Why Dominic Cummings’s campaign to discredit Boris Johnson should not be taken lightly
Behind the crumpled shirts, tracksuit bottoms and “critics go hang” persona of Dominic Cummings lies a man who really does care what people think of him. And most of all he wants to be seen as a winner.
Having been given huge credit – and even a Benedict Cumberbatch docu-drama – for his part in making Brexit happen, he desperately wanted to be The Man Who Beat Covid.
The fact that he failed in that mission, whether through his own inadequacies or, as he believes, because people in power didn’t do as he said, has been eating away at him ever since he was forced out of Number 10 last November.
The one person he is never likely to blame is himself. Imbued with the self-belief of a cult leader, Mr Cummings must instead find others to shoulder the blame, regardless of whether the facts get in the way of his narrative.
Mr Cummings’s new-found zeal for public scrutiny is particularly hard to fathom.
In a 26-part Twitter thread on Tuesday, he insisted that “one of the most fundamental and unarguable lessons of Feb-March is that secrecy contributed greatly to the catastrophe. Openness to scrutiny wd have exposed Gvt errors weeks earlier than happened”.
During his time in Downing Street, he was in overall charge of the communications strategy, but regarded journalists as “reptiles” and tried to micro-manage the work of ministers’ media advisers to shut out those reporting on Whitehall.
Rather than helping ministers get on with explaining to the public what they were doing, special advisers were expected to seek Downing Street’s approval for every proposed media briefing, which were often withheld.
Under the Cummings regime, ministerial advisers who were regarded as being too helpful to the media – in other words striving for transparency – were summarily dismissed.
Ministers were barred from appearing on the Today programme and Good Morning Britain because broadcasters dared to pick a fight with Downing Street, while others were simply barred from the airwaves altogether because they were regarded as untrustworthy, inept, or both.
While Mr Cummings undoubtedly had talents that Boris Johnson found invaluable, he has never been an elected politician and sees the world in black and white, rather than the shades of grey that make up real life.
On Tuesday he insisted that “we should have done human challenge trials immediately and could have got jabs in arms [last] summer”. Yet he possesses no medical qualifications to make such a bold statement, and makes no allowance for the fact that public confidence in a vaccine depends on the thoroughness of the process, with a significant minority still avoiding the jabs because they believe the speed of their development was rushed.
Mr Cummings, of course, will argue that his Twitter storm was motivated by a desire to improve pandemic response and save lives, but those who know him are in no doubt that he is also motivated, in part at least, by revenge.
Mr Cummings believes he was betrayed by Mr Johnson who, egged on by his fiancee Carrie Symonds, broke a pact they had agreed when Mr Cummings took on the job as the Prime Minister’s chief adviser.
Mr Cummings believed he would be given free rein to reform the civil service, carry out the levelling up agenda and set up an advanced research agency, but was ousted before any of those things were achieved.
His quickly-deleted tweet on Tuesday, darkly asking what he should do with “the only copy” of a key Covid decision-making paper, had everything to do with making his enemies squirm, and nothing to do with the public good.
Mr Cummings has an appearance before the joint health and science super committee on the Covid response next week, during which he will try to convince the world that Covid would more or less have bypassed Britain if only everyone had done exactly what he said all along.
Regardless of the truth about Covid, Mr Johnson knows that Mr Cummings is a brilliant campaigner, and that his new campaign – to discredit the Prime Minister – should not be taken lightly.
The Dominic Cummings Twitter thread explained
1/ Covid… Summary evidence on lockdowns. For UK political pundits obsessed with spreading nonsense on Sweden/lockdowns, cf. SW econ did a bit WORSE than Denmark which locked down, AND far more deaths in Sweden: https://t.co/A9TV9oRGHU
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
1: Early on in the pandemic many lockdown sceptics pointed to Sweden, which opted not to impose the same severe restrictions, as evidence that they were unnecessarily harming the economy.
However, this narrative has been fiercely contested, with critics pointing out that over the first six month nearly 6,000 Swedes died of Covid-19, one of the higher per capita death rates in Europe.
2:
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
3:
One of the biggest misunderstandings, spread by political pundits even now, is the ‘tradeoff’ argument. Fact: evidence clear that fast hard effective action best policy for economy AND for reducing deaths/suffering
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
4/ Best example: Taiwan. Also shows that if you REALLY get your act together not only is econ largely unscathed but life is ~ normal. But SW1 (Remain/Leave, Rt/Left) = totally hostile to learning from East Asia
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
4: Taiwan’s success in battling coronavirus has been attributed to a strict border policy, a ban on foreign travellers and a mandatory quarantine requirement. It has recorded just over 2,000 infections and 12 Covid-related deaths since the start of the pandemic, despite having a population of more than 23 million people.
