Wycombe shows ‘scale’ of expected Tory wipeout in general election – political expert

A Conservative loss in Wycombe would show the ‘scale’ of the expected Tory wipeout in the 2024 general election, a political expert has said.

In an analysis of Buckinghamshire’s political landscape, Dr Nick Dickinson of Balliol College, Oxford University, gave his take on Steve Baker’s predicted defeat in Wycombe after 14 years as its MP.

Various polls have forecast that the Conservative incumbent, who has won four elections in a row, will be ousted by Labour’s Emma Reynolds, who would become the party’s first MP for Wycombe since John Haire 73 years ago.

Dr Dickinson explained that the Tories’ loss of Wycombe would echo the national picture for the party at this election and that, taken with other predicted losses, was reminiscent of Labour’s election victory under Clement Attlee in the 1940s.

He told the Bucks Free Press: “This seat has been Conservative since the early 20th century with the exception of the Labour Government of 1945 to 1951.

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“It shows the scale of what we are seeing that a seat like Wycombe seems to be about to be lost by the Conservatives.

“I think it draws a natural analogy between what we are about to see and 1945, the first ever Labour majority government, that landslide election after World War Two. In some ways, Wycombe is indicative of the scale of what we are looking at.”

Dr Dickinson is a specialist in British and Commonwealth comparative politics, working primarily in the areas of parliamentary studies and public policy.

The politics expert also took a wider look at Buckinghamshire, where Labour is also forecast to overturn Aylesbury from the Conservatives, as well as turning the newly formed Buckingham and Bletchley red.

Labour’s expected victories in these seats match the national predictions by major pollsters which give the party a lead of around 20 points over the Conservatives and say it will emerge with a majority of up to 280 seats after the July 4 vote.

Dr Dickinson claimed that Buckinghamshire’s remaining Conservative MPs – which could include Joy Morrissey (Beaconsfield) and Greg Smith (Mid Buckinghamshire) – will be ‘ones to watch’ as they may form a ‘significant part’ of what is left of the Tories.

He said: “We could see them playing a pretty prominent role in the Conservative Party going forward because if they are reduced to less than 100 seats, Buckinghamshire is going to be driving the Conservative leadership contest.”

The political expert explained that Baker could be among the leadership contenders should he hold onto his seat, but that this would depend on the mood within the Conservative Party.

He said: “We don’t know what the electorate will be. Baker is a prominent MP who is popular with part of the membership. But we don’t know what that is going to look like yet.

“It could lean more in the direction of his part of the party, libertarian but pro-Brexit, but it could also lean further towards the wing of the party that is less libertarian and more focused on law and order.”

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