‘Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom’ Opens to 40 Percent Less Than ‘The Marvels’

‘Twas the weekend before Christmas, and not much at the box office was stirring.

The addition of three new wide openings on December 25 (“The Color Purple”/Warner Bros., “Ferrari”/Neon, and “The Boys in the Boat”/Amazon MGM), plus the usual surge that starts on the holiday and lasts through January 1, will decidedly improve things. But at this point, this season looks to be disappointing.

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Compared to that, the specialized world, with the strongest lineup of December releases in recent memory, continues to show promise. Andrew Haigh’s “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight) is the most recent title to have a strong platform debut.

The lead up included four new wide studio titles, led by DC’s “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” (WB) at $28 million for three days. With Monday (for most films, the best gross for the four-day Christmas weekend) projected at $12 million, that gets to $40 million. Disney’s “The Marvels” opened to $46 million its first three days, ending at less than $90 million domestic. “Aquaman” will do better, but, similarly, these results spell trouble for its fantasy universe.

Before marketing, the film reportedly cost $205 million. It has a B Cinemascore, compared to A- for the first franchise entry in 2018. That film, also debuting the weekend ahead of Christmas, opened to $69 million (plus $3 million in earlier IMAX shows). That’s a huge drop.

It’s performing much better overseas (projected $80 million through Monday, with a surprising $30 million in China), so there remains hope it can produce better results. But the first title reached over $1.1 billion. That justified the expenditure far more than initial grosses.

It actually would have been a surprise had “Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom” been much better. There’s franchise fatigue, particularly among comic-based titles, the recent run of disinterest in DC generally, then tepid, late-arriving reviews (44 on Metacritic).

Luckily for Warners, they also have “Wonka,” the number two film for the weekend. The Timothée Chalamet-starring film, with its family appeal more likely to fare better during the week, dropped 55 percent with $17.7 million ($75 million so far). But it looks set to be the top Christmas release, and might even compete with “Aquaman” during the days ahead. “The Color Purple,” their third film, also looks strong ahead.

All this comes with the caveat that this is just a prelude, and without all films yet opened (the dust will settle after Tuesday, the first weekday after the holiday and normally telling). The other openers give clues to their future, with #3 “Migration,” at $12.3 million, the most promising.

Last year, Universal opened “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish,” also animated, on December 21 to $12.4 million, nearly identical, and without the competition of Christmas Eve. It ended up with $186 million domestic (and #2 Christmas release last year). It also had an A Cinemascore. So consider this a strong start.

Sony’s rom-com “Anyone but You” with Sydney Sweeney and Glen Powell managed $6.5 million for fourth. Its B+ Cinemascore might not be enough for it to thrive ahead, but it stands as counterprogramming. It also stands apart from most recent similar films with its R rating.

Number six is Sean Durkin’s wrestling-family drama “The Iron Claw” (A24), a rare initial wide release for the company for a non-genre release, and it did $5 million. It had an A- Cinemascore, which suggests good enough word of mouth to compete with both current acclaimed films and others that have older appeal. And with a $16 million budget, it has a very promising future.

“Salaar Part 1 — Ceasefire” ((Prathyangira), one of two Indian films in the Top Ten, grossed $5.5 million in only 750 theaters. Starring Telugu superstar Prabhas, it is joined by “Dunki” (Yash Raj), a Bollywood comedy at #10 as further proof of the draw of Indian films for domestic audiences.

That makes four titles from countries where English isn’t the first language in the Top Ten, with two from Japan also included. Hazao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids) is #7, passing $30 million, while “Godzilla Minus One” (Emick for Toho) is #8, $40 million.

The $33,000 PTA for “All of Us Strangers” puts it right with “American Fiction” (Amazon MGM) and “The Zone of Interest” (A24) last week, and with, again, Christmas Eve likely slightly impinging. With reported very positive initial audience reaction, and potential (along with the other two) significant awards attention ahead, it’s a positive start.

Michel Franco’s “Memory” (Ketchup), with Jessica Chastain and Peter Saarsgard, opened in two theaters for $36,000. Like all many platform titles, it was helped by cast appearances at some shows. “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics), with Anthony Hopkins, started in five theaters for $45,000.

