Conservatives facing West of England wipeout in latest YouGov seat-by-seat poll

A colour map of prediction election results in seats in Bristol and the wider West of England region. The map shows Bristol Central coloured Green, the rest of Bristol and seats around the city turning red for Labour and the more rural seats beyond all Lib Dem yellow.
-Credit: (Image: YouGov)

The Conservative Party is facing the possibility of losing all its seats in the West of England with Labour and the Lib Dems now favourites to win big in the region.

The second major YouGov MRP projection for each individual constituency now has Labour winning four of the five Conservative-held seats in the West of England region, and the Lib Dems winning the other - but only if voters who are against the Conservatives vote tactically in each constituency.

The predictions are from national polling and local projections and it is the second time YouGov has issued a seat-by-seat forecast - but the first time since the announcement that Nigel Farage had taken over the Reform UK party, and was standing for election himself. That has given Reform UK a boost in the polls across the country, and that could be the difference between the Tories winning or losing a number of seats in the West Country.

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What does the YouGov MRP projection say now?

There hasn’t been too much of a shift in projections for individual constituencies since the first YouGov MRP poll in early June, to this latest one in late June. But the small differences nationally of a drop in support for the Conservatives as some voters switch to Reform UK, and the strengthening of the Greens’ polling numbers nationally as the party is given more mainstream TV airtime during the campaign, is changing YouGov’s overall predictions.


The second YouGov MRP projection for seats in Bristol cements Labour’s hold on the city. In the seats Labour already hold: Bristol South, Bristol East and Bristol North West, as well as the new seat of Bristol North East, the MRP projection has Labour polling at more than 50 per cent of the vote, so will hold those seats comfortably.

The only place where that isn’t happening is Bristol Central, where YouGov’s predictions have swung fairly dramatically from Labour to Green. Back in late May, a YouGov predictor for Bristol Central put Labour on 42 per cent of the vote, and the Greens just behind on 38 per cent.

By early June, that had changed to have Green Party candidate Carla Denyer just ahead of Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire. Now, YouGov has Carla Denyer clearly out in front, with an estimated predicted polling result of 50 per cent for the Green Party and Labour on 37 per cent.

The two frontrunners to be the new Bristol Central MP at the 2024 General Election - left, Carla Denyer from the Green Party, and right, Thangam Debbonaire, from Labour
The two frontrunners to be the new Bristol Central MP at the 2024 General Election - left, Carla Denyer from the Green Party, and right, Thangam Debbonaire, from Labour -Credit:Bristol Post

It should be remembered that while YouGov’s MRP poll is considered to be one of the most sophisticated election prediction models, and does take into local factors, local election results, demographics and boundary changes, it does not contain specific polling within those individual constituencies.

It may not, also, account for factors outside of regular polling like, for example, the timing of the General Election in July is after the week earlier this month that thousands of students, who were preparing to vote in Bristol Central, went home and could well end up voting in their home constituencies instead.

Whether that is a factor that makes the Bristol Central contest closer than predicted will only be discovered in the early hours of Friday morning, but one change in the YouGov MRP poll from the previous ones predicted is that the suggested vote share for the Lib Dems in Bristol Central has dropped off a cliff, and they face finishing last on just two per cent of the vote.

Outside Bristol

As well as winning four of the five seats in Bristol, the YouGov MRP poll also has better news for Labour campaigners in the areas around the city.

In Filton & Bradley Stoke, Labour are predicted to be 49-27 ahead over the Conservatives - a much bigger margin now with the rise into third place of Reform UK. That prediction, like the others, also has other parties that are unlikely to win - the Lib Dems and Greens - polling fewer numbers as tactical voting is more widely expected.

In Thornbury and Yate, the contest is closer. The YouGov MRP poll has the Lib Dems just slightly out in front on 39 per cent, with the Conservatives on 31 per cent, Reform UK up to 15 per cent and Labour on 12 per cent.

And the YouGov MRP poll has three of the West Country’s senior Conservative figures predicted to lose their seats on Friday.

The closest fought contest is North East Somerset and Hanham, where Metro Mayor Dan Norris is trying to win the seat back for Labour from Conservative Jacob Rees Mogg. The latest polling has Labour on 41 per cent, just six points ahead of the Conservatives on 35 per cent.

Jacob Rees Mogg, left, and Dan Norris
Jacob Rees Mogg, left, and Dan Norris -Credit:Bristol Live

Reform UK have leapt into third place there on 11 per cent, and the Lib Dems - who narrowly finished third in 2019 - are right down on just eight per cent, as Lib Dem voters are predicted to tactically switch to Labour.

In North Somerset, long-standing Conservative MP Liam Fox is on 30 per cent in the predicted poll, with Labour on 40 per cent. Again, Reform UK have jumped into third on 16 per cent, with the Lib Dems back in fourth with nine per cent.

And Weston MP John Penrose is also predicted to lose his seat with a similar polling prediction there forecasting a win for Labour.

It means, overall, Labour are predicted to win eight seats in the General Election on Thursday in the West of England, the Lib Dems are predicted to win two, including Bath, and two more further south into North East Somerset, and the Greens the one in Bristol Central.

One factor the YouGov MRP poll does show is the influence of tactical voting. YouGov is suggesting tactical voting could swing seats around Bristol, most notably towards Labour in North East Somerset, North Somerset and Filton, and towards the Lib Dems in Thornbury and Yate, but at the same time, the upswing in support for Reform UK could damage the Conservatives too. In five of the seats in the West of England, the combined predicted vote for the Conservatives and Reform is predicted to be enough to win the seat outright.