Youth vote critical to presidential election

Feb. 10—The youth vote could be critical to both political parties in the upcoming presidential election.

In a close election, votes from young adults will be important, according to Valley political experts. Their support and votes won two presidential elections for Barack Obama and the 2020 election for Joe Biden.

Biden won 61 percent of voters between the ages of 18 and 29 in 2020, according to AP VoteCast, making young voters a critical part of his coalition. However, his approval ratings within that age group now stand at 29 percent compared to 40 percent overall, according to a new AP-NORC poll.

"For the most part, young people are concerned about the same things that everyone else is, namely, the economy, prices, and economic security," said Chris Ellis, Bucknell professor of political science. "The specific nature of the concerns might be different than those of older voters — they're concerned about how they are going to afford their first home, or whether they will have the job security that their parents did, and things like that. But these concerns trump all others for the youth voters that are up for grabs in the election."

Some other young voters, like the educated, engaged ones that you find on college campuses, do have other priorities, Ellis said.

They are "focusing more on social issues — things like abortion, transgender rights, or Israel/Palestine," he said. "These things are all more important to young voters than they are for others. But undecided youth voters are going to move in the same direction, and for mostly the same reasons, as other undecided voters."

Nick Clark, Susquehanna University professor of political science said he doesn't expect youth turnout to decline significantly.

"Overall levels of engagement with the political process remain quite high, but it will decline from 2020," he said. "And that could matter in what is almost sure to be a very close election. We may have a situation where both major candidates are well below 50 percent and it is a question of who reaches a plurality. Especially in that instance, declining youth turnout could damage President Biden."

It's still months from the election, so most young voters, like most normal people, aren't dialed in yet, Ellis said.

"That's one of the reasons why polls seem to be all over the map when polling the election among youth voters — a good number don't have strong preferences yet," he said.

Agreeing with Ellis is Penn State, The Behrend College, associate political science professor Robert Speel.

"It's hard to know this far in advance how young adults will vote and what their voter turnout will be in November 2024," he said. "There is a significant lack of enthusiasm for what looks likely to be the two oldest presidential candidates in U.S. history.

"Most younger voters would almost certainly prefer younger candidates."

Like Speel, Clark believes young voters "are slightly more likely to be unhappy with both candidates than other age groups. Particularly with President Biden, who picked up far more youth voters than President Trump in 2020."

Ellis believes youth turnout will be up this year.

"Even though neither major party candidate will be relatable to young people, there is a rise in younger people's willingness to be engaged in politics compared to other times in the previous 30 years," he said. "Some of this manifests itself in non-conventional ways: protesting, boycotting products, or social media campaigns. But we also see it in more garden variety things like voting.

"I don't know exactly where it will go yet, but yes, the youth vote will be important this year."

Some early polls have shown Trump doing well among younger voters, but Speel said he is skeptical about those results.

"They may reflect disenchantment with Biden's age, though Trump is almost as old," he said. "My sense among my students is that they are paying attention to political events and issues, but are so far unenthusiastic about the leading presidential candidates."

Younger voters tend to have a mix of views about the economy, Speel said.

"They are more socially liberal and more concerned about climate change than older voters," he said. "Such views can favor Democrats, but many younger voters also feel that Joe Biden doesn't go far enough on those issues or is too old to understand when situations need to change."

He also said younger voters are more likely than older voters to favor dramatic changes in policies.

"This phenomenon often makes younger voters more supportive of politicians who run against establishment ideas," he said. "But it's not clear that Trump is a candidate who can capitalize on that, nor do any of the current third-party or independent candidates running seem like strong choices to win over young voters.

"The Biden campaign's emphasis during the general election campaign will likely be on trying to motivate high voter turnout among young adults."