Four Months On: Assessing The Libya Conflict

It is four months after the start of the Nato bombing campaign in Libya and in the blue skies above the capital, Tripoli, people catch an occasional glimpse of jet bombers glinting white in the sunlight.

But mainly they can hear them passing overhead followed by the scream of a missile and rumble of explosions after the latest attack.

On state television there is an almost constant stream of images of death and destruction edited with mournful or patriotic music.

Women crying, children injured and men fighting amid enormous explosions that look like something produced in Hollywood - indeed some of them almost certainly are lifted from the cinema.

If the Western plan was for a quick end to the Colonel Gaddafi era in Libya , it has either gone terribly wrong or was actually a miscalculation from the very beginning.

I suspect the latter.

Gaddafi is part of the very fabric of this country, and those who rose against him in February hoping to bring proper change lacked absolute support.

Far worse - they never had the support of the military and Gaddafi did.

When, for a few days in that month, the regime wobbled, there simply were not enough protesters to overrun the military commanders.

As the Colonel deployed his troops in the all-important west of the country, to crush opposition with live fire and brutal suppression, the initial revolution was snuffed out.

In the intervening weeks, the rebels have grown in international stature and are now recognized by much of the international community.

But in military terms, outside of their strongholds in the east and the Nefusa mountains in the west, they are outgunned and out of their class.

In recent days I have been to a handful of western cities and towns where rallies of thousands have gathered to show their support for Gaddafi.

In some, they have taken to the streets brandishing a huge collection of weapons clearly handed out to volunteers by the government.

What is important is that the many people I have chatted to are absolute in that support.

The rallies are organized - but the sentiment, in my opinion, is real.

It does not mean that everyone in this part of the country supports Gaddafi, but a lot certainly do.

Does that mean there is an absolute stalemate, or that this can only be finished with an ever more bloody series of battles? I am not convinced.

Apart from the single greatest stumbling block - that the Gaddafi supporters insist he stays and the rebels that he must go - one gets a sense that a negotiated end to this would be pretty popular with all.

A militia group of gun-toting women in the frontline town of Gharyan in the Nefusa mountains told me that they wanted to talk peace immediately.

"Above all we want to listen to their grievances and talk to them," their commander told me.

"The Brother Leader must stay, but we will talk about everything else."

In a country where nearly everyone lives along the Mediterranean coastal strip, the often-repeated argument that the country is divided from east to west is basically nonsense.

I regularly meet people from across the country, who are living in Tripoli, and they hate what is happening.

The family ties and links are so important here that the concept of brothers literally fighting brothers to the death seems extremely unlikely.

So what of negotiation? It is happening on different levels.

On one level, there has been international contact.

A meeting between United States officials and Gaddafi representatives, when the Americans warned that he must go, is just part of a wider diplomatic effort involving the UN and countries ranging from France to Turkey and South Africa.

On another level, I believe that although the rebels are preparing for further conflict - witness Brega - they are also in contact with the government and looking for a solution.

But a much more fundamental negotiation is also taking place - between the Libyan people themselves.

Families want to end this and want to move the country forward to get back to a normal life.

As in Egypt and Tunisia, even the most ardent supporters of the Regime agree that change is needed to advance Libya.

Terrible things have happened here - towns are in ruins, hundreds or maybe thousands have died, thousands are missing and there is bitter resentment which will last a generation.

But a bloody impasse is where Libya is at and the Libyan people do not want this.

It is time for the "family" to step up and talk, and for the leadership on both sides to do the right thing - however hard that may be.

It is called leading, brother.