Communist Laos awaits new leaders, but same approach likely

By Martin Petty (Reuters) - Laos will unveil a new Communist Party lineup this week at a congress expected to usher in some leadership changes, but no shift in the authoritarian status quo in a country that has become one of Asia's quiet economic success stories. The Lao People's Revolutionary Party has ruled for four decades and will choose a party chief, politburo and central committee and approve economic targets for the landlocked Southeast Asian nation for the next five years. From a low base, Laos has enjoyed one of Asia's strongest growth rates, expanding at an average of 7.8 percent since 2011, driven by mining, hydropower and foreign investment, much from communist neighbour China. Media coverage of the congress has so far been limited to progress reports on development, including higher incomes, business growth and better infrastructure and healthcare access for a population of 6.8 million. Leadership candidates have not been revealed in a country known for secretive politics, but 79-year-old president and party chief Choummally Sayasone is expected to retire after a decade in charge. It is unclear who would succeed him as party chief, but analysts see Prime Minister Thongsing Thammavong and Vice President Bounnhang Vorachit among the most likely choices. Simon Creak, a Laos expert at the University of Melbourne, said there were mixed signals about the top spot, but Bounnhang's military background could give him the upper hand. "Up to now, all party general secretaries have been military men and the military is unlikely to cede its influence," he said. "Changes in personnel will most likely be incremental. In terms of policy, major political reform remains extremely unlikely." Laos has traditionally been in Vietnam's orbit and mirrors its political system. Vietnam's Communist Party will also hold a five-yearly congress this week. China's sway is growing as it courts Laos aggressively with loans and investment, particularly for infrastructure. In December, China and Laos started work on a $6.3-billion, 418-km (260-mile) railway, planned to reach speeds of up to 200 kph (124 mph) on some stretches. United States investment and influence is limited. Secretary of State John Kerry visits Laos on Monday. Later this year, Barack Obama will become the first U.S. president to visit the country for a summit Laos will host, as the chair of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). Creak said new leaders would balance ties between China and Vietnam and maintain a focus on growth. "The leadership has overseen incredible changes, especially in terms of resource-intensive development," he said. "This is likely to continue, whoever is in the top positions." (Reporting by Martin Petty in Hanoi; Editing by Simon Webb and Clarence Fernandez)