The best result from the Czech elections would be chaos | Jakub Patočka

For a long time, the Czech Republic stood out as an exceptionally stable democracy among the post-communist European states. Of course there were the occasional embarrassments with the two presidents who succeeded the democratic revolutionary Václav Havel: first the notorious climate-change-denying, pen-stealing, corruption-pardoning Václav Klaus, and then the even more despicable Miloš Zeman, who is almost cartoon-like in his vile manners. But presidents have no significant power in the Czech Republic and, viewed from outside, Czech parliamentary politics looked stable, solidly pro-European and firmly democratic. Until now.

The legislative elections that begin today will almost certainly leave Andrej Babiš’ political movement ANO as the strongest party in parliament’s lower chamber. Babiš, the second-richest person in the country, owns the huge agro-corporation Agrofert, which essentially controls all the key features of Czech agriculture, as well as vast parts of the republic’s chemical industry. He is also one of its largest and most influential publishers.

Using his multiple powers, he has managed to position himself as the principal alternative to the mainstream parties, while at the same time operating as a part of the government. The Social Democratic party, which gained the most seats in the election four years ago, had little choice but to accept him as a junior partner, because they could not form a government with the discredited rightwing parties.

Since then, Babiš has been accused of using his political power to advance his businesses. According to Forbes, during his four years in government, the value of his property has more than doubled, from 40 to 88bn Czech crowns (£3bn). Many suspect Babiš’ political clout has enabled his firms to circumvent laws that are supposed to regulate them.

He is currently under investigation by the Czech police for allegedly misusing EU subsidies. In May the prime minister, Bohuslav Sobotka, sacked him from the government over allegations about his business dealings. But Babiš managed to put a positive spin on the crisis and emerged more popular than ever. Soon afterwards Sobotka resigned as the leader of the Social Democrats.

Babiš’ own support is concentrated among older and disillusioned voters. As with Trump in the US, his die-hard supporters repeat his claims that he’s the victim of foul propaganda from enemies afraid that he will strip them of their privileges. Yet others have been discouraged by the revelations. A book of investigative reporting by Zuzana Vlasatá and me, The Yellow Baron, has become a bestseller in the Czech Republic. It exposes Babiš as an extractive capitalist who has increased his wealth by hostile takeovers, systematically socialising costs, privatising the benefits, and using his media to cover up anything that might embarrass him. Most importantly, our book exposed how his business model milks the state and EU for subsidies.

Babiš’ reaction to the book says a lot about his attitude to the free press. He filed a libel suit against us, complained that our promotional tour was illegal political campaigning, and put pressure on Czech TV not to screen a documentary based on our book before the elections.

While the decline of Babiš’ support is good news, the bad news is where most of his former admirers end up. The far-right party of Direct Democracy, led by Tomio Okamura, a businessman with Japanese roots who fans hatred towards refugees, Muslims and the “rotten” establishment alike, has been surging in the polls.

Open racism has become a normal part of public discourse. Trust in democratic institutions and the European Union has been crumbling before our eyes. It is shocking how easily and quickly this has happened.

Many Czechs are going to the polls with grim fears for the future. A broad coalition of democratic parties is not likely to have enough votes to control parliament. Apart from the far right, communists and a peculiar Czech version of the Pirate party are expected to do well.

The best the country can realistically hope for is a kind of chaos. The worse, but very likely, possibility, is an emergence of an authoritarian regime managed by a ruthless oligarch supported by neo-fascists or whoever is willing to sell him their votes. Almost 30 years after the Velvet Revolution, democracy is in danger.

• Jakub Patočka is a Czech journalist and the editor of online daily Denik Referendum