2025 Oscars Best Picture Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2025 Oscars Predictions:
Best Picture

Weekly Commentary (Updated Oct. 10, 2024): Steve McQueen’s “Blitz” opened the BFI London Film Festival and is off to the races with strong praise being shared for the Oscar winner’s World War II drama. Starring Saoirse Ronan and newcomer Elliott Heffernan, the large-scale epic will likely appeal to various branches of the Academy with solid performances and impressive technical merits.

As the Oscar race heats up, Hollywood is bracing for an intense, wide-open awards season. After its whirlwind tour through the Venice, Toronto, and New York Film Festivals, A24’s newly acquired historical epic “The Brutalist” has emerged as a potential heavyweight in this year’s Academy Awards lineup. Starring Adrien Brody in a career-redefining role as a Hungarian-born Jewish architect who survives the Holocaust and journeys to the U.S., the film screened in front of an influential audience at CAA on Sunday night. The room was filled with industry professionals, journalists, and Oscar winners like Cord Jefferson (“American Fiction”).

The film is undeniably an achievement and a marvel of epic storytelling, made all the more impressive because it was produced on a lean budget of just $10 million. Early buzz and reviews point to “The Brutalist” as a potential Oscar juggernaut, assuming A24 can effectively balance it with its other contenders — “Sing Sing” and “Queer” — and galvanize voters to embrace its hefty runtime.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.

The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2. The full rankings are below. All movie listings, titles, distributors, and credited producers are not final and are subject to change.

** denotes the film is not yet dated or can open in 2025.

Read: You can see all Academy Award predictions in all 23 categories on one page on the Variety Awards Circuit: Oscars.

And the Predicted Nominees Are

Next in Line

Other Contenders

Also In Contention

Eligible Titles (Best Picture)

** This list is incomplete and not yet finalized. Not all films have distribution or release dates. All are subject to change.

• “Alien: Romulus” (20th Century Studios)

• “All We Imagine as Light” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

• “Anora” (Neon)

• “The Apprentice” (Briarcliff Entertainment)

• “Babygirl” (A24)

• “Back to Black” (Focus Features)

• “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)

• “Better Man” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Between the Temples” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “The Bikeriders” (Focus Features)

• “Bird” (Mubi)

• “Blink” (National Geographic)

• “Blink Twice” (Amazon MGM)

• “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)

• “Bob Marley: One Love” (Paramount Pictures)

• “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)

• “The Brutalist” (A24)

• “Carville: Winning is Everything, Stupid!” (CNN Films)

• “Challengers” (Amazon MGM)

• “Civil War” (A24)

• “The Colors Within” (GKids)

• “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight Pictures)

• “Conclave” (Focus Features)

• “The Count of Monte Cristo” (Samuel Goldwyn Films)

• “Daddio” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “Daughters” (Netflix)

• “Day of the Fight” (Falling Forward Films)

• “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)

• “The Deliverance” (Netflix)

• “Despicable Me 4” (Illumination/Universal Pictures)

• “A Different Man” (A24)

• “Dìdi” (Focus Features)

• “Drive-Away Dolls” (Focus Features)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• “Elton John: Never Too Late” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)

• “The End” (Neon)

• “Evil Does Not Exist” (Sideshow)

• “Exhibiting Forgiveness” (Roadside Attractions)

• “Fancy Dance” (Apple Original Films)

• “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM)

• “Firebrand” (Roadside Attractions)

• “Flow” (Janus Films/Sideshow)

• “Frida” (Amazon MGM)

• “The Front Room” (A24)

• “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” (Warner Bros.)

• “Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Hard Truths” (Bleecker Street)

• “Here” (Sony Pictures)

• “Heretic” (A24)

• “His Three Daughters” (Netflix)

• “Hit Man” (Netflix)

• “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” (Warner Bros.)

