New General Election 'mega poll' shows Tories pushed out behind Lib Dems in bloodbath

John Stevens

26 June 2024 at 2:46 pm·4-min read

Home Secretary James Cleverly, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary David Cameron — -Credit: (Image: PA)

The Tories are at risk of getting fewer MPs than the Liberal Democrats, according to a new mega-poll.

Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus surveyed almost 20,000 people and the results suggest 20 Cabinet ministers could lose their seats - including Rishi Sunak.

The poll predicts that Keir Stamer could see a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 250 seats - an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997, reports the Mirror.

If the results are repeated next week on election day, Labour would pick up 450 seats while the Tories would be reduced to just 60 MPs, behind the Lib Dems on 71.

Ministers set to lose their seats include the PM, Deputy PM Oliver Dowden, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch.

Grant Shapps, Michelle Donelan, Victoria Atkins, Claire Coutinho, Mel Stride, Esther McVey and Johnny Mercer are also at risk. Tories expected to survive who could fight a leadership election include James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat and Laura Trott.

The poll suggested that Reform UK could win around 18 seats, including those of Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson.

Over the last two weeks Find Out Now surveyed 19,993 people - which is around 10 times as many as a typical poll. The MRP (multi-level regression and post-stratification) method was used to successfully forecast the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Pollsters have found a wide variation when predicting the scale of the Tory defeat, but all signs suggest a catastrophic result for the party.

Labour is set to do well by having its supporters better distributed throughout the country than in previous elections when it piled up votes in seats it already held while missing out in marginals it needed to win.

Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus, said: "The Conservatives are predicted to be in third place in terms of both votes and seats. That would be a disaster for them. Labour look set for a massive landslide, but with about one million fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn got in 2017.”

The news comes after elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice warned that it was “too late” for Mr Sunak to turn things around.

Speaking at an event in London, he suggested the Tories could end up with anything between 50 and 150 MPs after July 4.

Asked if there was anything Mr Sunak could do at this late stage to revive things, Sir John said: "To be honest on Sunak it's too late. You're not going to turn around a campaign like that at this stage."

He told the event hosted by iNHouse Communications: "The fundamental mistakes were made by Boris and Liz Truss. The fundamental mistake they made was last autumn believing that tax cuts and a focus on immigration would be able to turn things around.

"Some of us could have told them, 'no, no, no, this is not going to work. You need to focus on the health service and you need to focus on trying to improve the economy'. And those are the two things that the party has really not wanted to focus on."

Find Out Now interviewed 19,993 adults in Britain online between June 14 and 24. Here are the results for Scotland.

Full results - who will win your seat?

Seat Name - Predicted Winner

Aberdeen North - SNP

Aberdeen South - SNP

Aberdeenshire North and Moray East - SNP

Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine - SNP

Airdrie and Shotts - Labour

Alloa and Grangemouth - SNP

Angus and Perthshire Glens - SNP

Arbroath and Broughty Ferry - SNP

Argyll, Bute and South Lochaber - SNP

Ayr Carrick and Cumnock - Labour

Ayrshire Central - Labour

Ayrshire North and Arran - SNP

Bathgate and Linlithgow - Labour

Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk - SNP

Caithness Sutherland and Easter Ross - Lib Dems

Coatbridge and Bellshill - Labour

Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy - Labour

Cumbernauld and Kirkintilloch - SNP

Dumfries and Galloway - SNP

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - Labour

Dunbartonshire West - Labour

Dundee Central - Labour

Dunfermline and Dollar - SNP

East Kilbride and Strathaven - Labour

Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - SNP

Edinburgh North and Leith - SNP

Edinburgh South - Labour

Edinburgh South West - Labour

Edinburgh West - Lib Dems

Falkirk - SNP

Fife North East - Lib Dems

Glasgow East - Labour

Glasgow North - Labour

Glasgow North East - Labour

Glasgow South - Labour

Glasgow South West - SNP

Glasgow West - Labour

Glenrothes and Mid Fife - SNP

Gordon and Buchan - SNP

Hamilton and Clyde Valley - Labour

Inverclyde and Renfrewshire West - Labour

Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire - SNP

Kilmarnock and Loudoun - Labour

Livingston - Labour

Lothian East - Labour

Mid Dunbartonshire - Lib Dems

Midlothian - Labour

Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey - SNP

Motherwell, Wishaw and Carluke - SNP

Na h-Eileanan An Iar (Western Isles) - SNP

Orkney and Shetland - Lib Dems

Paisley and Renfrewshire North - Labour

Paisley and Renfrewshire South - Labour

Perth and Kinross-shire - SNP

Renfrewshire East - Labour

Rutherglen - Labour

Stirling and Strathallan - Labour

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