Brexit Bulletin: The Big Brexit Theory

Good afternoon.

Theresa May didn’t want to get bogged down in Brexit when she went to Jodrell Bank Observatory to talk about her ambition to develop the use of artificial intelligence across the public sector. But the prime minister could not escape it for long. “No surprise from the BBC”, she sighed on hearing that their reporter had a Brexit-related query.  

The prime minister made clear her desire for a “deep and special partnership” post-Brexit with Brussels extended to science, indicating that she was ready to pay an “appropriate” amount to ensure the United Kingdom was able to “fully associate” with European science programmes like Euratom R&T and the successor to Horizon 2020.  

Such association would not come cheaply, as the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated in March that continued participation in projects like Horizon 2020, Erasmus and Creative Europe could run up a bill of around £2 billion.

That would strike many voters as a vast sum, despite Mrs May pledging at Lancaster House to end “the days of Britain making vast contributions to the European Union every year”.

But she seemed ready to argue about the value of continuing cross-European scientific collaboration: “Nothing is achieved in isolation and it is only through co-operation that advances are made".

As Mrs May considered how AI-rich the future could be, her Conservative colleagues are putting further thought in about it might herald for them. Tory modernisers like Ruth Davidson will be meeting tonight to mark the launch of a new Tory-leaning think tank, Onward, which will be managed by the prime minister’s former policy aide Will Tanner.

The party’s future prospects will inevitably be shaped by how smoothly they handle Brexit, so Mrs May will be grateful that Boris Johnson has called on Eurosceptics to give her the “time and space” to deliver.“I’m convinced that the prime minister will be true to her promises,” the Foreign Secretary told reporters while on his trip to Latin America.  

If talks go awry, officials will have to prepare fast for the ballooning prospect of Britain having to leave the EU without a deal. With that in mind, it is worth noting the Department for Transport has revealed that it is drawing up plans - available “from early 2019” - to park lorries on a lane of the M20 in the event of “serious disruption to cross-Channel transport”.

The “serious disruption” is not specified, but the coincidental timing shows that ministers are taking serious steps in Brexit contingency planning.