Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer has '1% chance' of keeping Plymouth Moor View seat

MP Johnny Mercer takes part in media interviews after the Conservatives lose control of Plymouth City Council to Labour following the local elections
-Credit: (Image: Carl Eve)

Pollsters are claiming that there is an almost certain likelihood that Veterans Minister Johnny Mercer, elected to the seat of Plymouth Moor View in 2015, is to lose to Labour's Fred Thomas.

Exit polls have suggested there is a 99% chance that Mr Mercer, a former British Army captain, will lose his seat to Mr Thomas a former Royal Marine.

Mr Thomas is set to snatch the seat back for Labour, last held by Alison Seabeck, now a Plymouth City Council councillor who goes under the name Alison Raynsford.

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In 2015 Mr Mercer sneaked over the line with 16,020 votes against Ms Seabeck's 14,994. He extended his lead in 2017 with 23,567 to Sue Dann's 18,548 for Labour and again in 2019 he extended it even further with 26,831 votes to Labour's Charlotte Holloway who secured just 13,934.

However, the political pendulum appears to have swung back again and the Ipsos exit poll for Sky News, BBC and ITV News is currently claiming that Mr Mercer has just a 1% chance of holding onto his seat in Plymouth Moor View.

Despite this, with the gusto and determination that he has thrown himself into this campaign, it's likely he will try and continue to fight the odds right up to the last moment.