Two significant specialized expansions, all likely to do even better starting Monday, showed good results. Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” (Searchlight) did $2.1 million in 800 theaters ($5 million through three weekends. Cord Jefferson’s “American Fiction” (Amazon MGM) jumped to 40 theaters, $418,000, over $10,000 PTA. Again, both good for the early going, more so since audiences for both are far more likely to go to theaters starting Monday.

The weekend totaled around $95 million. That’s disappointing. The race to $9 billion starts in earnest over the final seven days of the year, with new openings critical. Though this number has appeared unlikely (and if it comes will include live music, sports, theater, opera and other revenues not normally included as film box office), if about $250 million is grossed it could happen.

The Top 10

1. Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (WB) NEW – Cinemascore: B; Metacritic:44 ; Est. budget: $205 million

$28,100,000 in 3,706 theaters; PTA (per theater average): $7,582; Cumulative: $28,100,000

2. Wonka (WB) Week 2; Last weekend #1

$17,700,000 (-55%) in 4,213 (+10) theaters; PTA: $4,201; Cumulative: $75,203,000

3. Migration (Universal) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 58; Est. budget: $72 million

$12,310,000 in 3,761 theaters; PTA: $3,273; Cumulative: $12,310,000

4. Anyone but You (Sony) NEW – Cinemascore: B+; Metacritic: 54; Est. budget: $25 million

$6,460,000 in 3,055 theaters; PTA: $2,041; Cumulative: $6,460,000

5. Salaar Part 1 — Ceasefire (Prathyangira) NEW – Est. budget: $36 million

$5,481,000 in 750 theaters; PTA: $6,886; Cumulative: $5,481,000

6. The Iron Claw (A24) NEW – Cinemascore: A-; Metacritic: 74; Est. budget: $16 million

$5,060,000 in 2,774 theaters; PTA: $1,394; Cumulative: $5,060,000

7. The Boy and the Heron (GKids) Week 3; Last weekend #3

$3,154,000 (-43%) in 1,580 (-745) theaters; PTA: $1,996; Cumulative: $30,582,000

8. Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes (Lionsgate) Week 6; Last weekend #2; also on PVOD

$3,150,000 (-46%) in 2,509 (-782) theaters; PTA: $1,255; Cumulative: $153,475,000

9. Godzilla Minus One (Emick for Toho International) Week 4; Last weekend #4

$2,740,000 (-46%) in 1,985 (-637) theaters; PTA: $1,394; Cumulative: $40,358,000

10. Dunki (Yash Raj) NEW – Est. budget: $13 million

$2,713,000 in 686 theaters; PTA: $3,955; Cumulative: $3,590,000

Other specialized titles

Films (limited, expansions of limited, as well as awards-oriented releases) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded.

All of Us Strangers (Searchlight) NEW – Metacritic: 90; Festivals include: Telluride, New York 2023

$132,136 in 4 theaters; PTA: $33,034

Memory (Emick for Ketchup) NEW – Metacritic: 73; Festivals include: Venice, Toronto 2023

$36,500 in 2 theaters; PTA: $18,250

Freud’s Last Session (Sony Pictures Classics) NEW – Metacritic: 52; Festivals include: AFI 2023

$45,590 in 5 theaters; PTA: $9,118

American Fiction (Amazon MGM) Week 2

$418,000 in 40 (+33) theaters; PTA: $10,451; Cumulative: $475,000

The Zone of Interest (A24) Week 2

$89,931 in 6 (+2) theaters; PTA: $14,989; Cumulative: $300,232

Poor Things (Searchlight) Week 3

$2,110,000 in 800 (+717) theaters; PTA: $2,638; Cumulative: $5,044,000

Anselm (Sideshow/Janus) Week 3

$19,360 in 8 (+4) theaters; Cumulative: $111,185

Radical (Pantelion) Week 8

$19,375 in 42 (-57) theaters; Cumulative: $8,602,000

The Holdovers (Focus) Week 9; also on PVOD

$232,000 in 316 (-271) theaters; Cumulative: $17,723,000

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