Why tactical voting could make a big difference in Swindon and Wiltshire

Tactical voting could yet make a huge difference in a number of constituencies if the More in Common MRP poll is in any way accurate.

Most obviously is the hugely tight marginal seat of Chippenham. With a projected win for the Conservatives of just 0.4 per cent over the Lib Dems, any switch to the Lib Dems from Labour or Green or even independent voters could swing the result.

READ MORE: New poll predicts Swindon and Wiltshire election results

Conversely, if Reform voters switch to the Conservatives, it could shore up the Tories’ winning vote share.

If Green, Liberal Democrat or Labour voters in four other constituencies - Melksham & Devizes, South West Wiltshire, Salisbury, and East Wiltshire combine votes, it could make things tighter in the seats projected to be held by the Conservatives.

But equally, switches to the Conservatives by Reform voters could see the Tories home even against the tactically combined votes of Labour, Lib Dem and Green supporters.

In Swinson North a combination of Conservative and Reform vote share would make the race very tight indeed, and according to More in Common, Labour would need some switching from the Lib Dems or Greens to see off such a challenge.

Tactical voting seems unlikely to affect the race in South Cotswolds according to the figures put out by More in Common.

While anything is yet possible,  the most likely tactical vote of Reform and Conservative voters doesn’t beat the projected Liberal Democrat vote share even without any switching to the Lib Dems by Labour or Green voters.

And the 53.7 per cent  vote share projected for Labour in Swindon South is impervious to any combination of tactical vote switching from other parties.