‘Why take risks?’: Boris Johnson's team keep candidate on tight leash

The Boris Johnson submarine is starting to surface, according to his campaign team, after weeks beneath the radar dodging debates and refusing television interviews.

They claim a “media blitz” is about to start that will see Johnson become much more visible with four weeks to go until he potentially enters No 10 as prime minister.

On Monday night the BBC broadcast his first TV interview of his campaign, although many of his answers to Laura Kuenssberg were the same as those he gave to similar questions at his launch four weeks ago.

He will attend at least five campaign events in London and Surrey on Tuesday, including an afternoon tea, door-knocking and a speech to 200 members at a horticultural society. But will the general media be allowed to come along? It is not an open invitation.

Personal style

A late-night altercation between Tory leadership favourite, Boris Johnson, and his partner, Carrie Symonds have changed the dynamics of Johnson's campaign. He had been either invisible or deliberately sober to the point of dullness, when his usual primary draw to Tory members is a self-created sense of optimism and fun. Much is also made of his supposed broad appeal to the electorate, evidenced by two terms as London mayor.

In most political contests, Johnson’s character – he has lost more than one job for lying, and has a complex and opaque personal life – would be a big issue, but among the Tory faithful he seemingly receives a free pass. It remains to be seen what impact that late-night police visit will have on his chances. 

Brexit

He has promised to push for a new deal while insisting the UK will leave the EU come what may on 31 October, even if it involves no deal. While his hard Brexit supporters are adamant this is a cast-iron guarantee of leaving on that date, elsewhere Johnson has been somewhat less definitive. Asked about the date in a BBC TV debate, Johnson said only that it was 'eminently feasible'.

Taxation

His main pledge has been to raise the threshold for the 40% higher tax rate from £50,000 to £80,000, at a cost of almost £10bn a year, which would help about 3 million higher earners, a demographic with a fairly sizeable crossover into Tory members. Johnson’s camp insist it would be part of a wider – and so far unknown – package of tax changes.

Public spending

He has said relatively little, beyond promising a fairly small increase in schools funding, as well as talking about the need to roll out fast broadband across the country. Johnson has generally hinted he would loosen the purse strings, but given his prior fondness for big-ticket projects – London’s cancelled garden bridge, the mooted 'Boris island' airport – perhaps expect more of a focus on infrastructure projects than services.

Climate and environment

This is unlikely to be a big issue for Conservative party members, and Johnson has not said much on this beyond confirming his general support for the new government target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to a net zero by 2050.

Foreign policy

Also unlikely to be a big issue among Tory members, beyond vague platitudes on 'global Britain', it could be a weak spot for Johnson given his poor performance as foreign secretary. He was seen as something of a joke by diplomats – both UK and foreign – and is likely to face more questioning over his gaffe about the jailed British-Iranian woman Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe

Peter Walker Political correspondent

Johnson’s tactic throughout the contest so far has been to keep out of the spotlight, reducing the risk of slip-ups. Instead of submitting himself to questions from journalists, proxies such as Priti Patel and Liz Truss have been dispatched to make the case for his Brexit policy for him, preventing the embarrassment of being directly asked questions about his character and instances where he has fallen short of the truth.

The strategy is for the entire focus to be on his pledge to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, pitching him as tougher on this issue than Jeremy Hunt to the highly Eurosceptic Tory selectorate.

Related: The Guardian view on Boris Johnson: a question of character | Editorial

There will be something of a shift now towards Johnson appearing more in the public eye, with stage-managed events and photo opportunities, now that he needs to cement his lead with the 160,000 Conservative members who make the final choice.

However, the campaign’s tactics of keeping Johnson on a tight leash remain unchanged, especially since the Guardian’s revelation that the police were called to a loud late-night altercation between him and his partner, Carrie Symonds, last week. Police were called to the flat they share by concerned neighbours, but left after being reassured both individuals were safe.

A mysterious photograph of Johnson sitting at a garden table in the Sussex countryside next to his smiling girlfriend emerged on Monday, which his campaign team deny was set up and released by them. But so far, he has refused to comment on the incident itself, saying party members do not want to know about “that sort of thing”.

While the campaign is keen to address Hunt’s accusation that Johnson is a “bottler” afraid of being grilled by hostile journalists, there is an overriding desire to prevent further furores that could erode his commanding lead over the next four weeks.

