Forget our troubles; the Middle East is where the real change is

It’s that time of year when the weeks blend into one another as the days get shorter and the nights get longer. The long-running Brexit soap opera continues with its predictable twists and turns, while this morning’s batting collapse in the Ashes after yesterday’s promising start has its ring of familiarity. Even the arrival of snowfalls was followed by the usual pattern of a public-transport melt-down, mass closure of schools and the perpetual query of whether, for once, Bing Crosby’s promise of a white Christmas might come true.

Needless to say, the real action in the world is happening elsewhere. As the nation waits to see just how similar the post-Brexit deal will be to the one we already have, a major reconfiguration of large parts of the Middle East is under way. Aligned interests between Russia, Turkey and Iran have produced a blueprint for Syria whose significance lies as much in what will happen in the war-torn country as it does for how presidents Putin, Erdogan and Rouhani will co-operate and collaborate both on Syria and elsewhere.

Running in parallel is the US, which sits at the centre of a remarkable new web that ties Israel and Saudi Arabia together. Despite being a furious critic of Saudi Arabia before being elected, Donald Trump has become almost evangelical in his support for the regime and for the ambitious crown prince, Mohammad bin Salman. A visit to Riyadh in May was trumpeted by both sides as a strong endorsement of US support for Saudi, underscored by Jared Kushner being dispatched to spend long nights in discussion with the crown prince. “They know exactly what they are doing,” Trump tweeted, as Saudi security forces started rounding up members of the ruling elite last month.

Trump’s decision to recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel has marked a decisive intervention in the thorny politics of the Middle East under the presidency of a man who claims to be interested only in putting US interests first. As Tom Fletcher, the former British ambassador to Beirut, put it, “A White House that cared about the security of the Middle East would be trying to put out existing fires, not start new ones.”

At the heart of this is the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran. There are historic roots to this, partly, but not exclusively, linked to the large Sunni and Shi’a majorities in each country. There is geopolitical and strategic competition, too, over the Gulf region and for expressing a wider vision for the Middle East.

While it can be tempting to think that Iran and Saudi are driven by ideology and doctrine, it is also important to recognise that there are multiple, often competing, voices within each state — from the military, for example, but also from within the religious authorities.

Peter Frankopan

It is also more fruitful to look at pragmatism, rather than ideology, as a driving force. In the case of Iran, the secular, atheist and socialist government of Assad proved no barrier to striking agreements to support Ba’athist control of Syria; while no clearer sign of the shifting tectonic plates can be shown than the reported invitation extended to the Saudi crown prince this week to visit Jerusalem by the Israeli intelligence minister, Yisrael Katz.

The rivalry between Saudi and Iran is being played out through a variety of proxies. Riyadh has little to show for its efforts to demonstrate its competence and capability. The attempts to isolate Qatar have backfired, prompting a warming of relations between Doha and Tehran. Clumsy intervention in Lebanon which saw the prime minister, Saad Hariri, kidnapped in all but name, failed to deliver the promised fruits of curtailing Iranian influence and again proved counterproductive.

And then there is Yemen, scene of the world’s most pressing humanitarian crisis — where 50,000 children alone are expected to die this year from starvation and disease — and where Saudi attempts to intervene have failed to deliver results quickly or effectively.

Part of the reason lies in the inexperience of Saudi Arabia, where the default setting has been to remain disengaged and introspective — to the point of suffocation. That is something that the crown prince is trying to change.

He is up against a Tehran that has built up networks since the 1979 revolution and has the expertise of being involved in low-cost, high-visibility involvement across the region. The rivalry is one that is uneasy to the point of dangerous.

Mohammad bin Salman’s recent comparison of Iran with Hitler’s Germany drew a stinging response from Tehran, as did his comment earlier this year about rising military tension between the two countries. Asked about a possible attack on Saudi Arabia by Tehran, the prince declared that he would order a first strike. “We will work to have the battle in Iran, rather than in Saudi Arabia,” he said.

Seasoned watchers do not set much store by such showboating, which is as much intended for domestic audiences as for the other side. Nevertheless, what is striking — and new — is the growing sense in the Middle East, just as across much of the rest of Asia, that the time has come for problems to be solved locally. Western interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan have gone badly wrong. Then there are the uncertainties about commitments such as the Iran nuclear deal that now looks in jeopardy as Trump picks sides, rather than tries to conciliate and lead.

This new age is summed up by the increasingly strident role that Iran sees itself playing. “The US and Russia cannot decide for Iran,” stated Mohammad Javad Zarif in November. “It’s our region.” The Saudis would dispute that. But the rivalries are real, sharp and dangerous.

Iran and Saudi Arabia are in transition as well as in competition. That makes what happens extraordinarily important, both because of the roles they play as oil producers, but also in determining the shape of the Middle East, Asia and global affairs. It serves to underline what a sideshow Brexit really is.

Peter Frankopan’s The Silk Roads: A New History of the World is published by Bloomsbury