Local elections 2011: Five key battlegrounds

Here's five intriguing

ly poised council chambers for your inspection, as local elections across England offer a tough test for both coalition parties.

Local elections are famous for their individuality. This city has a "very nasty habit of going against the trend". That town "ignores the national picture". Local political history is nearly always far more important than what's going on in Westminster. And then there's the added complications of different ways of doing things — minority administrations here, coalitions there. England offers a hotch-potch patchwork of compromises and power-broking deals.

Despite everything, some of the closest single-tier councils of all offer an interesting snapshot of the agonising decisions in Westminster which could follow today's voting.

We've picked out five councils where the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, clinging on narrowly, are facing intense pressure — both from the rejuvenated Labour party and from each other. They're all different, but, depending on how the votes fall, will give us a picture of how the grassroots cope with the coalition government's first major electoral test.

<b>Poole</b>

Take Poole, for example, which on paper looks like one of the few single-tier councils where the Lib Dems could conceivably seize power from the Conservatives. The local Lib Dems were only seven seats behind, 16 seats to 23, after the last election. Surely this is a council where Clegg's party could get an unexpected boost?

Alas, no. The balance has shifted in the interim to 25 Tories and 17 Lib Dems. The emergence of a local right-leaning group, Poole People, is complicating the picture. And then there's the small Labour vote. Usually soft Labour voters here have backed the Lib Dems, but not this time. Local Lib Dems believe this has something to do with the national picture, funnily enough.

Worst of all, the Lib Dems have been concentrating on holding their current seats, rather than making any gains at all. They're targeting two wards, totalling five seats, giving themselves at least a chance of achieving the 22-seat victory goal. But it seems thoroughly unlikely. What should have been one of the councils where the Lib Dems were on the offensive just hasn't worked out that way on the ground.

<b>Derby</b>

As in Westminster, indecisive elections tend to produce rather awkward council coalitions. In Derby, the Conservatives have led a minority administration for the last year. With Labour on 17 seats and the Lib Dems not far behind on 15, either party could have propped them up when it came to crucial decisions like the government. In the end the Lib Dems agreed to reach an informal agreement, an arms-length approach approximating to the 'confidence and supply' option rejected by Clegg at the national level. Part of the deal is that the Lib Dems will get the mayoralty for the first time next year; there are other elements too, of course. These are the kind of political dealings which so alienate voters — but are so necessary.

Labour is hoping its decision to step away from power in the last 12 months will reap benefits. It may get up to 22 seats, as campaigners try to tie the local message of Tory cuts backed by the Lib Dems with the national one. Anyone who forecasts a Derby result is worth their weight in gold, locals say. It looks like the Lib Dems could consider supporting Labour if the latter fail to take control — but whether Labour will be interested in anything other than going it alone is another matter.

<b>Bedford</b>

This is one of four towns with elections for a directly elected mayor taking place today. These trump the council elections in terms of their importance, for it's the mayor who appoints the Cabinet — a bit like the US presidency. The Lib Dems' Dave Hodgson is the incumbent, but the local Conservatives are confident they can oust him this time round. No more schisms for them — they blame their failure last time round on internal divisions.

It's hard to predict the winner, with both sides admitting the race will be tight. Usually local elections are a mixture of national issues and local ones. But with the mayor, you have to take into account the personal standing of the incumbent too.

The numbers on the council do matter, even so. Mayoral decisions have to be approved by an overall majority. If they're defeated, the mayor must 'think again' before submitting his proposals, revised or not, to the council once more. This time he needs the backing of just a third of the vote — or 14 councillors. The last council was made up of 13 Lib Dems, nine Tories and six Labour.

The Tories don't seem especially confident of making much progress — instead it could be Labour who performs best. Let's wait and find out whether the national opposition party's arguments stand up in Bedford.

<b>Sheffield</b>

Nick Clegg is the MP for Sheffield Hallam, which is why it will be especially painful if the Lib Dems end their reign as the city's largest party. The council is currently in no overall control, with the Lib Dems on 41 seats and Labour just one seat behind. Over the last year Labour and the two Green councillors have kept the Lib Dems in power, although Labour abstained on the budget vote. "It's been a strange few months, really," one insider admits. In today's elections the Lib Dems are on the defensive. Only a third of the council is up for election and Labour is looking for gains in more seats.

Last year, Labour advanced their total by three or four. Can they do the same this year? You'd expect them to, especially given the enormous row about Sheffield Forgemasters and Lib Dem business secretary Vince Cable's refusal to assist the struggling firm. Labour campaigners have focused almost exclusively on the national picture. This feels like a city about to change hands.

<b>Birmingham</b>

Labour's leader on Birmingham city council has confidently predicted his party will emerge as the largest party after this year's elections. At present the Tories (45 seats) and Lib Dems (31 seats) are in coalition against Labour's 41 seats. Even if that does change — and a strong opposition campaign against Tory seats in the south of the city suggests it's certainly possible — the Tories and Lib Dems are expected to continue to remain in coalition — another example of the national and local pictures merging. Local Conservatives think Labour are being a bit optimistic, claiming their vote is holding up well.

There's a lot of local contexts here, though: Labour were in government through the 1990s when, the current administration claims, they went on a spending spree which left the city close to broke. In 2004 the current coalition formed. This year's elections are unlikely to shift their close alliance seven years on — but could prove a crucial stepping stone for a return to power for Labour in 2012.

Like the other four councils we're following on election night, Birmingham will pose a real test for the Conservatives and Lib Dems. It could be the aftermath of this year's elections, not the campaigning which preceded them, which proves most significant of all.