Evening Standard comment: It isn’t Brexit week — but it’s still chaotic

This was the week we were supposed to be leaving the EU. Instead, we continue the country’s headlong rush into the unknown. By Friday we may have seen: a huge rebellion by Brexiteer ministers, resignations from their Remainer colleagues, Parliament seizing control of the EU negotiations, and — oh — a prime ministerial resignation.

Let us take each in turn. The first — the Brexiteer rebellion — is the least anticipated and potentially the most dangerous. Last Thursday, the EU agreed to extend the deadline for Brexit from March 29 to, at minimum, April 12. It looks like the law here in Britain urgently needs to be changed, because the actual date is written into the statute — although some in government hope not, as (ironically) EU law trumps ours. Technically, the law here is easily changed via something called a statutory instrument — but politically, that is very tough, because it requires a vote in Parliament. When a week ago the PM asked MPs to support seeking a delay from Brussels, 190 Tory MPs voted against — including eight members of the Cabinet, half the whips’ office and more than two dozen ministers.

This week, Downing Street is likely to ask them all to vote again to put that extension of Brexit into law. Many will refuse. Unless Theresa May is prepared to see a third of her Government resign, she will have to grant a free vote — and then rely on Jeremy Corbyn and Labour MPs to vote with her and avoid a no-deal catastrophe on Friday. It adds to the second challenge this week: the potential resignations of moderate ministers.

We know that last week 13 of them, including Cabinet heavyweights like Amber Rudd, David Gauke and Greg Clark, abstained when the Government tried to whip against taking no-deal off the table. Later this week, Downing Street faces a similar dilemma over whether to whip against indicative motions for Brexit outcomes, like remaining in the customs union, which are not (yet) Government policy. They say they are upholding the Tory manifesto. But that’s the disastrous document that also committed them to removing free school meals and a social care “death tax” — both now abandoned. If Mrs May does attempt to force ministers to vote against softer Brexit options, there could be many resignations by the middle of the week.

Rebellion

Those options will only be on the order paper if another rebellion — the third of the week — succeeds tonight. This is the cross-party effort by Messrs Letwin, Boles, Benn and Yvette Cooper to seize control of the Commons timetable and then hold indicative votes on the way forward on Wednesday. We will find out today whether the Government will try to spike their guns by holding its own indicative votes. Frankly, it’s hard to see what these will achieve. If Parliament votes for a customs union and, perhaps, staying in the single market, it is naive to assume Mrs May will become its champion in EU negotiations. It shreds all her red lines. It would also cause a mass resignation of Brexiteers, and their fellow travellers, from her front bench, a “strike” from half her MPs — and, quite probably, a vote of no confidence in her Government. There’s also doubt about whether the device of rewriting the political agreement with the EU will be worth much once we’ve left. Over the following years of negotiation, it can be torn up — and would be were any hard Brexiteer to become Tory leader.

That brings us to the final question of the week: will Mrs May survive? At Chequers on Sunday , apparently, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Iain Duncan Smith told her she must go. Those there say she didn’t react, and the meeting, like so many she chairs, ended without conclusion. Talk of caretaker PMs is for the birds. Too many people want the crown to let anyone else into the palace first. Announcing her resignation looks like the only chance — albeit slim — that she has of getting a majority for her deal. But if she fails to get a majority, she also looks finished. The incentive remains for hard Brexiteers to hold tight, confident they can win the coming contest and deliver the “clean break” from the EU they seek. Boris Johnson compares himself to Moses today, as he seeks to lead us to the promised land of Brexit. With a week like this, his party had better get ready for many years in the wilderness.