Yahoo News Why Gaza TikTok lawyer and Reform UK will win or lose West Midlands Mayor vote for Andy Street
Dismissed as 'a noisy TikTok lawyer' with little hope of cutting through to the masses, there is suddenly newfound respect for Akhmed Yakoob among the West Midlands political elite as polling day looms in the region's mayoral election. Though when I say respect, I really mean fear.
It looks increasingly likely that this 36-year-old 'upstart' from Aston, with his shades, supercars and a Gaza-focussed campaign, could grab a big enough percentage of the traditional Labour vote to hold sway in this week's mayoral battle. That's the stuff of nightmares for the Labour camp - especially when a vote for Yakoob comes with the added spice of Rochdale MP George Galloway's endorsement.
"Yakoob could take enough of the Labour share of the vote to pave the way for Conservative Andy Street to get back in the mayor's office," said his team. "Yakoob is tapping into a widespread disillusionment, particularly among Muslims and Asian people generally in poorer parts of the region and especially in Birmingham, that they have been let down - not just by the Conservative government but also by a Labour council," says one.
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But it's not just Labour who are worried about losing votes to protest candidates. Arch Tory Jacob Rees-Mogg has tweeted to urge Reform UK supporters to 'lend their votes' to Andy Street to keep Labour at bay. It's all hotting up ahead of voting day on Thursday (May 2).
Yakoob, who has a huge TikTok following, highlights concerns about local bus services, unemployment, the rubbish strewn streets and hungry children in his leaflets and campaign videos but it is Gaza which is central to his campaign. Local mayors have no input into foreign policy, of course, and Yakoob and his supporters know that.
On Thursday George Galloway joined him on the campaign trail urging Muslim voters to back him for the “voiceless people at home and abroad”. There is much anger at Keir Starmer's stance on Gaza, amid claims he failed to stand up to the Conservative Government and Israel in the onslaught that followed the Hamas terror atrocity on October 7th.
Some of Yakoob's comments have been branded anti-Semitic - not least a repeat of racist tropes about a 'Zionist elite' having global reach - and misogynistic. Yakoob was in a podcast chat, since deleted, that focussed on urging Muslim men to 'control their women' and oversee how they dress and behave. He has since distanced himself from the podcast, described it as 'ill conceived banter' and said he aspires to "the teachings of my faith and universally held principles of equity and equality - ‘No man has the right to control women in any aspects of their life.’"
He told BirminghamLive: "The unfortunate experience has made me mindful with who I share platforms with. I’m on a journey and happy to learn and move forwards to become a better version of myself. It’s not easy being in the public eye or standing for office."
Javed Iqbal, from Birmingham's Alum Rock Community Forum, says it is time that mainstream parties 'woke up' and realised residents were finding hope and a voice in alternative politicians. "A lot of people in our inner city communities have been ignored for so long. Living conditions are worsening, and inequality is a big issue. Then on Gaza, ordinary people don't see mainstream politicians standing up against these atrocities and calling them out. There are atrocities happening across the world too, with no sign of anger."
He added: "I think Labour thought this was going to be a straight fight between them and Andy Street, but along comes Yakoob and he's put a spanner in the works."
But not everyone is happy with Yakoob's narrowly focussed campaign, or his claim to represent the majority Muslim view. One comment on a previous story asked: "Have the Muslim community in Birmingham been so brainwashed that they would vote for a Mayor over one issue? What about schools, housing, healthcare, roads? It’s just Gaza and George Galloway? For goodness sake, get a grip people of Birmingham."
But just as likely is the fear among Tories that Reform UK's candidate Elaine Williams could keep Andy Street out of the mayoralty. She is currently polling at around 9% - a big enough chunk of the vote to inspire the likes of Jacob Rees-Mogg to come out urging possible Reform voters to lend their vote to Street to keep out Labour. That's as clear a sign you can get of panic setting in.
Polling update
Latest polls suggest the contest could be extremely tight. A voting intentions poll by MoreInCommon at the weekend has Andy Street up two points on his Labour rival Richard Parker. Reform UK and the Green Party candidates are tying on third, while Yakoob and the Lib Dems' candidate Sunny Virk are both on 3%.
It's a poll outcome largely mirrored by a YouGov poll, which has declared the contest 'too close to call'. Said YouGov: "Our poll shows the vote is on a knife edge, with 41% saying they intend to vote for Street, while 39% say they would back his Labour challenger Richard Parker. These results are within the margin of error of one another, with the outcome therefore too close to call."
A flurry of social media pleas are now going out from Labour supporters imploring people not to vote for a minor candidate. This would be a 'wasted vote' and let in Andy Street and the Conservatives 'by default', they say.
Back to Iqbal, who says if Andy Street gets back in because Labour defectors are voting for Yakoob or anyone else, that is 'good news'. "For too long the Labour hierarchy and MPs in Birmingham have taken the Muslim vote for granted. No more."
READ MORE: Secret dates, jam sandwiches and school trips - mayor hopeful promises to bring back Number 11 bus
For his part, Yakoob is delighted with the response to his campaign. "The vast majority of voters are fed up with the main two parties and I’m coming through the middle and will secure a significant vote to let the mainstream parties that they do not represent us, rather they put corporate interests before the public."
He added: "I feel I will take a strong vote and it will be a massive electoral swing for an Independent. I resonate with Joe Public because I’m not a polished politician...many people feel strongly about the state of Britain, especially the West Midlands, which has become the child poverty capital of the UK. Our governments seem to find money for military jaunts - 'they find money for war but can’t feed the poor.’"
His next target is Shabana Mahmood, Ladywood MP and Labour frontbencher. He intends to take her on at the General Election - and the signs are he could prove a difficult opponent.
Elaine Williams, a solicitor from Walsall, could pull off the 'disrupter' trick for ReformUK, to the detriment of the Tories. Greens candidate Siobhan Harper-Nunes is polling strongly at 6%, while the Lib Dems' Sunny Virk is drifting away in last spot, with an expected vote of just 2%. But, as they say, there is only one poll that counts.
Does change in election rules affect who will be mayor?
A change in voting rules for this mayoral election has ensured that minor candidates this time round have a major say in the outcome. In previous mayoral elections, a Supplementary Vote system was in place.
That meant that voters were asked to make a first and second choice on their ballot paper. This enabled them to vote 'in protest' with their first vote and then vote for a mainstream candidate (usually either Labour or Tory) for their second choice.
First choice votes would be added up and, if no candidate reached a 50 per cent threshold, the two candidates with the highest number of votes only would remain. The other candidates would be eliminated.
Votes cast for the eliminated candidates would then be recounted and any second choice votes for one of the remaining candidates would be transferred to them, giving a grand final total that would decide the election. This time round, as in General and most Local elections, it's first past the post.