5/ There's a general western problem based on nonsense memes like 'asians all do as they're told it won't work here'. This is what many behavioural science 'experts'/charlatans argued, disastrously, in Feb2020. This nonsense is STILL influencing policy, eg our joke borders policy
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
5: Critics of the border policy say that the quarantine policy does not go far enough, with only red list arrivals forced to spend 10 days isolating in a hotel. There is also growing anger and confusion over the amber list of countries, which are not illegal to travel to, despite ministers urging Britons not to book holidays to any destination which is not green rated.
6:
6/ Another confusion re Sweden: data shows despite no official 'lockdown' behaviour changed enormously. The closer your measures are to 'welding people inside homes' (per Wuhan at peak) the >> effect on transmission. Semantics of 'lockdown' obscure this really simple point
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
7:
7/ If you are going to have to do measures ≈ lockdown to avoid health system collapse then the harder/earlier the better & the sooner they can be released. Pseudo 'lockdowns' w/o serious enforcement are hopeless: econ hit & people die anyway, nightmare rumbles on
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 17, 2021
8/ Waiting room, 1st jab. Remembered Vallance 24/3 amid disaster: will u support taking vaccines out of DH & a new Taskforce, we need different leadership & skills to drive it? CABSEC supported divvying up DH tasks. If not, normal Whitehall process, probably normal result
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
8: The success of the Vaccine Taskforce (or “VTF”) is largely attributed to the fact that outside experts were parachuted in to lead it, with Kate Bingham, its chair, given freedom and resources to act fast to secure agreements with pharmaceutical giants.
The experience of members of the taskforce is said to partially explain why the UK has experienced fewer problems than the EU with its contracts and delivery schedules. CABSEC is believed to refer to Cabinet Secretary, the head of the civil service, who at the time was Sir Mark Sedwill.
9/ Success seems to have blinded SW1 to important Qs. a/ We did it much better than Brussels, obviously, but Brussels is not a good comparison. How well did we do relative to ‘how well wd General Groves who ran the Manhattan Project have done it?’
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
9: Lieutenant General Leslie Groves was a United States Army Corps of Engineers Office who led the Manhattan Project, the top secret research programme that developed the atomic bomb during World War II. He directed a huge construction effort and made critical decisions on the various methods of splitting the isotope, acquiring raw materials, and directing the collection of military intelligence on the German nuclear project.
10/ I think we’ll conclude we shd have done Human Challenge trials immediately & cd have got jabs in arms summer. This is not criticism of the VTF which has been constrained in ways they shdnt be. It’s cnctd to b/ where is the public plan for how the VTF will deal with variants?
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
10. Human challenge trials only took place this year, but the development of vaccines was rapid in comparison with work on jabs for other diseases. The Vaccine Taskforce has been credited with helping to deliver a major volunteer programme to ensure manufacturers were able to get jabs from development to regulatory approval faster.
11/ One of the most fundamental & unarguable lessons of Feb-March is that secrecy contributed greatly to the catastrophe. Openness to scrutiny wd have exposed Gvt errors weeks earlier than happened
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
11: The Vaccine Taskforce has been moved back from the Department for Business to the Department for Health, with some critics fearing it will be turned into another bureaucratic body. Mr Cummings has previously claimed that Matt Hancock’s department was a “smoking ruin” when the crisis struck.
12:
12/ So why are MPs accepting the lack of a public plan now for VTF viz variants? Especially when rumours reach me that the silent entropy of Whitehall is slowly turning VTF back into a ‘normal’ entity?
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
13:
13/ The best hedge re a variant escaping current vaccines is PUBLIC SCRUTINY of Gvt plans. This will hopefully show it’s been taken seriously. If not, better learn now that the Gvt has screwed up again than when ‘variant escapes’ news breaks
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
14/ I can think of no significant element of covid response that wd not have been improved by discarding secrecy and opening up. This was symbolised by e.g how COBR cd not be used: a constrained STRAP environment cd not cope with the scale/speed, another important lesson
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
14: The Civil Contingencies Committee (COBR) is convened to handle matters of national emergency or major disruption. Its purpose is to coordinate different departments and agencies. It is different from SAGE (the scientific advisory group on emergencies), which convenes independent scientific and technical experts to give advice to COBR during emergencies.
