupation, Griffiths will see how warm shelters are being set up for residents in case they are left without heating, power or water, it said.

It said in a statement that nearly 18 million people, around 40% of Ukraine’s population, need humanitarian aid.

Iraq hopes only economic factors will influence oil prices, says minister

11:55 , Emily Atkinson

Iraq hopes that economic factors remain the only influence of oil prices, and it is keen to avoid a crisis in the global oil market, Oil minister Hayan Abdel-Ghani says.

“We hope there is no more politicization of oil,” Abdel-Ghani told Reuters, responding to a question on the impact of a Western price cap on Russian oil and possible cuts in oil production by Moscow in retaliation.

Ukraine 'could provide workers for Czech arms industry’

11:35 , Emily Atkinson

Highly-trained Ukrainian workers could fill thousands of job vacancies in the Czech arms industry to help meet demand triggered by the war in Ukraine, a Czech defence official said on Monday.

The Czech Republic has been one of the top weapons providers to Kyiv among NATO allies since Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February. Deliveries, though, have badly depleted inventories and officials have warned it could take years to restock.

Some Czech arms producers have already signalled that they need to boost their workforce.

“(There) will be thousands of jobs,” deputy defence minister Tomas Kopecny was quoted as saying by Czech Radio, suggesting that workers could come from Ukraine, whose own arms industry has been targeted by Russian attacks.

Cleverly: We will respond when Iran’s actions are unacceptable

11:15 , Emily Atkinson

Foreign secretary James Cleverly has said Britain would continue to respond with sanctions against Iran when its actions are unacceptable in an effort to steer the Islamic Republic in a better direction.

“Our priority is to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but in parallel to that we will continue to act, to respond when Iran’s actions are unacceptable,” Cleverly said in answer to a question following a speech in London, giving the example of the supply of drones to Russia for use in Ukraine.

“We’ve sanctioned those involved with that, we’ve sanctioned those involved with the brutal suppression of protesters in Iran and we will continue to try and steer Iran into a better direction.”

In pictures: ‘Poland Helps’ convoy arrives in reclaimed Kherson region

10:50 , Emily Atkinson

Pictures capture people from help to unload trucks with goods in the village of Chornobaivka, Kherson, Ukraine.

Over 100 volunteers from Poland and Ukraine took part in a humanitarian convoy organised by “A Common Cause” and "Poland Helps” which traveled over 1,100 km, delivering medicines, hospital equipment, and items that will help some the inhabitants of Kherson and surrounding villages survive the winter.

G7 leaders to hold video conference on Monday - Berlin

10:30 , Emily Atkinson

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) countries are to hold a video conference on Monday, with chancellor Olaf Scholz scheduled to give a news conference afterwards, the German chancellery said.

Mr Scholz’s news conference is scheduled for 1630 GMT, according to the statement.

Finland braces for rolling power cuts this winter

10:10 , Emily Atkinson

Finland is preparing for the possibility of power cuts during cold snaps this winter, having stopped electricity imports from Russia over the Ukraine invasion and facing persistent technical problems at its new domestic nuclear power plant.

On Friday, power company Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) announced another delay to the startup of production from its Olkiluoto 3 reactor, with a capacity equal to about 14 per cent of total Finnish electricity consumption.

“The risk of running into a power shortage on a cold winter’s day has increased because the commissioning of Olkiluoto 3 is delayed,” national grid operator Fingrid said in a statement, referring to the nuclear plant.

He was tortured by Russia – now he’s getting his revenge

09:50 , Emily Atkinson

The pain inflicted by his torturers was so severe that Volodymyr Zhemchugov tried to bite through the drip keeping him alive in order to blow bubbles of air into his veins and kill himself.

The Soviet-era soldier turned Ukrainian partisan was being held in a prison hospital by Russian-backed proxies. It was 2015 in the eastern city of Luhansk.

Vladimir Putin had recently illegally annexed the Crimean peninsula, war was raging between the Ukrainian military and Russian-backed separatists in Donbas. And in the middle of this, 52-year-old Zhemchugov had been captured after accidentally crawling over a mine while trying to sabotage a power line to a Russian-backed camp. Both his hands had been blown off and he had been blinded.

