Australia heading for hottest October day in years as bushfire risk escalates

Eastern parts of Australia will experience their hottest October day in years on Thursday as forecasters warn temperatures could hit 16C above average in some areas as the risk of bushfires increases.

The Bureau of Meteorology says southern parts of South Australia, west and central parts of New South Wales and much of Victoria and Tasmania will see temperatures peak well above average on Thursday.

By Saturday, temperatures will drop, but this will see a rise in bushfire risk for parts of northern NSW and south-east Queensland. NSW has already seen more bushland burned this fire season than in the two previous seasons combined.

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Diana Eadie, a meteorologist at the bureau, said: “This is a period of the year where we see extremes and can still get cooler days with exceptionally warm outbreaks.

“But we have not had such a warm day for a number of years, and now we are also seeing elevated bushfire risk.”

Much of the heat, Eadie said, was being pulled into southern regions from the north of Australia, where temperatures had been unusually high earlier this week.

On Monday, Darwin airport’s thermometer recorded its second hottest daytime temperature on record at 38.2C, which was 0.7C short of the record set in 1982. The temperature record at that site goes back to 1941.

Areas predicted to see the highest temperatures above average were in south-east South Australia and north-west Victoria.

The bureau was not forecasting widespread record-breaking temperatures for Thursday, although Mount Gambier in South Australia could experience its hottest October day on record, with temperatures forecast to hit 35C. The city’s record is 33.3C set in 1977.

For Thursday, Melbourne could reach 32C, Hobart 27C and Canberra 31C. Sydney’s peak for temperatures will come on Friday, with 33C forecast. A predicted 36C in Adelaide would be its hottest October day in four years.

There was no strong signal for rain, outside of expected showers and storms as a cooler front moves through most of the south-east on Friday, moving through Sydney on Saturday.

Concerns are also increasing about falling dam levels in Greater Sydney. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, a NSW government briefing document estimates it will take one metre of rainfall to “break the current drought” when the annual average was just 850mm.

Inspector Ben Shepherd, of the NSW Rural Fire Service, said people should use the advance warning to discuss their survival plans “and to know what they will do if they are threatened”.

He said this fire season had already seen more than 500,000 hectares of bushland burned, which was more than the past two seasons combined.

More than 100 homes had been lost. Earlier this month an elderly couple died in their home in Coongbar, northern NSW, after a bushfire swept the area.

Shepherd said: “From Thursday we will start to see hot air moving in to NSW with westerly winds. That’s going to see broad areas of high fire danger.”

He said some areas would be subject to severe fire risk on Friday, heading into Saturday. High temperatures, low humidity and high winds were driving up the risks, and those conditions would head to the southern parts of the state on Friday and Saturday.

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In South Australia, total fire bans are expected in much of the state. Yvette Dowling, SA Country Fire Service state duty commander, said: “For those areas of the state with total fire bans, we are asking the community to cease any risky activities, such as angle grinding.”

In south-east Queensland, the community of Peregian Beach on the Sunshine Coast was again threatened by a bushfire early on Wednesday, which Queensland Fire and Emergency Services said was now under control, with firebombing taking place.

Adam Stevenson, the QFES acting deputy commissioner, said several regions would experience very high fire dangers on Friday, particularly in northern parts of the state.

By Saturday, south-east Queensland would also see “very high” fire danger, with areas bordering northern NSW reaching “severe” on Saturday. He advised vigilance and for the public to keep checking QFES and community messages.

“Our season started a little earlier than expected and we are certainly prepared for it to go on longer than expected, given the long range rainfall outlook from the bureau of meteorology, with a lack of rainfall across Queensland.”