• “I Am Celine Dion” (Amazon MGM)

• “I Saw the TV Glow” (A24)

• “I’m Still Here” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “The Idea of You” (Amazon MGM)

• “IF” (Paramount Pictures)

• “The Imaginary” (Netflix)

• “In the Summers” (Music Box Films)

• “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)

• “It Ends With Us” (Sony Pictures)

• “Janet Planet” (A24)

• “Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)

• “Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)

• “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)

• “Kneecap” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “The Last Showgirl” (Roadside Attractions)

• “Lee” (Roadside Attractions)

• “Longlegs” (Neon)

• “The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim” (Warner Bros.)

• “Los Frikis” (Wayward/Range Releasing)

• “Love Lies Bleeding” (A24)

• “Maria” (Netflix)

• “Megalopolis” (Lionsgate)

• “Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)

• “Misericordia” (Janus Films)

• “Moana 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• “Monkey Man” (Universal Pictures)

• “The Most Precious of Cargoes” (StudioCanal)

• “Mothers’ Instinct” (Neon)

• “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• “My Old Ass” (Amazon MGM)

• “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)

• “Nightbitch” (Searchlight Pictures)

• “Nosferatu” (Focus Features)

• “Oh, Canada” (Kino Lorber)

• “On Becoming a Guinea Fowl” (A24)

• “One Life” (Bleecker Street)

• “The Order” (Vertical Entertainment)

• “The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “Parthenope” (A24)

• “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)

• “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)

• “Queer” (A24)

• “A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)

• “The Remarkable Life of Ibelin” (Netflix)

• “Rez Ball” (Netflix)

• “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “Rumours” (Bleecker Street)

• “Santosh” (Metrograph Pictures)

• “Sasquatch Sunset” (Bleecker Street)

• “Saturday Night” (Sony Pictures)

• “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” (Neon)

• “September 5” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Shirley” (Netflix)

• “Sing Sing” (A24)

• “The Six Triple Eight” (Netflix)

• “Small Things Like These” (Lionsgate)

• “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Spellbound” (Netflix)

• “Stopmotion” (IFC/Shudder)

• “The Substance” (Mubi)

• “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.)

• “That Christmas” (Netflix)

• “Thelma” (Magnolia Pictures)

• “Transformers One” (Paramount Pictures)

• “Tuesday” (A24)

• “Twisters” (Universal Pictures)

• “Ultraman: Rising” (Netflix)

• “Unstoppable” (Amazon MGM)

• “Venom: The Last Dance” (Sony Pictures)

• “Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)

• “We Grown Now” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• “We Live in Time” (A24)

• “Wicked” (Universal Pictures)

• “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)

• “Wildcat” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)

• “Will & Harper” (Netflix)

• “Woman of the Hour” (Netflix)

• “Yintah” (Netflix)

• “Young Woman and the Sea” (Walt Disney Pictures)

More Information (Oscars: Best Picture)

2024 category winner: “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven and Christopher Nolan

2024-2025 Oscars Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)

• Eligibility period: Jan. 1, 2024 – Dec. 31, 2024

• General entry, best picture, RAISE submission deadline: Thursday, Nov. 14, 2024

• Governors Awards: Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024

• Preliminary voting begins Monday, Dec. 9, 2024, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Preliminary voting ends Friday, Dec. 13, 2024, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Shortlists Announcement: Tuesday, Dec. 17, 2024

• Eligibility period ends: Tuesday, Dec. 31, 2024

• Nominations voting begins Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT.

• Nominations voting ends Sunday, Jan. 12, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT.

• Oscar Nominations Announcement: Friday, Jan. 17, 2025

• Oscar Nominees Luncheon: Monday, Feb. 10, 2025

• Final voting begins Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2025, at 9 a.m. PT

• Final voting ends: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025, at 5 p.m. PT

• Scientific and Technical Awards: Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2025

• 97th Oscars: Sunday, March 2, 2025

Oscars Prediction Categories

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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