Welsh secretary David TC Davies says he has lost his seat at the general election

-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)
-Credit: (Image: Getty Images)

Welsh secretary David TC Davies has said he has lost his Monmouthshire seat. The veteran MP has conceded he thinks he has lost to Labour's Catherine Fookes.

Mr Davies has been in Parliament for the last 19 years and went into the election with a majority of more than 9,000 from the 2019 election. He told BBC Wales: "On the basis of the exit poll, there isn't a chance that I'll be winning, which is disappointing.

"I've had great support from the local association, but the fact is, people wanted a change. That's the way it goes into democracy. I'll be the first to acknowledge there's going to be a massive Labour victory and I certainly won't be in Parliament at the end of the evening and I'll put that on the record".

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However, Cardiff University academic Dr Jac Larner has a different interpretation of the exit poll and what it means for Wales. He says it shows the Conservatives are likely to hold Montgomeryshire and Monmouthshire, but lose Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, by big margin. Plaid Cymru would win Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin with healthy margins, he says, adding to their safe seats of Ceredigion Preseli and Dwyfor Meirionnydd. However, he has warned there are traditionally issues with the sampling about Plaid Cymru in exit polls.

The exit poll is based on interviews with 20,000 people across some 133 constituencies. As such, it is much more reliable than a normal poll but is still not a reliable guide to constituencies where there are local factors that may influence the vote.

The exit poll, released at 10pm, predicts a Labour majority of 170. Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is on course to lose 241 seats. Reform UK, the party led by Nigel Farage is on course to take its first seats with a projection of 13. A party needs 326 seats for a majority.

The exit poll says:

  • Labour: 410 seats (up 209)

  • Conservatives: 131 seats (down 241)

  • Liberal Democrats: 61 (up 53)

  • Reform: 13 (up 13)

  • SNP: 10 (down 38)

  • Plaid Cymru: 4 (up 2)

  • Green Party: 2 (up one)

  • Others: 19

In 1997, Tony Blair won a majority of 179 seats. The Conservatives are predicted to slump to 131 MPs, their lowest number in post-war history.

The exit poll is used to estimate the election result before all the votes are counted. It is carried out by polling company Ipsos, jointly for BBC News, ITV News and Sky News.