Read the full story here:

He was tortured by Russia – now he’s getting his revenge

Watch: Heavy smoke billows from Russia’s Kursk Airfield after drone attack

09:30 , Emily Atkinson

EU to review Iran sanctions over protest crackdown and Russia drone supplies

09:10 , Emily Atkinson

EU foreign ministers are due to review new sanctions on Iranian people and organisations over human rights abuses in Tehran’s crackdown on protesters and the supply of drones to Russia.

“We are going to approve a very tough package of sanctions”, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said ahead of the meeting. The bloc “will take any action we can to support young women and peaceful demonstrators.”

They will discuss a ninth package of Russia sanctions that is set to place almost 200 more individuals and entities on the EU sanctions list, but Borrell stressed there was still no agreement on this at this stage.

Ministers will also aim to top up by 2 billion euros a fund member states have used to finance arms purchases for Kyiv, but which has been largely depleted over almost 10 months of the war in Ukraine.

In pictures: Volunteers set Kyiv clean-up operation in full swing

08:50 , Emily Atkinson

After almost 10 months of war and recent devastating strikes on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure , volunteers are taking part in repairing and cleaning of heavily ruined houses and buildings in Kyiv.

Zaporizhzhia governor says 232 of region’s citizens in Russian captivity

08:30 , Emily Atkinson

At least 232 Ukrainian citizens from the Zaporizhzhia region are in Russian captivity, according to the regional governor.

Governor Oleksandr Starukh said that 573 of Zaporizhzhia’s residents have been in Russian captivity over the last nine months, and 232 are still hostages.

Mr Starukh also noted that international organisations are often “helpless” when it comes to human rights violations.

No agreement on more Russia sanctions yet, says EU foreign policy chief

08:15 , Emily Atkinson

European Union member states have not yet agreed on a ninth package of Russia sanctions, the bloc’s foreign policy chief has said.

Speaking ahead of an EU foreign ministers’ meeting, Josep Borrell told reporters he hoped for agreement later on Monday or on Tuesday, referring to additional Russia sanctions that would place almost 200 more individuals and entities on the EU sanctions list.

Ukraine ‘repels 11 Russian attacks near eastern settlements’

08:00 , Emily Atkinson

Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near 11 settlements in the east of the country on Sunday, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

It claims Kyiv’s air forces also conducted 14 strikes on areas of Russian concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment

Positions of Russia’s anti-aircraft missile systems were also targeted, it says.

Ukraine’s troops hit nine Russian control points, 17 areas of personnel concentration, an artillery concentration area, and two ammunition depots in total, the General Staff reported on Sunday.

Russia says US not ‘constructive’ yet in talks

07:45 , Emily Atkinson

Russia sees Istanbul as a “comfortable place” to conduct diplomacy with the United States but does not yet believe Washington has adopted a constructive approach in talks, the RIA Novosti news agency cited Russia‘s deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin as saying.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has emerged as a key broker between Russia, Ukraine and the United States since Russia invaded Ukraine.

Several rounds of diplomacy, including failed early peace talks, the Black Sea grain initiative, prisoner exchange negotiations and a face-to-face meeting between Russian Foreign Intelligence Service chief Sergei Naryshkin and CIA Director William Burns have taken place in Istanbul or the Turkish capital Ankara.

Russia 'wants Black Sea grain deal to ensure supplies to poorest countries’

07:30 , Emily Atkinson

Russia wants to adjust the Black Sea grain initiative to ensure more food supplies go to the world’s poorest countries in Africa and Asia, the TASS news agency quoted deputy foreign minister Sergei Vershinin as saying.

British royals told to keep away from Russian embassy, says Moscow’s envoy

07:13 , Arpan Rai

The British royal family has been asked to not have any contacts with the Russian embassy in London, Russia’s ambassador to London said today.

On being asked if there had been any contacts with King Charles III, Russian ambassador Andrei Kelin said: “No, and I know that members of the royal family are advised not to maintain or enter into contact with the Russian embassy.”

Buckingham Palace has not responded immediately.

The top Russian diplomat called most politicians in the West “one-day butterflies” who did little serious thinking about the future and were obsessed with scoring futile political points.

“This deprives them of understanding what will happen in a month and a year from now with Ukraine. After all, if things go on like this, Ukraine will become a failed state, a black hole that will have to be patched up,” he said, reported Russian newspaper Izvestia.

