The investors in Anglo Pacific Group plc's (LON:APF) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 26% to UK£1.45 in the week following its full-year results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of UK£56m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 22% to hit UK£0.16 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Anglo Pacific Group's five analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be UK£54.9m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 58% to UK£0.25. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of UK£55.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.14 in 2020. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analysts do seem more bullish on earnings, given the very substantial lift in earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target was unchanged at UK£2.01, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Anglo Pacific Group analyst has a price target of UK£2.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£1.67. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 1.4% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 43% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.9% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Anglo Pacific Group is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Anglo Pacific Group's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Anglo Pacific Group's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Anglo Pacific Group analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Anglo Pacific Group has 4 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.
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