Why the 2017 F1 rule changes will not level the playing field | Giles Richards

During the period of inventive speculation that characterises Formula One’s pre-season before the first test in Barcelona, there has been a sense that the new rules for 2017 really might reinvigorate the competition after three years of dominance by Mercedes.

Step forward then on Tuesday Mark Webber, with a reminder of some of the stark realities of the new era – that power, the cornerstone of the German marque’s success, remains paramount.

Nor is he alone. Speaking on Wednesday evening to Patrick Head, who was at the sharp and successful end of interpreting many new technical regulations, was equally telling. “If anybody was thinking of these rules with the aim of closing the field up then they’ve got rocks in their head,” he said with characteristic honesty.

The aim of the rule changes was faster, more aggressive-looking cars that are harder to drive and that offer the chance for other teams to close the gap to Mercedes. The focus has been on shifting design emphasis from engine to aero, a “chassis formula” that features wider cars, boasting more downforce, supplemented by greater mechanical grip from wider, more durable Pirelli rubber.

Early indications are that certainly the speeds, especially through cornering as intended, have been achieved. Simulations have shown Barcelona now running at full-throttle for 70% rather than the 50% of 2016, with turn three at the Circuit de Catalunya now being taken flat-out.

This, then, has been widely perceived as putting Red Bull, and Adrian Newey’s undeniable skill at wringing the most from an aero package, at an advantage heading into the new season. But the aero focus has a cost, as Webber noted. “The cars are going to have a lot more downforce, it’s going to be more power sensitive than ever,” he said. “You’ll need a bigger engine more than you ever have done, because of wider tyres and more drag.”

Which puts Mercedes at this stage, carrying their engine superiority, which was probably around 40-50bhp over the Renault that powered Red Bull last year, back in the driving seat. Even more so with the expected increase in top speeds as Head, a fundamental part of the Williams team’s extraordinary successes, points out.

“There is no doubt about it that the drag levels of the car will be higher,” he said. “But what makes the engine fractionally more important is that with more downforce, which they will undoubtedly have, your percentage at full throttle – the percentage of the lap at which you are power limited rather than grip limited – will be higher, so if you have that bit more power it will give a slight advantage.”

The complex token system for engine development has thankfully been abandoned and teams are free to develop power units. Ferrari, Renault and Honda will have made steps forward. But so, of course, will have Mercedes, which means that they will likely still be holding the upper hand come Australia.

The rule reset has also led to suggestions that a dark horse could come through with a radical interpretation and an immediate advantage, as Brawn did in 2009 with their double diffuser. It is still a possibility but, with the stringent rules, increasingly difficult to achieve . Then there is the reality of the haves and have-nots within F1.

“Any time you make significant changes the advantage will always go to the bigger teams,” Head said. “Because they have more resources, they have more capability to parallel develop their existing car and work on design of their new car. When you have 750 employees or more against, say, Force India’s 300, of course the bigger teams can do more. Any idea it will close the field up is nonsense.”

Head acknowledged this was not the intent: “I don’t think anyone ever said that was the target, I think the target was to make it more attractive to create a bit more excitement”. But there was, as the painful gestation of these changes proved, a definite subtext that a change in formula would help narrow the gap to Mercedes and hence, unsurprisingly, their objections to it.

There are, as of yet, no concrete reasons to believe it will have done so, but there is a danger that the reboot will even detract from the racing. More downforce means more dirty air in the wake of cars, making it more difficult to overtake. This has already been raised as a likely problem by drivers, including Lewis Hamilton, who has described adding aero as the “worst idea” in terms of promoting overtaking. The issue was also raised again by team technical engineers at an FIA meeting in Geneva on Tuesday, not a good sign with only weeks to go before testing.

Head agrees. “If they wanted a formula that allowed for more overtaking without using artificial aids like DRS then they needed to go for a formula that reduced downforce levels but they have gone in the opposite direction,” he said. Indeed, Pirelli’s motorsport director, Paul Hembery, has also already expressed similar fears, asking: “Will it improve overtaking or make it worse? I hope we are not making a wrong decision that doesn’t actually solve what we were trying to solve in the first place.”

Let’s hope not. But as yet it is still all speculation, of course, as a philosophical Head notes with a smile. “We’ll just have to wait and see,” he says. “If they’re not successful, they’ll probably have another go.”

Williams making more moves

Head’s former team Williams, which won nine constructors’ and seven drivers’ titles during their heyday, have been active on the transfer market again this week as they pursue their stated ambition of moving back into the fight with the leading teams. They have already secured Paddy Lowe from Mercedes, who is expected to be allowed to open the season with Williams subject to gardening leave from the German marque, and have now taken on Dave Redding, McLaren’s team manager, who has been with them for 17 years. He will be replaced at McLaren by chief mechanic Paul James.

Redding will step into the role previously held by sporting manager Steve Nielsen, who was behind the team consistently pulling off the fastest pit stops last year. Williams’s pursuit and securing of as experienced and respected a senior figure as Redding is another clear signal that, although they are unable to compete in outright budget or resources with the top teams, they are actively taking every opportunity to narrow the gap in every other way. He and Lowe will be key components in their planned resurgence.