Mr Kelin added that the Russian businessmen, including the so called oligarchs who earned fabulous fortunes after the fall of the Soviet Union, no longer considered London to be a safe haven.

“No one now would consider the United Kingdom to be a safe haven; it turned out to be a pirate haven,” he said.

The Kremlin’s relations with the West have peaked to their worst since the depths of the Cold War after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February this year and called it a “special military operation”.

More than 200 civilians in Russia’s captivity

06:51 , Arpan Rai

A total of 232 civilians are held hostages in Russian captivity in eastern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia oblast, regional governor Oleksandr Starukh said.

The top official said that 574 of the region’s citizens were captured by Russian forces since the invasion began in February.

International organisations are often "helpless" when it comes to human rights violations, he said.

Russian troops unlikely to make significant advances in next several months - MoD

06:33 , Arpan Rai

The Russian ground forces are unlikely to make operationally significant advances within the next several months, the British defence ministry has said today in its latest intelligence update.

The ministry pointed to Russian presidential spokesperson Dimitry Peskov’s rearticulation of Moscow’s main goals of the ‘special military operation’.

“He said that one of Russia’s main objectives was the ‘protection’ of residents of the Donbas and south-eastern Ukraine but claimed there was still much work to be done regarding ‘liberation’ of those territories,” the ministry noted.

The remarks suggest that “Russia’s current minimum political objectives of the war remain unchanged.”

“Russia is likely still aiming to extend control over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts. Russian military planners likely still aim to prioritise advancing deeper into Donetsk oblast,” the MoD noted.

It added: “However, Russia’s strategy is currently unlikely to achieve its objectives: it is highly unlikely that the Russian military is currently able to generate an effective striking force capable of retaking these areas.”

Ukraine’s eastern front line battered in cross-border shelling

06:04 , Arpan Rai

The entire eastern front line has been destroyed in the continuous shelling and heavy fighting between the Ukrainian and Russian forces.

Russian forces are still proceeding to break through Ukraine’s defence near Avdiivka and Bakhmut as they face training tanks and artillery fire on 26 settlements in the region, the general staff of the Ukrainian armed forces said last evening.

Attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with waves of missile and drone strikes have also continued.

Biden welcomes Zelensky’s ‘openness to peace’

04:38 , Arpan Rai

Joe Biden has welcomed Volodymyr Zelensky’s “ openness to a just peace based on fundamental principles enshrined in the United Nations Charter,” the White House said.

Mr Biden also highlighted to Mr Zelensky during a call on Sunday how the United States is prioritising efforts to boost Ukraine’s air defence through the assistance it is offering, the White House said in a readout.

The US president has reaffirmed Washington’s “commitment to continue providing Ukraine with security, economic, and humanitarian assistance, holding Russia accountable for its war crimes and atrocities, and imposing costs on Russia for its aggression”, a readout of the conversation between the two leaders said.

Many killed in strike on Putin’s private Wagner HQ in eastern Ukraine

04:10 , Arpan Rai

A huge number of Vladimir Putin’s private Wagner military ground have been killed in a Ukrainian strike, officials said, adding that the injured forces will not be able to access sufficient medical care to survive the attack.

Exiled Ukrainian governor Serhiy Haidai said yesterday a “huge number of those who were there died”.

They had a little pop there, just where Wagner headquarters was located, he said.

Ukrainian forces launched a strike on a hotel in the town of Kadiivka, west of the region’s main centre of Luhansk, Mr Haidai said.

Photos of the site of the attack showed a building largely reduced to rubble.

"I am sure that at least 50 per cent of those who managed to survive will die before they get medical care," the Ukraine-backed Luhansk governor said. "This is because even in our Luhansk region, they have stolen equipment."

The attack and related casualties have not been confirmed by Moscow.

Wagner group is among the top three mercenary groups armed and fighting in the Russian invasion of its former Soviet territory.

Just in April this year, close to 3,000 members of the private military company were believed to have been killed on the battlefield in Ukraine while fighting for Russia, British MPs have been told.

03:33 , Arpan Rai

Good morning, welcome to our coverage of the Ukraine war on Monday, 12 December.