Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s Updated Oscar Projections Post-Toronto Film Fest

PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage Scott Feinberg, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.

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Best Picture

Oppenheimer (Universal)
Barbie (Warner Bros.)
Poor Things (Searchlight)
Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)
The Zone of Interest (A24)
Past Lives (A24)
American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
Nyad (Netflix)
The Holdovers (Focus)

Major Threats
All of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
Dream Scenario (A24)
Origin (Neon)
Air (Amazon/MGM)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)

Rustin (Netflix)
Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
May December (Netflix)
The Taste of Things (IFC)
Dumb Money (Sony)
Fair Play (Netflix)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
The Creator (Disney)
Ferrari (Neon)
The Iron Claw (A24)
The Killer (Netflix)
Maestro (Netflix)
Napoleon (Apple/Sony)
Priscilla (A24)

Best Director

Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Major Threats
Celine Song (Past Lives)
Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers)
Ava DuVernay (Origin)
Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
Kristoffer Borgli (Dream Scenario)

Jimmy Chin & Chai Vasarhelyi (Nyad)
Emerald Fennell (Saltburn)
Ben Affleck (Air) — podcast
Joaquim Dos Santos, Kemp Powers & Justin K. Thompson (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse)
Chloe Domont (Fair Play)
Anh Hung Tran (The Taste of Things)
George C. Wolfe (Rustin)
Craig Gillespie (Dumb Money)

Can’t Yet Call
Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Sofia Coppola (Priscilla)
Garth Davis (Foe)
Sean Durkin (The Iron Claw)
Gareth Edwards (The Creator)
David Fincher (The Killer)
Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Roger Ross Williams (Cassandro) — podcast

Best Actor

Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast

Major Threats
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
Matt Damon (Air)
Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Christian Friedel (The Zone of Interest)

Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play)
Teo Yoo (Past Lives)
Kôji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Benoît Magimel (The Taste of Things)
Paul Dano (Dumb Money)
Taron Egerton (Tetris) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Gael García Bernal (Cassandro)
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Adam Driver (Ferrari)
Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
Michael Fassbender (The Killer)
Paul Mescal (Foe)
Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon)
John David Washington (The Creator)

Best Actress

Annette Bening (Nyad)
Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Major Threats
Greta Lee (Past Lives)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
Phoebe Dynevor (Fair Play)
Leonie Benesch (The Teacher’s Lounge)

Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Juliette Binoche (The Taste of Things)
Jodie Comer (The Bikeriders) — podcast
Eve Hewson (Flora and Son)

Can’t Yet Call
Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
Jessica Chastain (Mother’s Instinct) — podcast
Trace Lysette (Monica)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
Saoirse Ronan (Foe) — podcast
Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One)

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Major Threats
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
Charles Melton (May December)
John Magaro (Past Lives)
Matt Damon (Oppenheimer)
Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
Chris Messina (Air)

Eddie Marsan (Fair Play)
Rhys Ifans (Nyad)
Jon Bernthal (Origin)
Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)
Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)
Jacob Elordi (Saltburn)
Richard E. Grant (Saltburn) — podcast

Can’t Yet Call
Colman Domingo (The Color Purple)
Corey Hawkins (The Color Purple) — podcast
Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
Tahar Rahim (Napoleon)
Jeremy Allen White (The Iron Claw)

Best Supporting Actress

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
Julianne Moore (May December)
Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast

Major Threats
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Viola Davis (Air)
Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
America Ferrera (Barbie)

Florence Pugh (Oppenheimer) — podcast
Alison Oliver (Saltburn)
Rhea Perlman (Barbie)
Niecy Nash-Betts (Origin)
Julianne Nicholson (Dream Scenario)
Dylan Gelulua (Dream Scenario)

Can’t Yet Call
Halle Bailey (The Color Purple)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Patricia Clarkson (Monica) — podcast
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
H.E.R. (The Color Purple) — podcast
Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
Lily James (The Iron Claw) — podcast
Vanessa Kirby (Napoleon)
Tilda Swinton (The Killer)
Maura Tierney (The Iron Claw)
Shailene Woodley (Ferrari)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)

Major Threats
All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)

Nyad (Julia Cox)
Dumb Money (Rebecca Angelo & Lauren Schuker Blum)
The Bikeriders (Jeff Nichols)

Can’t Yet Call
The Color Purple (Marcus Gardley)
Ferrari (Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin & Brock Yates)
Foe (Garth Davis & Iain Reid)
The Killer (Alexis Nolent & Kevin Walker)
Priscilla (Sofia Coppola)

Best Original Screenplay

Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
Past Lives (Celine Song)
The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
Dream Scenario (Kristoffer Borgli)

Major Threats
The Teacher’s Lounge (İlker Çatak & Johannes Duncker)
Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
Fair Play (Chloe Domont)
Air (Alex Convery)

May December (Sam Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
Flora and Son (John Carney)

Can’t Yet Call
Cassandro (David Teague & Roger Ross Williams) — podcast (Williams)
The Creator (Gareth Edwards & Chris Weitz)
The Iron Claw (Sean Durkin)
Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
Monica (Andrea Pallaoro & Orlando Tirado)
Napoleon (David Scarpa)

Best Documentary Feature

Kokomo City (Magnolia)
The Pigeon Tunnel (Apple)
The Deepest Breath (Netflix)
The Eternal Memory (MTV)
The Mission (Nat Geo)

Major Threats
Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
Still (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
BS High (HBO) — podcast (Travon Free)

Every Body (Focus)
King Coal (still seeking U.S. distribution)
The League (Magnolia)

Can’t Yet Call
20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
aka Mr. Chow (still seeking U.S. distribution)
American Symphony (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Anselm (Sideshow/Janus)
Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
Black Ice (Lionsgate)
Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
A Compassionate Spy (Magnolia)
Copa 71 (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Defiant (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Zeitgeist Films/Kino Lorber)
The Disappearance of Shere Hite (IFC)
Hollywoodgate (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Lakota Nation vs. United States (IFC)
Little Richard: I Am Everything (Magnolia)
Menus-Plaisirs Les Troisgros (Zipporah)
Orlando, My Political Biography (Sideshow/Janus)
Periodical (MSNBC)
Silver Dollar Road (Amazon)
To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
While We Watched (PBS)
Your Fat Friend (still seeking distribution)

Best Animated Feature

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Nimona (Netflix)

Major Threats
The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)

Can’t Yet Call
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Leo (Netflix)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Wish (Disney)

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