15/ Having watched classified elements of covid response, Gvt cd make the vaccine plans 99% public without risks, ‘national security’ almost totally irrelevant to the critical parts of the problem, a few things cd be withheld while publishing all crucial parts of the plan
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
15: Government sources have repeatedly cited national security concerns as a factor in why more details cannot be published on the vaccine programme and delivery schedules. While daily vaccination figures are published, the movement of vaccines within the country, as well as exports and imports from other supply chains, are steeped in secrecy.
16:
16/ These issues are relevant to c/ Who is writing the plan for ‘how we deal with something worse than covid?’ If we get this right now, we do not need to have this sort of disaster again. We’ll also be hedging vs future bioterrorism risks: cf: https://t.co/VcHMhHJroe
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
17/ The covid plan was supposed to be ‘world class’ but turned out to be part disaster, part non-existent. I urged inside Gvt to do a review of other contingency plans for more dangerous things than covid, a largely *open* process with e.g @wtgowers helping. Happening?
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
17: Prof Sir Timothy Gowers is a prominent mathematician and a Fellow of the Royal Society. He sits on the Society’s DELVE committee, which is analysing data on the UK’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic and is providing input to SAGE. He has not been asked to look into other contingency planning for potential emergencies or disasters.
18/ MPs shd force publication of vaccine/variant plan & require mostly open review of other contingency plans before we find out the hard way they're as 'world class' as the covid plan...
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
18: MPs could attempt to force the Government to publish its plan for tackling variants of concern through Parliamentary motions, although it is unclear how opposition parties such as Labour would command enough support in the Commons, as Boris Johnson wields a majority of 80.
19/ Such reviews shd seek out those were right & early on covid. Such people are more likely to spot that other plans have errors, gaps, that institutional planning has blind spots, failure to look at crucial operational details etc. E.g @MWStory
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
19: Michael Story is a so-called “superforecaster” – someone who tends to be better at making predictions – and has been pictured outside of Downing Street previously. Last year, Mr Cummings hired Andrew Sabisky, another superforecaster, as a contractor.
However, he was forced to resign over a series of past remarks.
20/ P Vallance & I supported opening up SAGE much earlier than it happened. I argued before 1st lockdown to open up the CODE of SPI-M models for scrutiny. Barrier = SW1 cultural hostility to openness & this barrier means SAGE still too closed & too little of its workings public
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
20: Sir Patrick Vallance has pushed for the Scientific Advisory Committee on Emergencies to regularly publish minutes and documents, which it now does weekly. However, the documents are sometimes published weeks after decisions are taken, and are difficult to navigate.
21:
21/ Looking at minutes does not give good insight to reality of discussions. E.g looking at minutes of crucial 18/3, which I attended, does not convey true situation, discussion, atmosphere, effects
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
22:
22/ With something as critical as variants escaping vaccines, there is *no* justification for secrecy, public interest unarguably is *open scrutiny of the plans*
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
23/ This point is critical re Groves/Manhattan/vaccines & wider covid & wider issue of gvt performance: our civilisation is *abysmal* at seeking Groves/Bob Taylors & getting them into critical roles, *bureaucracies exclude & expel them*, as they did with Groves/Taylor! pic.twitter.com/gCr5FlwkvT
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
23: Robert (Bob) Taylor was a prominent American computer scientist who previously worked for the US Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA). Mr Cummings has successfully argued for a British version, the Advanced Research & Invention Agency.
Its £800 million in funding will help drive cutting-edge research in areas such as artificial intelligence and data.
24/ The public inquiry will at no point ask: how does the deep institutional wiring of the parties/civil service program destructive behaviour by putting the wrong ppl in wrong jobs with destructive incentives? It will all be about relatively surface errors
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
24: Boris Johnson has announced that a full public inquiry into the Covid-19 pandemic will be set up from Spring next year. However, it remains uncertain whether it will conclude before the next general election.
25:
25/ If SW1 wanted to 'learn' there wd already be a serious exercise underway. The point of the inquiry is the opposite of learning, it is to delay scrutiny, preserve the broken system & distract public from real Qs, leaving the parties & senior civil service essentially untouched
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021
26:
26/ J Phillips, a brilliant young neuroscientist I recruited to no10, argued for immediate Human Challenge Trials, as did others. We were *far* too slow to listen to such advice. The science 'misfits' who urged this early were clearly right, the 'ethicists' disastrously wrong
— Dominic Cummings (@Dominic2306) May 18, 2021