‘Bit of a moment for Rahul Gandhi’: new dawn for India’s opposition, but where to now?

In the months building up to India’s election, many pundits had already written obituaries for the country’s beleaguered political opposition.

Over his decade in power, the prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) government have been accused of using the full might of the state against political opponents, with agencies harassing and jailing opposition leaders or intimidating them into switching sides.

Meanwhile, India’s only national opposition party, the Indian National Congress, was seen as disorganised, weak and lacking leadership. It flailed when not in power and in the last election won just 52 seats compared with the 303 won by the BJP.

But this week, for the first time in a decade, India’s opposition showed its teeth. As the results of the election were announced on Tuesday, the opposition parties – over 20 of which had formed a coalition in an attempt to oust Modi – far exceeded most expectations and exit poll predictions.

The coalition, united under the acronym INDIA, won 232 seats, taking more than 60 from the BJP and preventing Modi’s party from forming a majority government. “We fought as one,” said Rahul Gandhi, the best-known face of the Congress party, at a press conference on Tuesday.

Just a few months ago, the outlook for the INDIA bloc as a united force looked much less rosy. The Congress party alongside more than two dozen regional parties had all agreed to an alliance, but after a clash of egos, several high-profile opposition leaders dramatically departed to join Modi, and in many states the parties could not agree to seat-sharing deals or a single election narrative.

“Going into the election, there certainly wasn’t a level playing field for the opposition and they didn’t have a coherent or cohesive chemistry,” said Yamini Aiyar, the former president of the Centre for Policy Research.

But as the election unfolded over seven weeks, the INDIA bloc began to come into its own. Unlike in the 2019 election, the opposition wrested the political narrative from Modi with discussions about unemployment, inflation and the caste system. INDIA ultimately ended up making a significant dent in the BJP vote in two of India’s most politically significant states: Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.

Related: How voters turned against Narendra Modi in his party’s heartland

In Uttar Pradesh, it was the INDIA bloc alliance, led by Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi party, working closely alongside the Congress party led by Gandhi, that proved to be a winning formula against the BJP.

India’s largest and most politically important state with 80 parliamentary seats, Uttar Pradesh has been a BJP bastion for a decade. But as Yadav and Gandhi began collectively pushing a narrative that played on deep-rooted anger over chronic unemployment and fears over losing caste protections, they managed to win over swaths of communities in Uttar Pradesh, particularly people from lower-caste backgrounds who had previously voted BJP.

Promises to protect the constitution from being rewritten by the BJP proved particularly effective among Dalits – the lowest caste, previously known as untouchables – who feared losing their constitutional protections, and Gandhi repeatedly whipped out a dog-eared copy during his campaign speeches.

“They were very effective at harnessing the frustrations on the ground, such as jobs and price rises and fears that the BJP planned to rewrite the constitution ,” said Aiyar. “There was a groundswell of dissatisfaction with the complete and total dominance of the BJP in the public sphere and they were able to recognise that and run with it.”

INDIA bloc parties, many capitalising on anti-Modi sentiment, also flourished in other parts of the country. In West Bengal, Trinamool Congress, led by Mamata Banerjee, gained seven seats. In Tamil Nadu, the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, led by MK Stalin, put up such a strong fight that they achieved almost a clean sweep of seats and ensured the BJP did not win any, despite Modi investing vast resources in the southern state. The Congress-led alliance also dominated neighbouring Kerala.

Yet for many observers, the biggest story was the reversal of fortunes for the Congress party and the emergence of Gandhi – after a decade – as a legitimate political leader. Prior to Tuesday, the party had been facing existential questions about its future and a groundswell of malaise within its ranks, while Gandhi was described as a weak and reluctant leader.

Yet on Tuesday, Congress almost doubled its number of parliamentary seats to nearly 100 and managed to increase its vote share despite contesting far fewer seats. Gandhi won both the seats he was contesting by a landslide.

“Congress has really been in decline since 1994, so this result was a significant exception,” said Asim Ali, a political analyst. “This seems like a bit of a moment for Rahul Gandhi, finally, after 10 years. In this election, unlike in 2019, he has been able to communicate to people that he is here for the long haul and will struggle for them, even if he’s still nowhere near as popular as Modi.”

Analysts say the onus is now on Gandhi to capitalise on this resurgence and reform his creaking party. Already, his ideological leadership has pushed the party radically further to the left than in previous generations, when it was seen as a centrist, upper-caste party.

Many believe Gandhi will also take on the role of formal head of the INDIA alliance. The job of keeping it united will be a tricky one, and exactly how the coalition will take shape remains unclear; whether it will come together with a form of uniting document or simply be a temporary marriage of convenience to stand up to Modi in parliament.

Aiyar said a key test for the opposition would be to establish whether or not it was willing to play the long game. “This election has given us a very nuanced verdict: it’s not a complete defeat for Modi, nor is there complete acceptance of the opposition. But this result is very important for India’s democracy.”