Yahoo News ‘What happens to Brexit?’ Andrew Sparrow answers readers’ questions
Readers have been asking Andrew Sparrow, who writes the Guardian’s politics live blog, about what could happen next. You can see some of their questions and his answers below. If you’d like to ask a question, you can do so by adding a comment here.
What happens to Brexit?
What happens to Brexit? Is it more or less likely it can be stopped/A50 withdrawn//PeoplesVote? ItsUnbelievable
If May loses tonight, my assessment is that a no-deal Brexit becomes even more likely. (See 11.08am.)
But if Boris Johnson were to become Tory leader (which is unlikely, because although he is popular with members, MPs distrust him, and there is no guarantee he would make it onto the final two shortlist), there are several MPs who have said they would no longer be happy to remain in the party.
The DUP would back a Johnson-led government in a confidence vote. But if eight or so Tories were so horrified by the idea that they were willing to abandon their party and vote against, then in those circumstances you can start to imagine the government losing a no-confidence vote and an election taking place.
How will a secret ballot affect the result?
Is this vote secret? If it is, do you think that will affect the result? Nathan Evans
Yes, more or less.
According to the Press Association, all cabinet ministers have publicly said that they will back Theresa May in the confidence vote.
Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will. It is a secret ballot and – perish the thought – Tory MPs have been known to lie about this.
Although when I say secret, I mean secret-ish. MPs vote in a committee room in the Commons. Officers from the 1922 Committee are present and there is nothing to stop MPs showing their ballot paper to colleagues to show that they have voted as they said they would. This does happen.
What happens if Theresa May wins tonight?
When May wins tonight, she will be safe for a year. The Tories have promised a meaningful vote, but have reneged on this already. They have also said that there is no technical requirement for a meaningful vote, as a deal has been made. So, what’s to stop her reneging again, and simply refusing to have the vote, once her position is safe for 12 months? M G
Under Conservative party rules, if Theresa May wins tonight, MPs cannot use the 48 letters ruse to trigger a no-confidence vote for another 12 months.
But:
A) She is still vulnerable to a vote of no confidence in the government. If she were to lose one of these (which seems unlikely in the foreseeable future, but by no means impossible, especially if the DUP were to flip), she would have to go. And …
B) Whatever the rules say, if a party leader loses the confidence of their colleagues, normally they do get forced out. If May were to do something her party found egregious, you could imagine the cabinet forcing her out.
Re the “meaningful vote”, you’re right. Now that the government has declared that a deal with the EU has been reached, the “meaningful vote” procedure won’t kick in until the government has lost a vote on the deal – and that could be delayed until late March.
But two ministers said in the Commons yesterday that, regardless of the letter of the law (the EU Withdrawal Act), they would abide by its spirit and hold the vote by 21 January. May could choose to break this promise, but politicians never particularly like doing that because it is embarrassing.
Is it possible for Labour to push for a no-confidence vote?
Is it now not possible for Labour to push for a no-confidence vote? Surely that would be “no confidence” in the government, rather than the leader of the Tory party? How does it usually work and what are the likely routes the opposition might take? Yes, I know we are probably in uncharted waters. N1cKed
It is easy for Labour to trigger a no-confidence debate. They just table a motion of no confidence, and by convention it has to be debated fairly soon if it is from the leader of the official opposition. Other opposition parties can table no-confidence motions, but they do not have to be debated.
What’s holding Labour back is not that this would be difficult to do; it is that the government would probably win (and Jeremy Corbyn would then be under pressure to actively back a second referendum, but that’s another issue).
It is a mistake to think that Tory MPs who would back a no-confidence motion in Theresa May as PM would back a no-confidence motion in the government. They won’t. They want a Tory government – just under a different leader.
Can parliament be dissolved and Jeremy Corbyn elected as a caretaker PM awaiting a general election?
Can Her Majesty dissolve this parliament and install Jeremy Corbyn as caretaker PM awaiting a general election, just as she did with the democratically-elected Whitlam government of Australia on Remembrance Day, 1975? wattlesong
No.
(I think the consensus now is that the removal of Whitlam in those circumstances was a mistake. But it is not to going to happen in the UK now.)
Has the ERG’s influence been weakened?
If Theresa May sees off this challenge would it be safe to say that the European Research Group’s (ERG) influence and potential have been greatly weakened? fripouille
Only up to a point. There will still be 50-odd ERG MPs all set to vote against her Brexit deal.
If one of the hard Brexiteers became Conservative party leader, could Labour win a vote of no confidence?
In the case that the Tories vote one of the hard Brexiteers as leader, what probability would you give to Labour winning a vote of no confidence? And what about in the alternative case that May survives? 4Danglier
If May survives, it will depend on whether she passes her Brexit deal, or whether we drift towards a no-deal Brexit. If her deal does go through, then the DUP has signalled it could pull the plug on the confidence and supply agreement. If the DUP and all the opposition parties vote against the Tories, the Tories lose.
With Boris Johnson as Tory leader pursuing a very hard Brexit, you imagine a handful of MPs quitting the party, and perhaps voting with Labour in a confidence motion. But Johnson is about the only likely leader who would split the party like that, and his chances of winning are probably overrated.
And we are only talking about a handful of MPs anyway. To vote against your own party in a confidence motion would be a very, very big deal.
Overall, Labour winning a no-confidence motion comes quite near the bottom of my list of likely Brexit eventualities.
Could a cross-party coalition of MPs form a national unity government?
If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross-party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a “national unity government” and take back control? theunknownknown
Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table.
Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen whom she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days.
If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election.
Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all.
If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here …
