Biden holds 4-point lead over Trump in Minnesota survey

Sarah Fortinsky

10 June 2024 at 2:50 pm·3-min read

President Biden holds a 4-point lead over former President Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up in Minnesota, according to a survey of likely voters in the state published Monday.

In the Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll — conducted June 3-5 — 45 percent of likely voters in Minnesota supported Biden, 41 percent supported Trump, 6 percent supported Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and 2 percent supported “someone else,” if the election were to be held today.

Minnesota has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since former President Nixon in 1972, but Trump has recently set his sights on the state. He nearly won Minnesota in 2016, when he fell 1.5 percentage points short of beating Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. In 2020, however, he lost the state to Biden by 7 percentage points.

“We’re going to win this state,” Trump said last month in a speech at the state GOP’s annual Lincoln Reagan Dinner in St. Paul.

“This November the people of Minnesota are going to tell Crooked Joe Biden — right? ‘The Apprentice’? ’You’re fired!’” Trump said in the speech, referencing his former reality television show and the catchphrase he used on it.

In the new poll, both candidates largely retained their supporters from 2020: Biden held on to 87 percent of his 2020 voters, with 1 percent supporting Trump, 5 percent supporting Kennedy and 2 percent supporting someone else; Trump kept 89 percent of his 2020 voters, with 2 percent now backing Biden and 4 percent backing Kennedy.

Independent respondents were split, with 35 percent supporting Biden, 37 percent supporting Trump and 13 percent supporting Kennedy.

In contrast to recent national polling, Biden appears to be performing better among younger voters surveyed in the poll, while Trump got support from older Americans. Among adults ages 18-34, Biden garnered 53 percent support, Trump got 35 percent and Kennedy got 7 percent. Among adults 65 and older, Trump led with 51 percent, Biden got 38 percent and Kennedy got 5 percent.

The poll found a significant enthusiasm gap between voters who said they plan on voting for one of the two candidates. Prospective Trump 2024 voters were two times as likely to say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting for their candidate, at 62 percent, as Biden 2024 voters, at 31 percent.

Biden voters in the survey overwhelmingly listed “protecting democracy” as the most influential issue in deciding how to vote, at 47 percent. The second most influential issue was climate change and the environment, which was selected by 15 percent of Biden voters.

Trump voters were split on “economy and jobs,” which 40 percent listed, and “immigration,” which 33 percent did.

In The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average, Biden narrowly leads Trump in Minnesota with 45.5 percent support compared to the former president’s 44.9 percent.

The Star Tribune/MPR News/KARE 11 poll included 800 registered voters in Minnesota who indicated they were likely to vote in the November election. The margin of error is 3.4 percentage points.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.

HuffPost UK
Trevor Phillips Destroys Nigel Farage With One Devastating Question
The Reform UK leader rejected the accusation that his party is a home for racists.
The Telegraph
Democrats creating path for Joe Biden to make ‘dignified’ exit
Democrats are laying the groundwork for Joe Biden to make a “dignified” exit from the presidential race.
The Telegraph
Labour vote share falls to lowest in more than two years
Labour’s vote share has fallen to its lowest level in more than two years ahead of the general election, new polling shows.
HuffPost UK
Rishi Sunak Left Squirming As He's Confronted With Ordinary People's Lives In Tory Britain
The prime minister had insisted life was "better" now than when the party came to power in 2010.
INSIDER
Biden's family is telling him to stay in the race even as calls to exit grow
The meeting was pre-planned but was a timely opportunity for Biden to discuss the future of his campaign with the most influential people in his life.
The Telegraph
Old, rich and living on benefits: welcome to the state pension capital of Britain
East Preston feels an unlikely stronghold of benefits dependency. The genteel village on the West Sussex coast might be the closest thing that Britain has to a moneyed pensioner utopia.
The Independent
Led by Donkeys interrupt Nigel Farage speech by lowering huge Putin banner
Nigel Farage was initially unaware that the Russian president was on the poster, with the words ‘I heart Nigel’ written below
Manchester Evening News
'My mortgage has doubled... the country's gone to pot': The Greater Manchester neighbourhood where people want change
'I was born and bred here... I've never known the place be as big of a dump as it is'
Associated Press
A private call of top Democrats fuels more insider anger about Biden's debate performance
A sense of concern is growing inside the top ranks of the Democratic Party that leaders of Joe Biden’s campaign and the Democratic National Committee are not taking seriously enough the impact of the president’s troubling debate performance earlier in the week. DNC Chairman Jaime Harrison and Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez held a Saturday afternoon call with dozens of committee members across the country, a group of some of the most influential members of the party.
Evening Standard
Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally ahead after first round of French voting
The far right party are in the lead after the first round, according to exit polls.
CNN
Russia wants to confront NATO but dares not fight it on the battlefield – so it’s waging a hybrid war instead
When someone tried – and failed – to burn down a bus garage in Prague earlier this month, the unsuccessful arson attack didn’t draw much attention. Until, that is, Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala revealed it was “very likely” that Moscow was behind it.
PA Media: UK News
Rishi Sunak: I’ll still be Prime Minister on Friday
The Conservative leader defended his party’s record in government against what he described as a ‘declinist narrative’.
The Telegraph
Marine Le Pen’s surge is a warning to Sir Keir Starmer
In the upper-echelons of the Labour Party, as they consider a UK run by them (and such is their confidence, the urinal-equipped chancellor’s loo is being reassessed ready for the first female occupant of the role), a name is whispered with a worried nod of the head and a concerned furrowing of the brow.
The Telegraph
France records highest turnout in 40 years during Macron’s gamble election
France is on course to record its largest election turnout in over four decades in a battle between the hard-Right and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition.
The Guardian
‘Disbelief’ as US-UK trade deals under threat after Britain axes negotiators
Business community decries ‘act of arson’ as one-seventh of trade posts within British consulates in the US are scrapped
Rolling Stone
In Memos to Quell Doubters, the Biden Campaign Touts Alarming Poll Results
Biden’s team emailed surveys showing most voters think he isn't fit to be president, is too old, and should be replaced on the ticket
CNN
A year ago, she drank battery acid to escape life under the Taliban. Today, she has a message for other Afghan girls
Arzo survived a suicide attempt but now faces a new threat that could send her family – and millions like them – back to Afghanistan and a life that has become so intolerable for women and girls that some would rather die.
PA Media: UK News
Reform UK candidate drops out and backs Tories amid racism row
Liam Booth-Isherwood announced he was dropping out of the race for Erewash and would instead be endorsing the Tory contender, Maggie Throup.
HuffPost
The GOP Faces A Unique Dilemma Ahead Of Trump’s Sentencing
Officials say they’re making contingency plans in case the former president is in jail when the GOP convention starts.
The Telegraph
Fears of ‘undue spiritual influence’ on voters as community leaders ‘highlight Islamic values’
Almost a decade ago, the mayor of Tower Hamlets was sensationally removed from office after an electoral court found him guilty of a string of “corrupt and illegal practices” including ballot rigging, bribery and buying votes.

Latest stories