2024 Emmy Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series

We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.

Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.

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The State of the Race

To put things into perspective, the Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series race was solely between the stars of “Succession” and “The White Lotus,” despite there being eight nomination slots up for grabs.

Given how there are no Drama Series competitors with the same kind of pedigree, that small a pool of show’s represented is unlikely to happen this year, but it does convey how there is a tendency for voters to zero in on specific shows in the supporting performance categories.

If “Shōgun” is now the agreed-upon Drama frontrunner, then Japanese actors Tadanobu Asano and Takehiro Hira stand out enough in the period ensemble drama to warrant recognition, but the actors on the show not being household names the way other contenders are makes it difficult to see any more stars of the FX series getting in.

“The Morning Show” has the opposite effect, where pretty much every one of the Apple TV+ series’ Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series is someone with a lot of history with the TV Academy. For instance, Billy Crudup beat his “Succession” counterparts during the show’s first awards run, and Jon Hamm, a newcomer to the workplace soap, has both the continued momentum of his Emmy-winning “Mad Men” performance, and the boost of also being a Limited Series contender this year for his work leading “Fargo” Season 5.

So if “Shōgun” is the frontrunner, and “The Morning Show” is the category mainstay, what else even has a chance? Well, if voters rest on their laurels, it is likely that some of “The Crown” stars, especially Khalid Abdalla, will make the cut, as the Netflix series has won this category before. But because it is telling a multi-decade story, it has a revolving cast, so voters would need to have seen the final two seasons to consider this round of contenders specifically. Even though the show was eligible last season, star Jonathan Pryce still did not make it in.

Therefore, the other option would be new shows receiving some recognition, with someone like Benny Safdie getting a nomination for his performance in Showtime’s “The Curse,” a series he co-created, or Aaron Moten making the cut for his breakout performance in Prime Video action series “Fallout.”

Predicted Nominees:
Khalid Abdalla, “The Crown” (Netflix)
Tadanobu Asano, “Shōgun” (FX)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Mark Duplass, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Jon Hamm, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)
Takehiro Hira, “Shōgun” (FX)
Jonathan Pryce, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Contenders:
Nathan Lane, “The Gilded Age” (HBO)
Aaron Moten, “Fallout” (Prime Video)
Benny Safdie, “The Curse” (Showtime)

Also Consider This:
Jason Clarke, “Winning Time: Rise of the Lakers Dynasty” (HBO)
Daniel Dae Kim, “Avatar: The Last Airbender” (Netflix)
Wyatt Russell, “Monarch: Legacy of Monsters” (Apple TV+)

More Drama Category Predictions:
Outstanding Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series

View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.

Last Year’s Winner: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: “The Gilded Age,” the one HBO series most in awards contention, is much more female-focused than past drama Emmys juggernaut “Succession,” but star Nathan Lane is still around to help possibly bring the network a third straight win in this category.
Notable Ineligible Series: Matthew Macfadyen, Nicholas Braun, Alan Ruck, and Alexander Skarsgård, “Succession” (ended); F. Murray Abraham, Michael Imperioli, Theo James, and Will Sharpe, “The White Lotus: Sicily” (ended)

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