Corruption is now biggest threat to Iraq after defeat of IS, warns British envoy

Corruption has become the biggest threat to the future stability of Iraq following the defeat of Islamic State, Britain’s ambassador in Baghdad has warned.

Jon Wilks said that although there were “remnants” of IS still present, the country was “settling down ahead of expectations” and starting to recover from decades of war and insurgent attacks.

But he warned that corruption — which this month sparked violent protests in Iraq’s second city Basra — still posed a significant risk because of the negative effect that it had on business investment and public confidence.

Mr Wilks added that rapid population growth, with the number expected to double in Iraq by 2050, also meant that the government in Baghdad had “not got a lot of time to get this right”.

His comments came in an interview with the Standard during a visit by this newspaper to Iraq to examine educational reform and integration programmes run by the British Council. The aim of these initiatives is to raise school achievement, reduce conflict, and freeze-out extremism to create the foundations on which Iraq’s economy, and the prosperity of its people, can advance.

Mr Wilks said that he was “hopeful” that these efforts, combined with the support of the World Bank and investment from British business, could succeed, but that action to eliminate corruption was essential.

“It’s building pathways through corruption. These are stones that we are placing through the swamp. Eventually it will be paved. Social scientists and stabilisation experts say that a country takes on average 30 years to recover from civil war and major conflict. The country is settling down ahead of expectations.

“Particularly in Baghdad, the capital is pretty secure and that will affect the politics and business culture across the country. The biggest challenge now is corruption, rather than security. It’s about enabling the government and creating space for the private sector to operate within the rule of law and avoid corruption, waste and inefficiency.”

On the lingering threat posed by IS, which he referred to as Daesh, Mr Wilks said: “Daesh no longer holds territory in Iraq, but there are remnants left.

“The solution now to Daesh is not primarily military, it’s this stabilisation work, political and economic, as well as the return of displaced people. That’s our task now.”

Mr Wilks also warned about the impact of population growth, saying that Iraq’s government would have to use its oil wealth and other assets to cope effectively, at the same time as bringing an end to sectarian divisions.

“The issue, which hasn’t been solved since the creation of Iraq one hundred years ago, is a true reconciliation between the peoples of Iraq such that Iraqi national identity allows everyone to agree on the rules.

“The other big thing is demographics. There are now 40 million [people in Iraq] increasing by over a million a year. With that trajectory, by 2050 this is going to be a country of 80 to 90 million people. It’s going to have to be very careful how it manages its resources. The message to the government is you haven’t got a lot of time to get this right.”