Eurovision 2024 and the Brexit effect - has leaving the EU ruined our chances forever?

Eurovision 2024 is beginning its build-up to the nail-biting weekend finale. Never mind the show-stopping performances, it all comes down to the climactic section when first the jury voters are added up, only for the scoreboard to be totally rearranged by the addition of the public votes that can change everything.

Thirty-seven entries are competing in this 64th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest in Sweden and 26 of those will be going all-out to win in the Grand Final. These include the UK, one of the Big Five nations that make the biggest financial contribution to the event.

Olly Alexander, lead singer of Years And Years, has been chosen as the UK's representative with his dance number Dizzy, performed with rotating cameras to create a mind-bending piece of musical mesmerism. Fans think it stands a good chance of being on the better side of the board but with the UK currently pegged as 50/1 outsiders by bookies, Alexander certainly has his work cut out for him.

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So has Brexit really affected our chances and relegated us to be the forever outsiders? Statistician Charlie Mullan has delved into the UK's Eurovision history since the inaugural contest in Switzerland in 1956. He said: "When the UK voted to withdraw from the European Union, many pundits wondered whether this would have an impact on Eurovision voting. The answer is: not really.

"The UK's decline in Eurovision had started long before the referendum on June 23, 2016. In the six years since Brexit, the UK has received a total of 428 votes (not including televotes), 194 more than in the six contests before the referendum. Four countries - Albania, Israel and fellow Big Five countries France and Germany have given the UK 18 points each in those six years since the historic vote - the most of any of the countries.

"Andorra, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Luxembourg, Slovakia and Turkey have not given the UK a point since Brexit but they have not had a chance to because they have not participated. Belarus and Russia each have had three opportunities to award the UK points, but they failed to do so. However, it must be noted that both those countries are not participating this year."

He added: "As the UK has discovered over the years, it often doesn't matter how good their songs might be, they just won't get the votes needed to be successful.

"Political voting plays a massive role in the Eurovision Song Contest and for whatever reason, the UK struggles to win friends and votes across Europe. Ireland's jury has been the most generous towards the UK with 205 total points given over the years, with Austria second. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the jury from Belarus has only given the UK six points, one fewer than Montenegro, before the televoting kicks in."

So who will get the UK's votes this year?

One of the UK's favourite countries over the last 10 years has been Sweden, says Charlie. There has always been a strong connection between the two countries throughout the history of the contest.

The UK jury has given more points to Sweden (222) than any other nation, although the Scandinavian country has only sent 145 points in the opposite direction. In the last eight contests, Sweden has been awarded maximum points from the UK three times, including in the last two competitions.

Charlie points out: "However, it's been a while since Sweden returned the favour - the last time they gave the UK 12 points was back in 1997, which coincidentally was also the last time the UK won. Australia, who joined the competition in 2015, has also fared well with the UK, receiving three scores of 10. These trends are expected to continue this year."

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