Ukraine knows it is finished
While politicians in Britain pontificate, a thousand miles away, outside the city of Kharkiv, Ukraineâs war with Russia is intensifying. Kyiv has been forced to redirect thousands of troops to the north-eastern part of the front line to fend off Putinâs assault, leaving its defences exposed elsewhere.
The war is reaching a critical juncture, as yet again Western interest in aiding Ukraine is at risk of waning. President Zelensky appears to be aware that Ukraineâs time is running out: over the weekend, he called on US president Joe Biden and Chinese premier Xi Jinping to attend the upcoming Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland to advance a âreal peaceâ.
Last week, Reuters reported that Russian sources were claiming that Putin himself was prepared to entertain the notion of a ceasefire. âPutin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire â to freeze the war,â one said. Asked about these claims, Putin called for negotiations to resume as long as they were based on ârealities on the groundâ. In other words, Putin would be happy to stop the war as long as he got to keep the territory he has occupied.
This chipper mood shouldnât surprise us. Putin knows that, for now, he holds the advantage. Circumventing sanctions and strengthening ties with the likes of China, Iran and North Korea has allowed him to pivot his economy on to a war footing. While the Ukrainian army is forced to wait for Western aid and weapons to trickle in, Russia is catching up in its ability to produce ammunition that matches Ukraineâs Western technology in quality and far outstrips it in quantity.
Indeed, the delay in passing the ÂŁ60 billion US aid package for Kyiv is surely in part to thank for the difficulty Ukraine has had in throwing off Russiaâs advance on Kharkiv. Putinâs generals saw weakness and took their chance.
While Ukraine will soon see fresh recruits to the armed forces, thanks to new legislation passed last month expanding the age of conscription, meanwhile, the disparity in mass is beginning to tell. Russiaâs population is approximately three and a half times the size of Ukraineâs and Putin certainly has no qualms about sending young men into the meat grinder. The harsh reality is that Ukraine risks simply running out of men to fight.
Zelenskyâs team appear concerned that, as attention on both sides of the Atlantic turns to domestic elections and leaders are forced to pick between foreign and domestic priorities, Ukraineâs fight against Putin will fall by the wayside. He has good reason to think so. Despite Zelenskyâs appeals, it appears that Biden is likely to skip his planned peace summit, apparently preferring to attend a fundraiser in California with celebrities including George Clooney and Julia Roberts.
Speaking yesterday, Zelensky condemned Bidenâs reported plan to skip it, saying â[His] absence would only be met with applause by Putin.â But while these words would once have held weight, they now look likely to be shrugged off.
As Putin consolidates his strength and the West loses interest, it looks increasingly that Ukraine has just a few months of resistance left. While the general election here rumbles on, we should not forget the war in the East. A Russian victory in Ukraine would rewrite the map of Europe and present the continent with a threat not seen for more than 80 years. We must not forget this.