New voter poll says Conservative mayor of West Midlands Andy Street will lose by huge 14% margin

The first credible voting poll for the West Midlands mayoral election shows Conservative Andy Street losing by a huge margin and Reform's candidate Elaine Williams snatching third place.

Labour's Richard Parker would win by 14%, polling 42% of the vote if the poll took place today, according to respected pollsters Redfield and Wilton Strategies. But both Labour and Conservative insiders sounded a strong note of caution, saying the results of this first poll did not match their own intelligence and feedback on the doorstep.

"We think it will be much, much closer," said insiders with both teams. "The only poll that matters is on May 2nd," added one, the rest is hot air.

But reality is starting to bite for Street's staunch supporters. The findings, published April 16th, appear to confirm that the Conservatives are in for a dire election year, that the leadership of Rishi Sunak has worsened their standing and right wing Reform UK could emerge as the third party, overtaking the Lib Dems and Greens.

READ MORE: Mayoral candidates grilled on transport, economy and jobs ahead of polling day

Andy Street has been one of the Conservatives' rare success stories in a difficult year, retaining his personal standing despite the chaos swirling in Westminster. First elected in 2017, he is bidding for his third term.

He recognises that re-election will depend on him successfully persuading enough non-Tory voters to choose him as an individual over his affiliation to the beleaguered party. Speaking in recent hustings events and in media interviews, he has highlighted the times he has stood up to party chiefs over HS2, donations and racist comments.

But if the polling is to be believed, it is all to no avail. The poll results showed:

• Richard Parker (Labour) 42%

• Andy Street (Conservative) 28%

• Elaine Williams (Reform UK) 13%

• Siobhan Harper-Nunes (Green) 7%

• Sunny Virk (Liberal Democrat) 7%

• Akhmed Yakoob/other candidates 2%

When those who say they do not know how they would vote are included, Parker leads by 12%. Of the 14% who are undecided, around 9% had voted for Street last time around. Those rejecting Street who voted for him last time were evenly split between Parker and the Reform candidate.

The poll reiterated Andy Street's personal recognisability, with 47% of the electorate knowing who he was, while just under half were 'not at all' familiar with Parker. On issues that would help decide their vote, most said the economy, healthcare and housing were top of their concerns.

Despite the party's travails, Andy Street comes out with an overall positive approval rating (+12%), though the most positive net satisfaction rating was on an issue he doesn't currently control - policing and crime. There was a mixed reaction to his ability to win funding for the region out of central Government, with more than 55% either not knowing or giving a neutral rating on this measure, while 24% described him doing a good job.

We grilled the six candidates at our live hustings - follow our live coverage here

While Street’s re-election prospects look slim on this polling, he is in a considerably stronger position than the Conservative Party as a whole when West Midlands voters are asked how they would vote in a General Election. This shows the Conservatives trailing by 28%.

Asked about voting if a General Election was today, the polling revealed:

• Labour 52%

• Conservative 24%

• Reform UK 12%

• Liberal Democrat 7%

• Green 5%

• Other 1%

Just 51% of voters in the West Midlands who voted Conservative in 2019 say they would vote Conservative again. Some 20% of 2019 Conservative voters in the West Midlands now intend to vote for Reform UK, while 19% say they would vote Labour.

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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has a terrible personal rating, while any efforts to 'level up' the region are given short shrift, with 62% saying the Government has not done enough. The findings on the future of HS2 will also disappoint Street, with 35% of West Midlanders now in favour of the decision to scrap the line north to Manchester, and 32% opposed.

Local intel suggests the battle will be much closer. Turnout remains vital for both major parties - if the margin of victory is expected to be especially large, Labour voters might assume their effort is not required.

The poll also failed to account for the potential emerging vote for independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob, who has a strong following in some parts of the region for his strong pro Palestine stance. Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council.