Arsenal are now Premier League favourites

There are two ways to look at Arsenal after their 2-1 victory over Manchester City. The first is that Arsene Wenger deserves almost no credit for finally being the favourites for the title, and the second is that they are being rewarded for a stability that you won’t find anywhere else in the league. In truth. there’s merit in both those arguments, though the former does seem the most significant. They have more or less remained in aspic for the last decade, with only a slight if palpable improvement in the side, and are pouncing in an anomalous year, where everyone else is falling apart.

A look at the other sides demonstrates why things are being made so easy for Arsenal. Leicester City are their main competition, after all. Leicester have a small squad, and that squad is comprised of players who have almost no experience of a serious title challenge. It is vulnerable to the accumulation of injuries that it will surely collect over the next few months, and of not being up to a pressure they are unfamiliar with. Only if they recruit exceptionally well in the winter would they feel confident of maintaining this run for the title for the whole season. It’s not impossible, but it’s very unlikely, which gives Arsenal the advantage, with their larger squad, with players who have won the league elsewhere, if not at Arsenal.

Their nearest rivals, Manchester City, demonstrated why most people will now regard them as behind Arsenal for the title. They matched Arsenal for the first half, but wasted their best chance through Kevin De Bruyne, and fell behind just before half time. They then struggled to get their act together until the closing stages of the match, by which time they had two goals to make up. It’s emblematic of City’s struggles this season - a collection of excellent and very good players who are not desperate to do anything special. Their manager, Manuel Pellegrini, seems a decent if uninspiring man, but even he seems demob happy, ready for a payoff when Pep Guardiola arrives at the end of the year. The players do not currently appear interesting in giving him a special swansong season. Perhaps that will change if they sniff that they have a chance closer to May, but it seems that chance will pass long before then.

Chelsea, well, we know about Chelsea. They appeared to be so embittered by the presence of Jose Mourinho that they simply wouldn’t play for him anymore. Too many of them resented him, and too many of them are fatigued, either mentally, physically, or from simply being very old for professional athletes. Cesc Fabregas and Nemanja Matic seem exhausted, but so do John Terry, Diego Costa and others. Eden Hazard seems ready to try something else, as long as it wasn’t Mourinho at another club. They have Guus Hiddink now, last seen doing a worse job than Louis van Gaal for the Netherlands.

And Van Gaal is doing almost as bad a time at Manchester United. He has overseen a failure to qualify from his Champions League group, despite it being one of the easiest in the tournament. He has seen them drop out of the top four in the league, as injuries pile up, and players give up on him, or perhaps even the resentment gets out. In most polls, the fans want him out, which by his own standards mean he should leave the club. We can expect him to be gone by the start of 2016, the only decision being when Mourinho arrives. Surely the only delay is in absolutely making sure Guardiola has already made his choice. The only threat to Arsenal’s title challenge is if Mourinho is appointed swiftly, the injuries resolve themselves, and United provide the new manager with a central defender and striker. Oh, and that Wayne Rooney either improves or is replaced. It doesn’t seem a likely scenario, giving Arsenal yet more space to claim the title.

It’s hard to tell how much better Arsenal really are in these circumstances. Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez have taken on more responsibility, and Olivier Giroud is less profligate than in recent seasons, even if he still has a touch of the Forlans at times. They still lose daft games, though, and risked Champions League failure with two defeats in their opening group matches. They still have their Arsenal moments in the Premier League, too. The injury problems still persist. But there is a sense, if not overwhelming proof, that they have stepped up their quality at least a little.

If they can focus from now, and if they can add in the transfer window to make sure they can endure the build-up of coming fixtures, they and everyone else should regard them as favourites. Jurgen Klopp might have fancied his chances, also recognising that the Premier League was low on quality in this iteration, but his coaching skills haven’t been able to mitigate the worst weaknesses in the Liverpool squad. It is becoming clear that Arsenal have finally benefitted from their stability, and loyalty to Wenger, as those around them try to find their feet or plan for the future. Whether it is really justification for a decade of failure is open to question, but right now few at the club will care.