Personal style

His style is notably technocratic, with few rhetorical flourishes and an emphasis on his consensual approach and long record as a minister, notably during more than five years as health secretary, a traditional graveyard of ministerial careers. Hunt’s attempts to talk up a backstory as an 'underestimated' entrepreneur can fall flat given he is also the son of an admiral and was head boy at Charterhouse. Overall, Hunt’s approach can seem uninspiring and hard to pin down in terms of core beliefs, hence the 'Theresa in trousers' nickname among some Tory MPs.

Brexit

He says a new deal with the EU is possible by 31 October and he would send a cross-party negotiating team to Brussels, including members of the DUP. He would countenance leaving the EU without a deal but is notably more wary than rival Boris Johnson.

Taxation

Has been fairly silent on this, beyond a proposal to cut corporation tax from 19% to 12.5%, which would cost an estimated £13bn a year. Even at 19%, the UK rate is well below European and global averages.

Public spending

Before the campaign began he called for a doubling of defence spending, but he has since pulled back slightly, saying only that it should increase. He has argued that cuts to social care budgets had gone too far.

Climate and environment

Hunt backs the 2050 target for zero net carbon emissions and has called for 'sensible tax incentives' to encourage green initiatives, but very little beyond this.

Foreign policy

A likely strength for him, as he has been seen as a solid foreign secretary, an impression burnished by taking over from the chaotic Johnson. This has been a key part of his pitch.

Peter Walker Political correspondent

One veteran Conservative strategist who has worked on several past leadership campaigns said Johnson’s low-profile strategy – advised unofficially by election guru Lynton Crosby – was the right one if he wanted to ensure he got to No 10.

“There is no perfect formula but as a rule of thumb, if you’re the frontrunner, you minimise the risks,” he said. “Why would you take risks if you are leading – in Boris’s case by the best part of two to one with the voters? The electorate of 160,000 are split mostly in favour of a no-deal Brexit so in this situation he needs to not drop the ball. Or as Tony Blair once described it, ‘take the Ming vase across the marble floor’.”

He said the only moment when Johnson might have to emerge more comprehensively was if polling told him he was obviously losing ground to Hunt with Tory members – but that stage had not yet been reached.

Johnson’s supporters are defensive about his keeping away from scrutiny and insist 16 hustings across the country with members constitutes a huge amount of openness, as well as an ITV head-to-head debate scheduled for next week. Eddie Hughes, a Conservative MP supporting Johnson for the leadership, said it was “too early for people to judge his level of engagement”, and it was clear that he would do set-piece interviews and debates as the contest went on.

But Hunt’s team have sensed weakness in this area, branding his opponent a “coward” over Johnson’s newfound camera-shyness. Their strategy is the exact opposite: trying to gain maximum exposure for their candidate in the hope that Conservative members will get the jitters about Johnson and see their man as a safer, more sensible alternative.

Steve Brine, a Conservative MP and one of Hunt’s campaign organisers, said it benefited the foreign secretary to debate alongside Johnson as much as possible.

“The first hustings event on the weekend was an eye-opener for many but I don’t think it was for many MPs,” he said. “That was Boris Johnson doing what he does, although even I was surprised he asked the interviewer how long was left. And it was Jeremy Hunt doing what he does, showing clearly why we say he’s a sharp, focused and match-fit candidate ready to step up into the top job next month.”

Hunt has trodden a careful line of refusing to criticise Johnson’s personal life while still managing to cast some aspersions on his character by hinting that his rival is not brave enough to answer questions. At the same time, some of his supporters are going further towards direct attacks on Johnson, with allies having told the Sunday Times that Johnson’s complicated personal life could be a security risk.

Ryan Shorthouse, of the Bright Blue thinktank and pressure group for liberal conservatism, said the race between the two men had inevitably become “a contest about character” as they had such different personalities, whereas there was less difference in their policies.

“Either the Tory party believes better and further negotiation with the EU is required, which will require a detail-orientated diplomat. Or the Tory party is convinced that Brexit can only be cracked through an election, which will require a colourful, charismatic campaigner.”

Johnson has stressed he does not want an election. But his chances of entering No 10 increase if the MPs and members think their leader will have to face Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in the not too distant future – and if he can demonstrate the discipline to get through a campaign without further gaffes and own goals.