Yahoo News ‘Dune 2’ Aims for Blockbuster Glory: How a Strike Delay, Imax and ‘Oppenheimer’ Success Can Boost Denis Villeneuve’s Sequel
Back in August 2023, as two labor strikes were roiling Hollywood and preventing stars from promoting blockbusters, Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures decided to postpone the release of “Dune: Part Two.” The studios feared that without Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya on the press circuit, the big-budget science fiction sequel wouldn’t live up to its box office potential on its initial November date.
“My first thought was ‘Oh, crap,'” remembers Chris Randleman, chief revenue officer of the Texas-based cinema chain Flix Brewhouse.
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Like many theater operators, Randleman was devastated by the delay. Already, Christmastime was lacking a behemoth like a “Star Wars” or “Avatar” sequel, and there was hope “Dune: Part Two” — scheduled for Nov. 3 — would offset middling attendance around the holidays.
But even though a common refrain in the movie business has been that “Dune 2” can’t come soon enough, the fact is that it may be even better positioned on its new March 1 release date. By escaping November and moving to spring, the “Dune” sequel is poised to be the first major movie of 2024. Analysts believe it’ll benefit from a perfect (desert) storm: pent-up demand for a blockbuster, a healthy dose of star power — Austin Butler and Florence Pugh join the already buzzy cast — and a renewed appreciation for Imax. Cinemas have been collecting dust this year, as evidenced by last December’s “Wonka” remaining in the top five for ten (!) consecutive weekends. As a result, the domestic box office is down 15% year to date, according to Comscore.
“We couldn’t be more excited now that it’s in March,” Randleman says. “We need it.”
Based on presales and early tracking, “Dune: Part Two” will deliver a much-needed box office jolt. The sci-fi epic is expected to collect at least $60 million to $80 million in its domestic debut. It would be the first movie to open above $50 million since last October’s Blumhouse thriller “Five Nights at Freddy’s.” Some are bullish that ticket sales for “Dune 2” could even approach the $90 million mark in its first weekend, not that the film needs to hit those heights to be considered a success.
The first movie, starring Chalamet, Oscar Isaac, Zendaya and Jason Momoa, opened to $41 million while appearing simultaneously on HBO Max. It cost $165 million and ended its box office run with $402 million, one of the only financial wins from the studio’s COVID-era hybrid release strategy. The sequel reportedly cost $190 million, so analysts believe it would be a commercial winner if it replicates the results of the original “Dune.”
“Assuming that audiences and critics like it, this is going to have an outstanding opening,” says David A. Gross of movie consulting firm Franchise Entertainment Research. “The first film was slowed by the pandemic and simultaneous availability on streaming.”
In the time since moviegoers first ventured to the desert planet of Arrakis, Chalamet has only cemented his star power with Warner’s fantasy musical “Wonka.” It just crossed the $600 million mark globally, thanks in no small part to the actor who dons the top hat.
“Part Two” will also have an outsized presence on premium large formats like Imax and Dolby, which cost more than the average movie ticket. With “Part One,” 50% of domestic revenue came from those screens. The sequel will be released in the Imax 70mm format in just 12 venues worldwide, a factor that’s sure to excite cinephiles in the wake of “Oppenheimer.”
“Denis Villeneuve is on the Mount Rushmore of film directors — along with contemporary Christopher Nolan — [whose] cinematic vision is tailor-made for the multiplex,” says senior Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian. “He’s a filmmaker [where] the format becomes as important as the movies themselves.”
Reception and word of mouth will factor into ticket sales. However, Villeneuve has proven that he can adapt Frank Herbert’s notoriously dense 1965 novel. In addition to box office riches, the first film won six Oscars and was nominated for best picture.
With any sequel or franchise, there’s a chance the follow-up could struggle to expand its fanbase. “Dune: Part One” ends at the halfway point of Herbert’s lengthy book — with Chalamet’s messianic Paul Atreides on the run and seeking safety in the desert after powerful royals betray his family. Can audiences see the second without watching the first? Will people who skipped the original feel compelled to go back and watch it before the new installment?
“Sci-fi can be tricky to make appealing outside of its core demographic. [But] word-of-mouth from the first will help to grow the audience,” predicts Shawn Robbins, the chief analyst of Boxoffice Pro. “Timothee Chalamet and Zendaya have only gotten more popular, which could bring in younger people.”
A potential downside to the new release date? Auditoriums have been mostly empty for weeks. That could be a problem because an effective promotional tactic is showcasing trailers before a movie. Since audiences haven’t been going to their local multiplex in January or February, they haven’t been exposed to teasers for “Part Two.” Of course, the studio is heavily promoting the film elsewhere, including airing prime spots during recent NFL games.
“The marketing will be exhaustive, even without strong theater attendance leading up to its opening,” says Gross. “The campaign isn’t going to miss a thing.”
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