Energy Crunch: Don't Expect Return To 1970s

Are you ready for winter?

This question is at the heart of today’s National Grid Winter Outlook report.

The weather is predicted to reach around 20 degrees in some parts of the UK on the final day of October this year so it’s no wonder consumers aren’t planning how to manage their energy use for the winter ahead.

But while customer use or demand is an important part of the equation – power supply is the key – and that’s where the UK’s plan falls apart.

In the past year, several power plants have experienced unexpected shutdowns due to fire, breakdowns and accidents.

At the same time, the building of new plants has been terribly slow and faced numerable delays.

Which is why today National Grid is warning that our electricity supply margin has narrowed from last year, to the lowest level since 2007.

Which means, technically, the risk of blackouts, and brownout (where power use is limited, but not cut off completely) is increasing.

But asking three, more detailed questions, reveals that there isn’t call for panic just yet and the prospect of a return to rolling blackouts last seen in the mid-1970s.

:: What is the likelihood of blackouts actually occurring?

The National Grid says that in the event of the UK experiencing the coldest snap in 20 years, then electricity supplies would not meet demand for up to two weeks in January.

But there is only a 5% chance of this cold snap even happening. And not meeting demand, is not the same thing as a blackout. Which brings us to the next question.

:: How would it work?

Consumers and businesses would be encouraged to iron-out their electricity consumption across the full day, rather than all pile in at peak times.

This would reduce the likelihood of a total collapse at any one point in the day though whether families want to get up to put the dryer on at 3am is a question not addressed in National Grid’s report.

Energy intensive business may be able to reorganise themselves to do this more easily, which leads nicely to – the final question.

:: Are emergency measures put in place by National Grid sufficient?

National Grid had started a programme to PAY some businesses to reduce their energy consumption, and time it more evenly with periods when consumer demand is not lower.

In addition, they are un-mothballing some plants previously marked for closure, to have them on standby should that mythical cold snap happen.

The Grid says these plans will lift the electricity margin back up to 6.1% from the 4.1% it is warning is the level at present.

And though it’s not a pleasant thought, consumers must remember that behind all the statistics and warnings there is electricity to be had, no matter how cold the weather gets.

It will just cost more.